The complexities of Horse Racing provide numerous variables, each having varying degrees of importance. Although more data could be offered to assist in findings winners, we could very easily end up unable to see the wood for the trees. There is no doubt that the make-up of each race offers different conundrums, but what is offered daily through this blog I believe to be sufficient information to lead readers in the right direction regarding finding your own selections.
Examples from today's post:
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| 5:10 Best Odds At bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Cl6 6f |
| 100.2% | * | Solarmaite | 100.3% | (2) | | ❶ | | |
| 99.6% | | Masked Dance | 99.4% | (7) | | ❶ | | |
| 99.5% | | Caramelita | 99.4% | (8) | | ❶ | | |
| 99.2% | | Dancing Freddy | 99.3% | (7) | | ❶ | | |
| 99.2% | | Masai Moon | 100.5% | (3) | | | | |
| 98.8% | | Izzy Boy | 98.2% | (1) | | | | |
| 98.7% | | Sewn Up | 99.3% | (2) | | | | |
| 98.6% | | Laughing Rock | 98.7% | (2) | | | | |
| 97.9% | | Avonmore Star | 97.9% | (1) | | ❶ | | |
| | | | | |
In column (1) we have each horses last time out rating and in this race only Solarmaite ran above standard (100%) for the course and distance it last competed over. Solarmaite has run twice over C&D, indicated in brackets (2) and has averaged 100.3% so should be viewed as a lively contender. As we look further down the list only Masai Moon looks to be better favoured over this C&D with an average of 100.5% from (3) runs. It is important not to ignore the number of runs over C&D. A high average after several runs is obviously far more attractive in terms of consistency than 1 run which should be viewed with caution and further investigation regarding how the horse performed.
The * denotes the fastest horse prior to any adjustments and does not signify a selection as is commonly supposed. The final column ❶ is primarily to assist where a horse has not previously figured on an All Weather surface and indicates the breeding merits over the trip and in this class.
RESULT: MASAI MOON 1ST 6-1
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| 4:10 Download The Ladbrokes App Handicap Cl6 7f |
| 101.0% | * | Mucky Molly | 98.7% | (9) | | ❶ | | |
| 100.9% | | Very First Blade | 98.7% | (1) | | ❶ | | |
| 99.9% | | Elusive Warrior | 99.1% | (43) | ❶ | | |
| 99.7% | * | De Lesseps | 99.4% | (2) | | ❷ | | |
| 97.8% | | Shamiana | | | | | | |
| 97.8% | | All Right Now | 100.5% | (3) | | ❷ | | |
| 97.7% | | Fast On | 98.1% | (1) | | | | |
| 97.1% | | Chez Vrony | 99.0% | (3) | | | | |
| 97.0% | | Mobley Chaos | 97.7% | (1) | | | | |
| 94.1% | | Au Renoir | | | | | | |
| | Roxy Lane | | | | | | |
| |
In the example above, although Mucky Molly and Very First Blade have put in the best LTO performances, their respective C&D ratings would suggest, in the case of Mucky Molly with an average of 98.7% from 9 runs that today is not the day. I would exercise a little more caution in the case of Very First Blade who has had only the one appearance over this C&D. We have no handle on Shamiana, Au Renoir or Roxy Lane. All Right Now with its superior C&D rating (100.5%) from 3 runs should be given respect.
RESULT: ALL RIGHT NOW 9-2
| 3:40 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl4 1m |
| 102.7% | | Mondlicht | 102.7% | (1) | | | | |
| 101.4% | * | Karaka Jack | | | | ❶ | | |
| 100.0% | | Greyfriarschorista | 100.7% | (7) | | ❷ | | |
| 99.8% | | Askaud | 99.9% | (1) | | | | |
| 99.3% | | Tatting | 100.1% | (5) | | ❶ | | |
| 98.8% | | Warfare | 99.5% | (2) | | | | |
| 98.5% | | Toymaker | 98.5% | (1) | | | | |
| 98.0% | | Tartan Trip | | | | | | |
| | Showboating | | | | ❺ |
In the 3:40 as favourable as Mondlicht looks at first glance returning to the same C&D which it recorded the best LTO and C&D figure in the race, consideration should also be made for Karaka Jack who record a well above average time LTO and we are yet to get a handle on how well it may perform over this distance. Showboating should also be given further investigation for its first time on this surface with a Sire rating of ❺
If Mondlicht remains your poison of choice I would be very cautious on to skinny a price.
RESULT: MONDLICHT 1ST 11-10
No two races look the same but with a practised eye you can soon see patterns and desirable conditions emerging in races. Below we have The Actuary ratings for yesterdays Lingfield Park card. It is well worth looking retrospectively at where your money might have been placed.
Remember, we don't need to be right every time to make a profit and if you maintain level stakes you will find yourself winning in spades and losing only a trickle ;)
Hope this helps.
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| 3rd March 2014 Lingfield Park |
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| The Actuary All Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. |
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| 1:45 Coral Mobile "Just Three Clicks To Bet" Handicap Cl6 1m2f |
| 101.8% | | India´s Song | 100.0% | (1) | | ❶ | | |
| 99.9% | | Travel | | | | ❷ | | |
| 99.8% | | Do More Business | 98.0% | (1) | | ❶ | | |
| 99.6% | * | Cataria Girl | | | | | | |
| 99.5% | | Copperwood | 99.4% | (3) | | ❶ | | |
| 98.8% | | Super Duplex | 98.9% | (1) | | | | |
| 98.1% | | Indian Violet | 98.4% | (6) | | ❶ | | |
| 98.0% | | Legal Legacy | 97.9% | (7) | | | | |
| 97.2% | | Tide Runner | | | | ❶ | | |
| | | | | | | | |
2:15 32Red Mega Moolah Millionaires Claiming Stakes Cl6 1m |
| 99.6% | * | Black Vale | 100.9% | (1) | | | | |
| 98.3% | | No Refund | 98.1% | (2) | | ❶ | | |
| 98.3% | | Autopilot | | | | ❶ | | |
| 97.7% | | Lucky Dottie | 94.1% | (1) | | | | |
| 97.2% | | Prisca | | | | ❶ | | |
| 97.1% | | Penara | 98.8% | (1) | | ❶ | | |
| 95.6% | | Diamond Back | 95.6% | (1) | | ❶ | | |
| 94.5% | | Hannah Louise | 96.0% | (1) | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| 2:50 Best Odds At bookmakers.co.uk Maiden Stakes Cl5 6f |
| 99.3% | * | Role Reversal | 99.3% | (1) | | ❷ | | |
| 98.1% | | Beylerbey | | | | | | |
| 97.4% | | Cocoa´s Princess | | | | ❶ | | |
| 95.9% | | O´Raghallaigh | | | | | | |
| | Bush Warrior | | | | ❷ | | |
| | Double Up | | | | ❶ | | |
| | Willy Brennan | | | | ❷ | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| 3:20 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl5 7f |
| 101.5% | | Afkar | 99.6% | (3) | | ❶ | | |
| 101.1% | | Seek The Fair Land | 100.5% | (15) | ❶ | | |
| 101.0% | | Fanoos | | | | | | |
| 100.8% | | Gracious George | | | | ❶ | | |
| 100.6% | | Hillbilly Boy | 101.0% | (1) | | ❶ | | |
| 100.5% | * | Club House | 98.4% | (6) | | ❶ | | |
| 100.2% | | Sulis Minerva | 99.5% | (2) | | | | |
| 100.2% | | The Happy Hammer | 100.1% | (7) | | ❶ | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| 3:55 bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Cl5 6f |
| 100.2% | * | Parisian Pyramid | 99.5% | (6) | | ❶ | | |
| 100.1% | | Volito | 99.6% | (6) | | | | |
| 99.9% | | Temple Road | 99.6% | (7) | | | | |
| 99.8% | | The Dancing Lord | 98.9% | (6) | | | | |
| 99.3% | | Where´s Reiley | 99.4% | (3) | | ❶ | | |
| 99.1% | | R Woody | 93.2% | (1) | | | | |
| 98.8% | | Burnhope | 98.5% | (1) | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| 4:25 coral.co.uk Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m2f |
| 99.2% | | Dance Of Heroes | | | | ❶ | | |
| 99.1% | * | After The Storm | | | | ❶ | | |
| 97.5% | | Son Of Feyan | | | | ❶ | | |
| 97.5% | | Roskilly | | | | | | |
| 97.4% | | Moontown | | | | | | |
| 97.2% | | Song And Dance Man | | | | ❶ | | |
| 96.9% | | Dark Tsarina | 97.3% | (2) | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| 4:55 32Red.com Handicap Cl5 1m2f |
| 102.0% | | Izbushka | 98.6% | (2) | | | | |
| 101.5% | * | Tizlove Regardless | | | | | | |
| 99.5% | | Zamra | | | | ❷ | | |
| 97.6% | | Turnbury | 97.6% | (1) | | ❷ | | |
| 97.3% | | Samtu | 98.4% | (2) | | ❶ | | |
| | Arianrhod | | | | | | |
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