THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 26th March KEMPTON PARK- 27th March WOLVERHAMPTON- 29th March WOLVERHAMPTON - 30th March LINGFIELD PARK, KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 31st March WOLVERHAMPTON & CHELMSFORD CITY - 1ST aPRIL LINGFIELD PARK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 2nd April KEMPTON PARK -

Using The Actuary Speed Handicap Ratings

The complexities of Horse Racing provide numerous variables, each having varying degrees of importance. Although more data could be offered to assist in findings winners, we could very easily end up unable to see the wood for the trees. There is no doubt that the make-up of each race offers different conundrums, but what is offered daily through this blog I believe to be sufficient information to lead readers in the right direction regarding finding your own selections.

Examples from today's post:
5:10 Best Odds At bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Cl6 6f
100.2%*Solarmaite 100.3%(2)
99.6%Masked Dance 99.4%(7)
99.5%Caramelita 99.4%(8)
99.2%Dancing Freddy 99.3%(7)
99.2%Masai Moon 100.5%(3)
98.8%Izzy Boy 98.2%(1)
98.7%Sewn Up 99.3%(2)
98.6%Laughing Rock 98.7%(2)
97.9%Avonmore Star 97.9%(1)
In column (1) we have each horses last time out rating and in this race only Solarmaite ran above standard (100%) for the course and distance it last competed over. Solarmaite has run twice over C&D, indicated in brackets (2) and has averaged 100.3% so should be viewed as a lively contender. As we look further down the list only Masai Moon looks to be better favoured over this C&D with an average of 100.5% from (3) runs. It is important not to ignore the number of runs over C&D. A high average after several runs is obviously far more attractive in terms of consistency than 1 run which should be viewed with caution and further investigation regarding how the horse performed.

The * denotes the fastest horse prior to any adjustments and does not signify a selection as is commonly supposed. The final column  is primarily to assist where a horse has not previously figured on an All Weather surface and indicates the breeding merits over the trip and in this class.

RESULT: MASAI MOON 1ST 6-1

4:10 Download The Ladbrokes App Handicap Cl6 7f
101.0%*Mucky Molly 98.7%(9)
100.9%Very First Blade 98.7%(1)
99.9%Elusive Warrior 99.1%(43)
99.7%*De Lesseps 99.4%(2)
97.8%Shamiana 
97.8%All Right Now 100.5%(3)
97.7%Fast On 98.1%(1)
97.1%Chez Vrony 99.0%(3)
97.0%Mobley Chaos 97.7%(1)
94.1%Au Renoir 
Roxy Lane 
In the example above, although Mucky Molly and Very First Blade have put in the best LTO performances, their respective C&D ratings would suggest, in the case of Mucky Molly with an average of 98.7% from 9 runs that today is not the day. I would exercise a little more caution in the case of Very First Blade who has had only the one appearance over this C&D. We have no handle on Shamiana, Au Renoir or Roxy Lane. All Right Now with its superior C&D rating (100.5%) from 3 runs should be given respect.

RESULT: ALL RIGHT NOW 9-2

3:40 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl4 1m
102.7%Mondlicht 102.7%(1)
101.4%*Karaka Jack 
100.0%Greyfriarschorista 100.7%(7)
99.8%Askaud 99.9%(1)
99.3%Tatting 100.1%(5)
98.8%Warfare 99.5%(2)
98.5%Toymaker 98.5%(1)
98.0%Tartan Trip 
Showboating 

In the 3:40 as favourable as Mondlicht looks at first glance returning to the same C&D which it recorded the best LTO and C&D figure in the race, consideration should also be made for Karaka Jack who record a well above average time LTO and we are yet to get a handle on how well it may perform over this distance. Showboating should also be given further investigation for its first time on this surface with a Sire rating of 
If Mondlicht remains your poison of choice I would be very cautious on to skinny a price.

RESULT: MONDLICHT 1ST 11-10

No two races look the same but with a practised eye you can soon see patterns and desirable conditions emerging in races. Below we have The Actuary ratings for yesterdays Lingfield Park card. It is well worth looking retrospectively at where your money might have been placed.

Remember, we don't need to be right every time to make a profit and if you maintain level stakes you will find yourself winning in spades and losing only a trickle ;)

Hope this helps.
3rd March 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
1:45 Coral Mobile "Just Three Clicks To Bet" Handicap Cl6 1m2f
101.8%India´s Song 100.0%(1)
99.9%Travel 
99.8%Do More Business 98.0%(1)
99.6%*Cataria Girl 
99.5%Copperwood 99.4%(3)
98.8%Super Duplex 98.9%(1)
98.1%Indian Violet 98.4%(6)
98.0%Legal Legacy 97.9%(7)
97.2%Tide Runner 


2:15 32Red Mega Moolah Millionaires Claiming Stakes Cl6 1m
99.6%*Black Vale 100.9%(1)
98.3%No Refund 98.1%(2)
98.3%Autopilot 
97.7%Lucky Dottie 94.1%(1)
97.2%Prisca 
97.1%Penara 98.8%(1)
95.6%Diamond Back 95.6%(1)
94.5%Hannah Louise 96.0%(1)
2:50 Best Odds At bookmakers.co.uk Maiden Stakes Cl5 6f
99.3%*Role Reversal 99.3%(1)
98.1%Beylerbey 
97.4%Cocoa´s Princess 
95.9%O´Raghallaigh 
Bush Warrior 
Double Up 
Willy Brennan 
3:20 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl5 7f
101.5%Afkar 99.6%(3)
101.1%Seek The Fair Land 100.5%(15)
101.0%Fanoos 
100.8%Gracious George 
100.6%Hillbilly Boy 101.0%(1)
100.5%*Club House 98.4%(6)
100.2%Sulis Minerva 99.5%(2)
100.2%The Happy Hammer 100.1%(7)
3:55 bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Cl5 6f
100.2%*Parisian Pyramid 99.5%(6)
100.1%Volito 99.6%(6)
99.9%Temple Road 99.6%(7)
99.8%The Dancing Lord 98.9%(6)
99.3%Where´s Reiley 99.4%(3)
99.1%R Woody 93.2%(1)
98.8%Burnhope 98.5%(1)
4:25 coral.co.uk Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m2f
99.2%Dance Of Heroes 
99.1%*After The Storm 
97.5%Son Of Feyan 
97.5%Roskilly 
97.4%Moontown 
97.2%Song And Dance Man 
96.9%Dark Tsarina 97.3%(2)
4:55 32Red.com Handicap Cl5 1m2f
102.0%Izbushka 98.6%(2)
101.5%*Tizlove Regardless 
99.5%Zamra 
97.6%Turnbury 97.6%(1)
97.3%Samtu 98.4%(2)
Arianrhod 
  

Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Using The Actuary Speed Handicap Ratings

The complexities of Horse Racing provide numerous variables, each having varying degrees of importance. Although more data could be offered to assist in findings winners, we could very easily end up unable to see the wood for the trees. There is no doubt that the make-up of each race offers different conundrums, but what is offered daily through this blog I believe to be sufficient information to lead readers in the right direction regarding finding your own selections.

Examples from today's post:
5:10 Best Odds At bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Cl6 6f
100.2%*Solarmaite 100.3%(2)
99.6%Masked Dance 99.4%(7)
99.5%Caramelita 99.4%(8)
99.2%Dancing Freddy 99.3%(7)
99.2%Masai Moon 100.5%(3)
98.8%Izzy Boy 98.2%(1)
98.7%Sewn Up 99.3%(2)
98.6%Laughing Rock 98.7%(2)
97.9%Avonmore Star 97.9%(1)
In column (1) we have each horses last time out rating and in this race only Solarmaite ran above standard (100%) for the course and distance it last competed over. Solarmaite has run twice over C&D, indicated in brackets (2) and has averaged 100.3% so should be viewed as a lively contender. As we look further down the list only Masai Moon looks to be better favoured over this C&D with an average of 100.5% from (3) runs. It is important not to ignore the number of runs over C&D. A high average after several runs is obviously far more attractive in terms of consistency than 1 run which should be viewed with caution and further investigation regarding how the horse performed.

The * denotes the fastest horse prior to any adjustments and does not signify a selection as is commonly supposed. The final column  is primarily to assist where a horse has not previously figured on an All Weather surface and indicates the breeding merits over the trip and in this class.

RESULT: MASAI MOON 1ST 6-1

4:10 Download The Ladbrokes App Handicap Cl6 7f
101.0%*Mucky Molly 98.7%(9)
100.9%Very First Blade 98.7%(1)
99.9%Elusive Warrior 99.1%(43)
99.7%*De Lesseps 99.4%(2)
97.8%Shamiana 
97.8%All Right Now 100.5%(3)
97.7%Fast On 98.1%(1)
97.1%Chez Vrony 99.0%(3)
97.0%Mobley Chaos 97.7%(1)
94.1%Au Renoir 
Roxy Lane 
In the example above, although Mucky Molly and Very First Blade have put in the best LTO performances, their respective C&D ratings would suggest, in the case of Mucky Molly with an average of 98.7% from 9 runs that today is not the day. I would exercise a little more caution in the case of Very First Blade who has had only the one appearance over this C&D. We have no handle on Shamiana, Au Renoir or Roxy Lane. All Right Now with its superior C&D rating (100.5%) from 3 runs should be given respect.

RESULT: ALL RIGHT NOW 9-2

3:40 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl4 1m
102.7%Mondlicht 102.7%(1)
101.4%*Karaka Jack 
100.0%Greyfriarschorista 100.7%(7)
99.8%Askaud 99.9%(1)
99.3%Tatting 100.1%(5)
98.8%Warfare 99.5%(2)
98.5%Toymaker 98.5%(1)
98.0%Tartan Trip 
Showboating 

In the 3:40 as favourable as Mondlicht looks at first glance returning to the same C&D which it recorded the best LTO and C&D figure in the race, consideration should also be made for Karaka Jack who record a well above average time LTO and we are yet to get a handle on how well it may perform over this distance. Showboating should also be given further investigation for its first time on this surface with a Sire rating of 
If Mondlicht remains your poison of choice I would be very cautious on to skinny a price.

RESULT: MONDLICHT 1ST 11-10

No two races look the same but with a practised eye you can soon see patterns and desirable conditions emerging in races. Below we have The Actuary ratings for yesterdays Lingfield Park card. It is well worth looking retrospectively at where your money might have been placed.

Remember, we don't need to be right every time to make a profit and if you maintain level stakes you will find yourself winning in spades and losing only a trickle ;)

Hope this helps.
3rd March 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
1:45 Coral Mobile "Just Three Clicks To Bet" Handicap Cl6 1m2f
101.8%India´s Song 100.0%(1)
99.9%Travel 
99.8%Do More Business 98.0%(1)
99.6%*Cataria Girl 
99.5%Copperwood 99.4%(3)
98.8%Super Duplex 98.9%(1)
98.1%Indian Violet 98.4%(6)
98.0%Legal Legacy 97.9%(7)
97.2%Tide Runner 


2:15 32Red Mega Moolah Millionaires Claiming Stakes Cl6 1m
99.6%*Black Vale 100.9%(1)
98.3%No Refund 98.1%(2)
98.3%Autopilot 
97.7%Lucky Dottie 94.1%(1)
97.2%Prisca 
97.1%Penara 98.8%(1)
95.6%Diamond Back 95.6%(1)
94.5%Hannah Louise 96.0%(1)
2:50 Best Odds At bookmakers.co.uk Maiden Stakes Cl5 6f
99.3%*Role Reversal 99.3%(1)
98.1%Beylerbey 
97.4%Cocoa´s Princess 
95.9%O´Raghallaigh 
Bush Warrior 
Double Up 
Willy Brennan 
3:20 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl5 7f
101.5%Afkar 99.6%(3)
101.1%Seek The Fair Land 100.5%(15)
101.0%Fanoos 
100.8%Gracious George 
100.6%Hillbilly Boy 101.0%(1)
100.5%*Club House 98.4%(6)
100.2%Sulis Minerva 99.5%(2)
100.2%The Happy Hammer 100.1%(7)
3:55 bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Cl5 6f
100.2%*Parisian Pyramid 99.5%(6)
100.1%Volito 99.6%(6)
99.9%Temple Road 99.6%(7)
99.8%The Dancing Lord 98.9%(6)
99.3%Where´s Reiley 99.4%(3)
99.1%R Woody 93.2%(1)
98.8%Burnhope 98.5%(1)
4:25 coral.co.uk Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m2f
99.2%Dance Of Heroes 
99.1%*After The Storm 
97.5%Son Of Feyan 
97.5%Roskilly 
97.4%Moontown 
97.2%Song And Dance Man 
96.9%Dark Tsarina 97.3%(2)
4:55 32Red.com Handicap Cl5 1m2f
102.0%Izbushka 98.6%(2)
101.5%*Tizlove Regardless 
99.5%Zamra 
97.6%Turnbury 97.6%(1)
97.3%Samtu 98.4%(2)
Arianrhod