THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 26th March KEMPTON PARK- 27th March WOLVERHAMPTON- 29th March WOLVERHAMPTON - 30th March LINGFIELD PARK, KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 31st March WOLVERHAMPTON & CHELMSFORD CITY - 1ST aPRIL LINGFIELD PARK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 2nd April KEMPTON PARK -

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Monday 31st March 2014

31st March 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:30 Download The BetVictor App Now Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m2f
98.8%*Mr Greenspan 
98.3%Graphene 
96.3%Abdication 
Arab Spring 
Suerte Al Salto 
Arable 
Flight Fight 
Miyachiku 
Pershing 

Lay-off the Kempton Park winners!

Although my wise words yesterday came to fruition regarding Kempton Park favouring horses that had run, won and competed over further, it helped little in pin-pointing winners. The surprises of the day where that 4 of the 7 winners made all and came from horses that had long lay-offs with only the last two races being won by horses that had run within the last month.

Having a horse that is capable of winning in listed class locked away since June 2013 as was the case with Contributor makes little sense. Equally, Salutation had been kept under lock and key since October 2013 after disappointing on heavy or soft ground on its previous five starts. Whether the trainer should be applauded for their ability to bring a horse to the course in such form after a lay off or admonished for their inability in finding opportunities for these horses is debatable.

It does bring to the fore that as a speed handicapper, to wary of the likely improvement of 2yo and 3yo horses after a lay off coming back as more mature 4yo’s. Although this will obviously vary from horse to horse, below is a chart taken from the past 5 years showing the average progression of 3yo’s through the year and when they are best able to compete with older rivals.


Enjoy your day of rest ;)

   

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 29th March 2014

29th March 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
1:50 Sara´s Super Smashing Great 40th Birthday Maiden Fillies´ Stakes (Bobis Race) Cl4 5f
Baileys Pursuit 
Beautifull Mind 
Charlie´s Star 
Ciaras Cookie 
Gold Waltz 
Just Marion 
Keep ´r Lit 
Low Cut Affair 
Powerfulstorm 
Tiggy Wiggy 

The virtues of Kempton Park and one for today!

I must say that it is a breath of fresh air having a quality Saturday afternoon card at Kempton Park. Once the first two races on the inner loop (5f, 10f) are out of the way, we have the benefit of watching some of the best racing on the day, on the fairest of the four All Weather courses. Not only does Kempton Park offer the longest straight on the outer loop, but where the inner and outer loop merge, jockeys have the opportunity to cut to the inside as the straight widens.

There are seldom any hard-luck stories at Kempton Park and it would be my suggestion to focus on those horses that are able to finish their races off, as opposed to those horses that barely get the trip. I would also suggest that any perceived draw bias is more a reflection on a horse’s chances rather than bias. Although, it would be wise to perhaps avoid those horses that need to race prominently that are drawn wide in large fields.

If there is a downside to the card it would be the distances, with two of the seven races over 7f and two over 11f, with sparse form on offer in the latter scenario I would be more inclined to err towards 12f form than 10f as the long straight is likely to find those wanting out.

We have all our eggs in one basket today with just the one ‘Profile’ horse and the selection will come as no surprise and hopeful provide some respectability to the week’s results.

Good luck to you all and enjoy your racing even if it is on that green stuff ;)

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 28th March 2014

28th March 2014 Dundalk
                 
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
                 
6:15 Dundalk Stadium Racecourse Of The Year Handicap 6f
98.8%   Ever Yours  98.8% (1)        
98.8% * Count Of Carabass  98.5% (2)        
98.6%   Go Placidly  98.0% (2)        
98.1%   Conocedor  98.1% (1)        
98.1%   Shinyhappyjohn  88.5% (1)        
97.5%   Fine Cut             
96.8%   Passified Lady  96.8% (1)        
96.6%   Alanna Bheag  96.6% (1)        
    Erwhons Gift             
    Dylan Express             
                 

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 28th March 2014

28th March 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:55 Best Odds At bookmakers.co.uk Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 5f216y
99.7% Dreese  99.8% (1)
98.8% * Baltic Gin  98.9% (1)
97.2% Parkhill Star  98.5% (1)
96.0% Busy Bimbo  97.3% (4)
93.1% Captain T 
Lucky Clover 
Meebo 

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 28th March 2014

28th March 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:00 32Red Casino Claiming Stakes Cl6 1m5f
102.3% A Little Bit Dusty 
101.4% * Incendo 
100.6% Tappanappa 
100.2% Ampleforth  98.5% (1)
97.7% Daring Indian 
96.3% Bert The Alert  98.4% (2)

Break the rules and still win! Turf snobbery and 3 for today.

How tolerant would we be to see a footballer putting the ball in the back off the net using his hand, the goals stands but the player is given a 4 day suspension? Or perhaps a bowler oversteps the crease and clean bowls the batsman, the wicket is given but the bowler gets a 4 day suspension! If a 4 day suspension was seen as an adequate punishment in the above scenarios you would expect the rule to be continually flouted. 

In Wolverhampton’s opener at 2:10 Connor Beasley, the jockey on first past the post Precision Strike was found to be in breach of using his whip above the permitted level and received a 4 day suspension. The horse kept 1st place and I am sure that if Mr Beasley finds himself in a similar situation, he will break the rule again! Even if stewards were allowed some discretion dependant on the proximity of rivals, given that our first ‘Profile’ horse Goldmadchen went down by only a nose, surely the common sense ruling would have been to demote the winner a place. Having circumstances where you are able to break the rules and still take the prize is irrational!

Perhaps the injustice was rewarded when another ‘Profile’ horse Just Five prevailed over Katmai River in another tight finish in the Wolverhampton finale. 2 x 1st, 2 x 2nd and 2 x Unplaced left me a little dissatisfied in what prove to be a reasonable day overall. We have three ‘Profile’ horses for you today and adding your email below this post will take you to the three horses. If you have previously submitted your email simply navigate to the usual URL.


You would think that there was no racing today with so much focus from the racing media on tomorrows start to the Flat Turf season. Even Hugh Taylor's first tip for today is for a race tomorrows Lincoln! And on the subject of the Lincoln, I can’t help but feel when looking at the race that the time for any snobbery over Turf as opposed to All Weather should be thrown out the window with only 3 runners in the race having not previously appeared on an artifice surface.


Have a great day Guys ;)


Kempton Park Horse Racing All Weather Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 27th March 2014

27th March 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:35 Dine In The Panoramic Restaurant Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 1m3f
101.8% * Martinas Delight 
Wannabe Your Man 
Come On Sunshine 
Gallic Destiny 
Norse Star 
Votary 
Full Moon Fever 

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 27th March 2014

27th March 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:10 Coral Mobile "Just Three Clicks To Bet" Handicap Cl6 1m4f50y
102.6% * Goldmadchen  100.5% (5)
101.7% Shirazz  100.2% (2)
101.5% Mazij  100.1% (13)
100.1% Qibtee  100.3% (1)
99.7% Precision Strike  101.0% (2)
99.5% Impeccability  100.7% (3)
97.2% Well Owd Mon  100.5% (4)
96.4% Felice 

Southwell All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 27th March 2014

27th March 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
02:00 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl5 7f
100.1% All Right Now  100.4% (4)
99.9% * Thrust Control 
99.8% Rio Cobolo  100.2% (4)
98.8% Arabian Flight  100.6% (5)
97.2% Marcus Caesar  97.2% (1)
96.4% Rafaaf 
95.4% Welliesinthewater 
Belle Intrigue 
Harvest Mist 

Why Light From Mars? Hugh Taylor v The Actuary and 6 of the best!

While yesterdays ‘Profile’ horses fared no better than a forbiddingly priced 1st, a 2nd and Unplaced, the wins of both selections in the Hugh Taylor v The Actuary challenged widened my advantage by a further 6.75 points to 72.65 for 2014.

To answer one of the reoccurring question from yesterday, post-race in ‘What drew me to posting the ratings for the Kempton 8:00 in particular’?

Of the horses mentioned: Pick A Little had a superior C&D average from 3 runs, Goodlukin Lucy had a superior C&D average from 2 runs, 8-1 winner, Light From Mars had a superior C&D average from 7 runs. It was hard to ignore that level of consistency and superiority. I would still stand by my convictions on the Pick A Little and Goodlukin Lucy but put in to order of preference, the number of superior runs has to be the conclusive factor. Ironically the two horses marked up as more tentative, Comedy House and Steelriver finished 2nd (4-1) and 3rd (7-1) respectively. Today the margins are tighter but the 2:00 Southwell, 2:40 Wolverhampton and 5:15 Southwell offer similar opportunities.

The ARC All Weather Jockey Championship is starting to hot up and it will be wise to keep your eye on the mounts of Adam Kirby (75 wins) and Luke Morris (71 wins). Today Adam Kirby attempts to get from the Midlands after two rides at Wolverhampton, the last being at 4:20 down to Kempton Park by 7:35 for a further three rides. Luke Morris shares the same time schedule but with three on the Wolverhampton card and two at Kempton Park. There is every chance that they may make the journey together in which case I would strongly suggest to Luke Morris that he does the driving ;)

With the frequency of narrow misses with horses placing, it would be hard to imagine that all 6 ‘Profile’ horses today would let us down and I would fully expect to return a profit on the selections. Adding your email below will take to the 6 horses. If you have previously submitted your email simply navigate to the usual URL.


Have a great day and enjoy!


Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 26th March 2014

26th March 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:30 Family Fun At Kempton 19.04.13 Apprentice Handicap Cl6 1m2f
100.3% * Cataria Girl 
100.1% Raamz  100.1% (1)
99.8% Bennelong  99.8% (2)
99.6% Diletta Tommasa 
98.9% South Cape 
95.2% Innoko 
94.4% Back On The Trail 

Southwell All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 26th March 2014

26th March 2014 Southwell
                 
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
                 
2:20 coral.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Claiming Stakes Cl6 1m4f
101.8% * Honoured  100.8% (4)        
96.2%   Bivouac  98.9% (5)      
    Flamenco Flyer             
    Maid Of Silk             
                 

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 26th March 2014

26th March 2014 Lingfield Park
                 
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
                 
2:00 bookmakers.co.uk Selling Stakes Cl6 6f
100.1%   Belle Bayardo  99.4% (6)        
99.5%   Drawnfromthepast  99.7% (5)      
99.1% * Hamoody  99.7% (3)      
98.5%   Alhaarth Beauty             
97.9%   Charleys Angel           
96.1%   Brean Splash Susie  92.9% (1)      
95.5%   Waterloo Dock  98.5% (40)    
                 

Southwell In-Running strategy and 3 for today!

It never ceases to amaze me at the number of jockeys that appear to be oblivious to the importance of staying off the inside rail at Southwell. You may be a little more forgiving to the lesser experienced Shirley Birkett on her ride on 2 point subscriber selection Sheila’s Heart who was ridden, almost the entire trip, hard up against Southwell's inside running rail. Given the proximity to the winner that Daniel Tudhope found himself at the line on 40-1 Zephyr I find unforgivable. There may be occasions where a jockey is given little choice in larger fields, but in a 4 horse race, to come down the rail where the surface runs so deep that it would easily account for far more than the beaten 1.1/2 length deficit .   
  
Running the rail may have also been the undoing of Hugh Taylor’s selection Returntobrecongill in the 4:35, although having recorded an extremely impressive LTO speed figure of 104.8, my top rated Arr’ Kid was always going to be a tough nut to crack and subscribers took full of advantage of Paddy Powers generosity in their 4-1 opening show.   

As we have the joys of another meeting at Southwell today I am sure that you could fill your boots playing on the exchange ‘in running’ markets simply by laying those horse whose jockeys chose the fool-hardy route of racing against the rail.

I am hopeful that there should no shortage of opportunities in the coming three days with a total of 9 meetings on the All Weather, and playing those horses that have an average rating which exceeds that of the top rated LTO is always an attractive play. Those falling in that category today include Pick A Little 4:20 Southwell, Goodlukin Lucy 5:20 Southwell,  Light From Mars 8:00 Kempton Park. More tentative due to having previously only raced once over C&D would be Comedy House 7:00 and Steelriver 8:30 at Kempton Park.

Of our two ‘Profile’ horses yesterday, Alumina was certainly not too hard to find but it was disappointing that Adili in the previous race accounted for the odds on favourite Sir Frank Morgan with consummate ease only to be beaten by 29 race maiden Teajaybe. We have three profile horses today which are yours by adding your email below. If you have already submitted your email just navigate to the usual link.




Have a great day Guys



Southwell Al Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 25th March 2014

25th March 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:20 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl6 1m
100.3% * Auden  99.4% (2)
100.2% Hail Promenader  99.5% (2)
98.9% Solarmaite  99.0% (5)
98.2% Bapak Pesta  98.1% (3)
97.6% Elusive Warrior  99.0% (9)
95.9% Xclusive  97.7% (3)
Mists Of Time 
Silver Fawn 

39-1 (Betfair) for a horse whos trainer has a 31% strike rate at Southwell

Of the horses that I suggested keeping your eye on yesterday: 3:10 Ishisoba was declared a non-runner, Vhujon belied its odds as the 16-1 outsider finishing 6th of 11 beaten 5.3/4 lengths. More poignant is that this was from the bottom of the handicap. 3:40 Master Of Disguise (25-1) again, the outsider of the party and at the bottom of the Handicap only beat one home which would suggest his day is no nearer. This also applies to 5:10 Safwaan. 5:40 Dozy Joe (the only horse of those mentioned that ran over its LTO trip, was at the top of the handicap, won with consummate ease.

Each of the horses mentioned were running over a favourable trip but not necessarily in the company that would see them competitive. I will be very surprised if Vhujon was not placed in weaker company next time out given yesterday’s performance with a view to it being far more competitive without damaging its OR. I would also suggest that Master Of Disguise and Saafwan will likely be placed in races over alternative trips while they are bought to the boil.

Only 2 of the 7 Wolverhampton winners were unraced on the surface and both received solid market support (Indian Trifone, Life And Times) and with a high percentage of horses coming to the surface for the first time today at Southwell the game changes. I feel that distance becomes less an issue and finding horses that can just keep rolling on the Fibresand is key.  

Of the 7 races on offer, only the 3:25 has a full complement of horses previously raced on Fibresand with the 4:00 offering my best sire stats for the newcomers. Sandwiching the market we have Tarrafal (Shamardal) and Zephyr (Shirooco) both rating at 40% for their respective sires in this Class and over this trip, with the former and Mark Johnston trained horse Tarrafal offering the more attractive form line, but this surface can be a great leveller and Karl Burkes 30% strike rate at the course is hard to ignore at 39 on the exchanges!

There were no profile horses yesterday but we have a couple for you today, adding your email below should take you straight to them. If you have already submitted your email just navigate to the usual link.


I am sure we are in for an interesting day so enjoy ;) 

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Ratings -Monday 24th March 2014

24th March 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:40 32Red Mermaids Millions Slot Fillies´ Handicap Cl5 5f216y
100.4% * Oasis Spirit 
99.6% Megaleka 
98.8% Amosite  99.3% (1)
98.3% Climaxfortackle  98.1% (11)
97.9% Star Up In The Sky 
97.8% Laughing Rock  97.8% (1)
97.7% Beylerbey 

Why the market doesn't always reflect horse true chances on the All Weather

As spectacular as Saturdays Lingfield Park card was, for someone who bases their race analysis on what horses have previously done on an artifice surface rather than suppositions, the disappointment was undoubtedly the success of horse previously un-raced on the surface. With winners Stepper Point 16-1, Ertijaal 5-4 and Van Percy 5-4 all making their débuts on the surface on the 7 race card.

Saturdays Lingfield Park card kicked off with an apprentice 1m 5f race where only 3 of the 6 runners had infrequently tackled the trip or beyond resulting in the two outsiders of the field taking the first two places. Perhaps this is what sets the All Weather apart from racing on Turf, where the trainers, due to the consistency of the surface are more than willing to chop and change trip. Recognising the most favourable trips in terms of times recorded rather than distance beaten by is in my opinion pivotal. With the market bias favouring recent form, trainer success and jockey bookings, there is a tendency to disregard the trip. 

The opening race at Wolverhampton today (2:40) is a typical example where only 3 of the 7 runners ran over today’s trip of 6f LTO. Favourite Oasis Water last raced over a mile which is more in line with its breeding and has only got its head in front once in a Maiden from 3 starts over todays trip. Second favourite and Maiden, Beylerbey has raced over 8f, 8f, 6f and 7f in its four starts. The one 6f start saw it beaten 8 lengths. Star Up In The Sky has 2 wins over today's trip BUT that was at Southwell! Today is a different proposition and on this surface and Turf, Star Up In The Sky has been beaten over 10 lengths on each of its four attempts. Laughing Rock opened its account at the first time of asking over 7f in 2012 and was pushed up to 11f after 2 further attempts over 7f. After winning over 6f at Leicester has raced almost exclusively over 6f, the last 4 starts at Southwell. Megaleka, from 29 starts has raced over 6f only 4 times, beaten in excess of 10 lengths on each occasion. Climaxfortackle has won twice over 9f and twice over 6f, three of these wins were at Wolverhampton. Amosite has won 6 times with 4 wins over 7f, 1 win over 6f (June 2012) and 1 win over 5f. With the exception of one win, Amosite made virtually all!

The short synopsis of the 2:40 suggests to me that the market might just be a little upside-down and we may see a similar scenario as played out in Lingfield Parks first race.

As commendable as LTO form may look, the trip has to be a key indicator of the trainers intentions and it may be worth keep a close eye on Ishisoba and Vhujon in the 3:10. Master Of Disguise 3:40, Safwaan 5:10 and Dozy Joe 5:40

Thanks to all those well-wishers after my operation, it is very much appreciated. A good week of results this week would be the ideal medicine and I will get this years P&L up to date and on the blog ASAP.

Have a great day guys!


Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Monday, March 31, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Monday 31st March 2014

31st March 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:30 Download The BetVictor App Now Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m2f
98.8%*Mr Greenspan 
98.3%Graphene 
96.3%Abdication 
Arab Spring 
Suerte Al Salto 
Arable 
Flight Fight 
Miyachiku 
Pershing 

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Lay-off the Kempton Park winners!

Although my wise words yesterday came to fruition regarding Kempton Park favouring horses that had run, won and competed over further, it helped little in pin-pointing winners. The surprises of the day where that 4 of the 7 winners made all and came from horses that had long lay-offs with only the last two races being won by horses that had run within the last month.

Having a horse that is capable of winning in listed class locked away since June 2013 as was the case with Contributor makes little sense. Equally, Salutation had been kept under lock and key since October 2013 after disappointing on heavy or soft ground on its previous five starts. Whether the trainer should be applauded for their ability to bring a horse to the course in such form after a lay off or admonished for their inability in finding opportunities for these horses is debatable.

It does bring to the fore that as a speed handicapper, to wary of the likely improvement of 2yo and 3yo horses after a lay off coming back as more mature 4yo’s. Although this will obviously vary from horse to horse, below is a chart taken from the past 5 years showing the average progression of 3yo’s through the year and when they are best able to compete with older rivals.


Enjoy your day of rest ;)

   

Saturday, March 29, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 29th March 2014

29th March 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
1:50 Sara´s Super Smashing Great 40th Birthday Maiden Fillies´ Stakes (Bobis Race) Cl4 5f
Baileys Pursuit 
Beautifull Mind 
Charlie´s Star 
Ciaras Cookie 
Gold Waltz 
Just Marion 
Keep ´r Lit 
Low Cut Affair 
Powerfulstorm 
Tiggy Wiggy 

The virtues of Kempton Park and one for today!

I must say that it is a breath of fresh air having a quality Saturday afternoon card at Kempton Park. Once the first two races on the inner loop (5f, 10f) are out of the way, we have the benefit of watching some of the best racing on the day, on the fairest of the four All Weather courses. Not only does Kempton Park offer the longest straight on the outer loop, but where the inner and outer loop merge, jockeys have the opportunity to cut to the inside as the straight widens.

There are seldom any hard-luck stories at Kempton Park and it would be my suggestion to focus on those horses that are able to finish their races off, as opposed to those horses that barely get the trip. I would also suggest that any perceived draw bias is more a reflection on a horse’s chances rather than bias. Although, it would be wise to perhaps avoid those horses that need to race prominently that are drawn wide in large fields.

If there is a downside to the card it would be the distances, with two of the seven races over 7f and two over 11f, with sparse form on offer in the latter scenario I would be more inclined to err towards 12f form than 10f as the long straight is likely to find those wanting out.

We have all our eggs in one basket today with just the one ‘Profile’ horse and the selection will come as no surprise and hopeful provide some respectability to the week’s results.

Good luck to you all and enjoy your racing even if it is on that green stuff ;)

Friday, March 28, 2014

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 28th March 2014

28th March 2014 Dundalk
                 
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
                 
6:15 Dundalk Stadium Racecourse Of The Year Handicap 6f
98.8%   Ever Yours  98.8% (1)        
98.8% * Count Of Carabass  98.5% (2)        
98.6%   Go Placidly  98.0% (2)        
98.1%   Conocedor  98.1% (1)        
98.1%   Shinyhappyjohn  88.5% (1)        
97.5%   Fine Cut             
96.8%   Passified Lady  96.8% (1)        
96.6%   Alanna Bheag  96.6% (1)        
    Erwhons Gift             
    Dylan Express             
                 

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 28th March 2014

28th March 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:55 Best Odds At bookmakers.co.uk Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 5f216y
99.7% Dreese  99.8% (1)
98.8% * Baltic Gin  98.9% (1)
97.2% Parkhill Star  98.5% (1)
96.0% Busy Bimbo  97.3% (4)
93.1% Captain T 
Lucky Clover 
Meebo 

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 28th March 2014

28th March 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:00 32Red Casino Claiming Stakes Cl6 1m5f
102.3% A Little Bit Dusty 
101.4% * Incendo 
100.6% Tappanappa 
100.2% Ampleforth  98.5% (1)
97.7% Daring Indian 
96.3% Bert The Alert  98.4% (2)

Break the rules and still win! Turf snobbery and 3 for today.

How tolerant would we be to see a footballer putting the ball in the back off the net using his hand, the goals stands but the player is given a 4 day suspension? Or perhaps a bowler oversteps the crease and clean bowls the batsman, the wicket is given but the bowler gets a 4 day suspension! If a 4 day suspension was seen as an adequate punishment in the above scenarios you would expect the rule to be continually flouted. 

In Wolverhampton’s opener at 2:10 Connor Beasley, the jockey on first past the post Precision Strike was found to be in breach of using his whip above the permitted level and received a 4 day suspension. The horse kept 1st place and I am sure that if Mr Beasley finds himself in a similar situation, he will break the rule again! Even if stewards were allowed some discretion dependant on the proximity of rivals, given that our first ‘Profile’ horse Goldmadchen went down by only a nose, surely the common sense ruling would have been to demote the winner a place. Having circumstances where you are able to break the rules and still take the prize is irrational!

Perhaps the injustice was rewarded when another ‘Profile’ horse Just Five prevailed over Katmai River in another tight finish in the Wolverhampton finale. 2 x 1st, 2 x 2nd and 2 x Unplaced left me a little dissatisfied in what prove to be a reasonable day overall. We have three ‘Profile’ horses for you today and adding your email below this post will take you to the three horses. If you have previously submitted your email simply navigate to the usual URL.


You would think that there was no racing today with so much focus from the racing media on tomorrows start to the Flat Turf season. Even Hugh Taylor's first tip for today is for a race tomorrows Lincoln! And on the subject of the Lincoln, I can’t help but feel when looking at the race that the time for any snobbery over Turf as opposed to All Weather should be thrown out the window with only 3 runners in the race having not previously appeared on an artifice surface.


Have a great day Guys ;)


Thursday, March 27, 2014

Kempton Park Horse Racing All Weather Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 27th March 2014

27th March 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:35 Dine In The Panoramic Restaurant Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 1m3f
101.8% * Martinas Delight 
Wannabe Your Man 
Come On Sunshine 
Gallic Destiny 
Norse Star 
Votary 
Full Moon Fever 

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 27th March 2014

27th March 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:10 Coral Mobile "Just Three Clicks To Bet" Handicap Cl6 1m4f50y
102.6% * Goldmadchen  100.5% (5)
101.7% Shirazz  100.2% (2)
101.5% Mazij  100.1% (13)
100.1% Qibtee  100.3% (1)
99.7% Precision Strike  101.0% (2)
99.5% Impeccability  100.7% (3)
97.2% Well Owd Mon  100.5% (4)
96.4% Felice 

Southwell All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 27th March 2014

27th March 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
02:00 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl5 7f
100.1% All Right Now  100.4% (4)
99.9% * Thrust Control 
99.8% Rio Cobolo  100.2% (4)
98.8% Arabian Flight  100.6% (5)
97.2% Marcus Caesar  97.2% (1)
96.4% Rafaaf 
95.4% Welliesinthewater 
Belle Intrigue 
Harvest Mist 

Why Light From Mars? Hugh Taylor v The Actuary and 6 of the best!

While yesterdays ‘Profile’ horses fared no better than a forbiddingly priced 1st, a 2nd and Unplaced, the wins of both selections in the Hugh Taylor v The Actuary challenged widened my advantage by a further 6.75 points to 72.65 for 2014.

To answer one of the reoccurring question from yesterday, post-race in ‘What drew me to posting the ratings for the Kempton 8:00 in particular’?

Of the horses mentioned: Pick A Little had a superior C&D average from 3 runs, Goodlukin Lucy had a superior C&D average from 2 runs, 8-1 winner, Light From Mars had a superior C&D average from 7 runs. It was hard to ignore that level of consistency and superiority. I would still stand by my convictions on the Pick A Little and Goodlukin Lucy but put in to order of preference, the number of superior runs has to be the conclusive factor. Ironically the two horses marked up as more tentative, Comedy House and Steelriver finished 2nd (4-1) and 3rd (7-1) respectively. Today the margins are tighter but the 2:00 Southwell, 2:40 Wolverhampton and 5:15 Southwell offer similar opportunities.

The ARC All Weather Jockey Championship is starting to hot up and it will be wise to keep your eye on the mounts of Adam Kirby (75 wins) and Luke Morris (71 wins). Today Adam Kirby attempts to get from the Midlands after two rides at Wolverhampton, the last being at 4:20 down to Kempton Park by 7:35 for a further three rides. Luke Morris shares the same time schedule but with three on the Wolverhampton card and two at Kempton Park. There is every chance that they may make the journey together in which case I would strongly suggest to Luke Morris that he does the driving ;)

With the frequency of narrow misses with horses placing, it would be hard to imagine that all 6 ‘Profile’ horses today would let us down and I would fully expect to return a profit on the selections. Adding your email below will take to the 6 horses. If you have previously submitted your email simply navigate to the usual URL.


Have a great day and enjoy!


Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 26th March 2014

26th March 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:30 Family Fun At Kempton 19.04.13 Apprentice Handicap Cl6 1m2f
100.3% * Cataria Girl 
100.1% Raamz  100.1% (1)
99.8% Bennelong  99.8% (2)
99.6% Diletta Tommasa 
98.9% South Cape 
95.2% Innoko 
94.4% Back On The Trail 

Southwell All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 26th March 2014

26th March 2014 Southwell
                 
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
                 
2:20 coral.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed Claiming Stakes Cl6 1m4f
101.8% * Honoured  100.8% (4)        
96.2%   Bivouac  98.9% (5)      
    Flamenco Flyer             
    Maid Of Silk             
                 

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 26th March 2014

26th March 2014 Lingfield Park
                 
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
                 
2:00 bookmakers.co.uk Selling Stakes Cl6 6f
100.1%   Belle Bayardo  99.4% (6)        
99.5%   Drawnfromthepast  99.7% (5)      
99.1% * Hamoody  99.7% (3)      
98.5%   Alhaarth Beauty             
97.9%   Charleys Angel           
96.1%   Brean Splash Susie  92.9% (1)      
95.5%   Waterloo Dock  98.5% (40)    
                 

Southwell In-Running strategy and 3 for today!

It never ceases to amaze me at the number of jockeys that appear to be oblivious to the importance of staying off the inside rail at Southwell. You may be a little more forgiving to the lesser experienced Shirley Birkett on her ride on 2 point subscriber selection Sheila’s Heart who was ridden, almost the entire trip, hard up against Southwell's inside running rail. Given the proximity to the winner that Daniel Tudhope found himself at the line on 40-1 Zephyr I find unforgivable. There may be occasions where a jockey is given little choice in larger fields, but in a 4 horse race, to come down the rail where the surface runs so deep that it would easily account for far more than the beaten 1.1/2 length deficit .   
  
Running the rail may have also been the undoing of Hugh Taylor’s selection Returntobrecongill in the 4:35, although having recorded an extremely impressive LTO speed figure of 104.8, my top rated Arr’ Kid was always going to be a tough nut to crack and subscribers took full of advantage of Paddy Powers generosity in their 4-1 opening show.   

As we have the joys of another meeting at Southwell today I am sure that you could fill your boots playing on the exchange ‘in running’ markets simply by laying those horse whose jockeys chose the fool-hardy route of racing against the rail.

I am hopeful that there should no shortage of opportunities in the coming three days with a total of 9 meetings on the All Weather, and playing those horses that have an average rating which exceeds that of the top rated LTO is always an attractive play. Those falling in that category today include Pick A Little 4:20 Southwell, Goodlukin Lucy 5:20 Southwell,  Light From Mars 8:00 Kempton Park. More tentative due to having previously only raced once over C&D would be Comedy House 7:00 and Steelriver 8:30 at Kempton Park.

Of our two ‘Profile’ horses yesterday, Alumina was certainly not too hard to find but it was disappointing that Adili in the previous race accounted for the odds on favourite Sir Frank Morgan with consummate ease only to be beaten by 29 race maiden Teajaybe. We have three profile horses today which are yours by adding your email below. If you have already submitted your email just navigate to the usual link.




Have a great day Guys



Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Southwell Al Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 25th March 2014

25th March 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:20 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl6 1m
100.3% * Auden  99.4% (2)
100.2% Hail Promenader  99.5% (2)
98.9% Solarmaite  99.0% (5)
98.2% Bapak Pesta  98.1% (3)
97.6% Elusive Warrior  99.0% (9)
95.9% Xclusive  97.7% (3)
Mists Of Time 
Silver Fawn 

39-1 (Betfair) for a horse whos trainer has a 31% strike rate at Southwell

Of the horses that I suggested keeping your eye on yesterday: 3:10 Ishisoba was declared a non-runner, Vhujon belied its odds as the 16-1 outsider finishing 6th of 11 beaten 5.3/4 lengths. More poignant is that this was from the bottom of the handicap. 3:40 Master Of Disguise (25-1) again, the outsider of the party and at the bottom of the Handicap only beat one home which would suggest his day is no nearer. This also applies to 5:10 Safwaan. 5:40 Dozy Joe (the only horse of those mentioned that ran over its LTO trip, was at the top of the handicap, won with consummate ease.

Each of the horses mentioned were running over a favourable trip but not necessarily in the company that would see them competitive. I will be very surprised if Vhujon was not placed in weaker company next time out given yesterday’s performance with a view to it being far more competitive without damaging its OR. I would also suggest that Master Of Disguise and Saafwan will likely be placed in races over alternative trips while they are bought to the boil.

Only 2 of the 7 Wolverhampton winners were unraced on the surface and both received solid market support (Indian Trifone, Life And Times) and with a high percentage of horses coming to the surface for the first time today at Southwell the game changes. I feel that distance becomes less an issue and finding horses that can just keep rolling on the Fibresand is key.  

Of the 7 races on offer, only the 3:25 has a full complement of horses previously raced on Fibresand with the 4:00 offering my best sire stats for the newcomers. Sandwiching the market we have Tarrafal (Shamardal) and Zephyr (Shirooco) both rating at 40% for their respective sires in this Class and over this trip, with the former and Mark Johnston trained horse Tarrafal offering the more attractive form line, but this surface can be a great leveller and Karl Burkes 30% strike rate at the course is hard to ignore at 39 on the exchanges!

There were no profile horses yesterday but we have a couple for you today, adding your email below should take you straight to them. If you have already submitted your email just navigate to the usual link.


I am sure we are in for an interesting day so enjoy ;) 

Monday, March 24, 2014

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Ratings -Monday 24th March 2014

24th March 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:40 32Red Mermaids Millions Slot Fillies´ Handicap Cl5 5f216y
100.4% * Oasis Spirit 
99.6% Megaleka 
98.8% Amosite  99.3% (1)
98.3% Climaxfortackle  98.1% (11)
97.9% Star Up In The Sky 
97.8% Laughing Rock  97.8% (1)
97.7% Beylerbey 

Why the market doesn't always reflect horse true chances on the All Weather

As spectacular as Saturdays Lingfield Park card was, for someone who bases their race analysis on what horses have previously done on an artifice surface rather than suppositions, the disappointment was undoubtedly the success of horse previously un-raced on the surface. With winners Stepper Point 16-1, Ertijaal 5-4 and Van Percy 5-4 all making their débuts on the surface on the 7 race card.

Saturdays Lingfield Park card kicked off with an apprentice 1m 5f race where only 3 of the 6 runners had infrequently tackled the trip or beyond resulting in the two outsiders of the field taking the first two places. Perhaps this is what sets the All Weather apart from racing on Turf, where the trainers, due to the consistency of the surface are more than willing to chop and change trip. Recognising the most favourable trips in terms of times recorded rather than distance beaten by is in my opinion pivotal. With the market bias favouring recent form, trainer success and jockey bookings, there is a tendency to disregard the trip. 

The opening race at Wolverhampton today (2:40) is a typical example where only 3 of the 7 runners ran over today’s trip of 6f LTO. Favourite Oasis Water last raced over a mile which is more in line with its breeding and has only got its head in front once in a Maiden from 3 starts over todays trip. Second favourite and Maiden, Beylerbey has raced over 8f, 8f, 6f and 7f in its four starts. The one 6f start saw it beaten 8 lengths. Star Up In The Sky has 2 wins over today's trip BUT that was at Southwell! Today is a different proposition and on this surface and Turf, Star Up In The Sky has been beaten over 10 lengths on each of its four attempts. Laughing Rock opened its account at the first time of asking over 7f in 2012 and was pushed up to 11f after 2 further attempts over 7f. After winning over 6f at Leicester has raced almost exclusively over 6f, the last 4 starts at Southwell. Megaleka, from 29 starts has raced over 6f only 4 times, beaten in excess of 10 lengths on each occasion. Climaxfortackle has won twice over 9f and twice over 6f, three of these wins were at Wolverhampton. Amosite has won 6 times with 4 wins over 7f, 1 win over 6f (June 2012) and 1 win over 5f. With the exception of one win, Amosite made virtually all!

The short synopsis of the 2:40 suggests to me that the market might just be a little upside-down and we may see a similar scenario as played out in Lingfield Parks first race.

As commendable as LTO form may look, the trip has to be a key indicator of the trainers intentions and it may be worth keep a close eye on Ishisoba and Vhujon in the 3:10. Master Of Disguise 3:40, Safwaan 5:10 and Dozy Joe 5:40

Thanks to all those well-wishers after my operation, it is very much appreciated. A good week of results this week would be the ideal medicine and I will get this years P&L up to date and on the blog ASAP.

Have a great day guys!