THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 26th March KEMPTON PARK- 27th March WOLVERHAMPTON- 29th March WOLVERHAMPTON - 30th March LINGFIELD PARK, KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 31st March WOLVERHAMPTON & CHELMSFORD CITY - 1ST aPRIL LINGFIELD PARK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 2nd April KEMPTON PARK -

Dundalk All Weather Speed Ratings - Friday 31st January 2014

31st January 2014 Dundalk

The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:45 Dundalk Stadium Racecourse Of The Year Handicap 5f
100.6% * Grey Danube  98.1% (4)
99.3% * Queen Grace  98.5% (7)
99.3% Above The Law  97.3% (3)
98.8% Under Review  97.9% (3)
98.5% Antiquus  98.6% (1)
97.6% Ability N Delivery  97.4% (7)
97.4% Knock Stars  98.6% (7)
96.2% Sylvan Mist  98.2% (2)
Ask Dad 

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Ratings - Friday 31st January 2014

31st January 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

4:50 Coral Mobile "Just Three Clicks To Bet" Apprentice Handicap Cl6 1m1f103y
101.9% Outlaw Torn  99.8% (6)
101.6% Dubai Celebration  101.1% (3)
101.0% Minstrel Lad  101.6% (2)
100.7% Camerooney  99.7% (1)
100.3% Mosman  100.6% (4)
100.3% No Win No Fee  99.3% (1)
99.3% * Kindlelight Storm 
98.7% Sixties Queen  99.0% (1)
97.7% Jumbo Prado 
95.6% Yourinthewill  99.8% (14)

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Ratings - Friday 31st January 2014

31st January 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

1:00 Ladbrokes Claiming Stakes Cl6 7f
101.4% * Mr David  99.5% (5)
100.8% Seek The Fair Land  100.4% (13)
100.3% Capaill Liath  99.7% (3)
99.7% Jubilee Brig  99.7% (1)
99.5% Bay Knight 
99.2% Kuanyao  100.1% (4)
98.1% Niger 
97.8% Prince Of Burma  99.3% (7)
96.2% The Mongoose  99.2% (8)

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Ratings - Thursday 30th January 2014

30th January 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

4:50 BetVictor NonRunner No Bet Cheltenham 2014 Apprentice Handicap Cl5 1m
102.0% Jewelled 
100.2% * Greensward  98.3% (2)
100.2% Gracious George  99.8% (1)
100.0% Queen Aggie 
99.9% Emman Bee  99.1% (4)
99.8% Just One Kiss 
99.2% Hierarch  99.8% (6)
98.7% Ancient Greece  100.6% (1)
98.6% Shaunas Spirit  99.1% (11)
Collodi 
Vanvitelli 

Southwell All Weather Speed Ratings - Thursday 30th January 2014

30th January 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

1:30 Best Odds At bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Cl6 5f
100.5% * Ysper  100.5% (1)
99.8% Dancing Freddy  100.0% (12)
99.8% Sir Geoffrey  98.2% (9)
99.7% Guishan 
99.0% Cadeaux Pearl  99.5% (7)
98.7% Imjin River  99.7% (3)
98.2% Fairy Wing  97.6% (2)
97.1% Flirtinaskirt  98.6% (2)
Iffranesia 
Catflap 

The Actuary All Weather Horse Racing Tips - Week 4 Report

A week of consolidation as we moved our profit on to +£2,231.18 to £10 stakes. Week 4 definitely proved to be an interesting week where a few expected but unwelcome scenarios played out in the early days putting the strategy of Betfair ‘place’ bets on the exchanges to the test. We also experienced the first week where Betfair outperformed BOG Bookmakers. As this was also the first complete week of ordering on Betfair at 15% above Bookmakers opening shows it might be a sign of things to come. 


BOOKMAKERS: A poor return with the Bookmakers due to the string of horses that could only manage a place in the opening three days. In comparison the final four days provided us with just short of +£200 allowing us to put our nose in front on the line courtesy of Putin 12-1 and Cosquillos 11-1.



BETFAIR WIN: A pleasant surprise in that this week we made some inroads into what was an increasing gap over the first three weeks between Bookmakers returns and Betfair returns. No surprise that is was due to orders matched on winning outsiders with some of this ground being made up with the win of Putin and most notably Cosquillos who was available at 17.00 at the time of the opening Bookmakers show of 11-1.


BETFAIR PLACE: I have no intention to act on such a small snapshot but other than the highlight of Prince Of Passion being placed and returning a reasonable profit, all too frequently we are failing to return all of our lost win stake with 'place' bets. I would have been hopeful that during the opening three days we would have seen a return sufficient enough to at least half win loses where it has only compounded loses over the three days. Although we have seen a £292.32 profit on place bets over the 4 weeks I intend to monitor the in-play markets over the coming weeks to see if there is sufficient movement and liquidity to consider this as an alternative option.

WEEK 4 SUMMARY (£10 STAKES):
BOOKMAKERS   +£16.02
BETFAIR WIN:     +£61.18
BETFAIR PLACE: -£2.28
TOTAL:                          +£74.92

2014 SUMMARY (£10 STAKES):
BOOKMAKERS:  +£1034.75
BETFAIR WIN:     +£904.12
BETFAIR PLACE: +£292.32

TOTAL:                   +£2,231.18

Time to batten down the hatches with no fewer than 7 meetings over the next three days to finish the month :)

http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-actuary-all-weather-horse-racing.html

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Ratings - Wednesday 29th January 2014

29th January 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

4:50 kempton.co.uk Handicap Cl7 1m2f
100.2% Catching Zeds 
100.1% * Snowy Valley  98.2% (1)
99.8% Kyle Of Bute  99.3% (2)
99.7% Waving 
99.7% Bapak Pesta 
99.5% Novel Dancer  98.4% (1)
99.0% Guardi 
98.9% Kindia  99.6% (2)
98.8% Total Obsession 
98.2% Beauchamp Sunset 
97.8% Finlodex  99.8% (1)
97.7% Vergality Ridge 
96.7% Addikt  100.7% (3)
96.4% Tammis 

Bookies get bloody nose while Stand Guard romps home,

What was likely to be the story from yesterday’s racing was the eagerly awaited race where 24 times All Weather winner La Estrella was pitted against 23 times All Weather winner Stand Guard. When you consider that the lack of quality is given so much emphasis in the world of horse racing, it seemed rather curious that the focus of attention was on the All Weather at Southwell in a Class 6 Seller. I was very mistaken in thinking I was alone in relishing the prospect since the declarations were made.

Not that I have a favourite but I had pinned my colours firmly to the mast of Stand Guard due to the race conditions and had availed myself of enough 11-10 to feel reasonably satisfied. Then came the Don Cantillon bombshell first through Simon Mapletoft of ATR and then live on camera. La Estrella had rolled over banging its head causing bleeding from the nose. By order of the BHA vet La Estrella was withdrawn from the race!

In all the anticipation it hadn’t escape my mind that one of the two would cry-off and after the bullish pre-race interviews from both trainers I was not overly surprised with events. It would appear that the BHA are equally sceptical. Here is the report from the BHA website:
The Stewards held an Enquiry into the circumstances leading to the late withdrawal of LA ESTRELLA (USA) by the gelding’s trainer, Don Cantillon, under a Veterinary Certificate issued by the BHA Veterinary Officer. They interviewed the Veterinary Officer, the Senior Veterinary Surgeon and an Equine Welfare and Integrity Officer. Having heard their evidence, the Stewards ordered a report to be forwarded to the British Horseracing Authority.
I am sure there was many a punter hoping that Stand Guard may be turned over by the one remaining runner of the original five, Bix but 7lb claimer Jordan Hibberd did little to help that cause ridding tight up against the rail and it took little effort for Stand Guard to canter by. If there was an upside, it was being paid out at around 1-2 after a Rule 4 on a horse returning at 1-66.

Have a great day with Kempton this evening and watch out for non-runners 

http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2014/01/what-was-likely-to-be-story-from.html

Southwell All Weather Speed Figures - Tuesday 28th January 2014

28th January 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

1:20 32Red.com Amateur Riders´ Handicap Cl5 1m6f
101.3% * Mediterranean Sea  99.4% (8)
99.7% Brunello  98.6% (2)
99.6% Royal Trooper 
98.6% Adili 
98.3% Honest Strike 
97.5% Diamond Pro  97.5% (1)
96.0% Luctor Emergo 
Luckster 

Backing two horses in a race and getting the ultimate result!

There is always that race where you find it impossible to separate two horses. When the prices are big enough the sensible solution is simply take them both and accept, as they both can’t win, you will be dropping a point on your return. Over the past couple of weeks having two selections in a race has been a common occurrence for subscribers to The Actuary All Weather Horse Racing Tips and I know from past experience that any attempt in settling for one or the other can be fool hardy and the odds are that you will only get it right 50% of the time.


As my four selection methods are mechanical, what tends to happen is that one method throws up one horse while another method throws up another. This was the case yesterday in Wolverhampton’s 3:40. One horse I took at 11-1 and between 16 – 14.5 on the exchanges (Cosquillos). The other 6-1 Bookmakers and 8’s on the exchanges (Warbrook).



Most of my work is carried out the day before so I seldom have to suffer the slings and arrows delivered by the racing pundits to stain my view, but it was poignant yesterday that pre-race ATR’s Simon Mapletoft is telling me that one of my two selections can’t win. ‘Warbrook racing of a mark of 66 and is in the sales next month’ dampened my thoughts of its chances.

To have the pair duelling, fighting out a head bobbing finish was more than any punter could ask for. To then have the good fortune where the bigger priced of the two prevails was even more satisfying. Hats off to Simon Mapletoft, Warbrook didn’t win, it was beaten a head by our other selection Cosquillos. Should I mind that my 11-1 became 10-1 and my 16 on the exchanges was worth only 15? I think not.

Now to sort out Stand Guard and La Estrella ;)

Have a great day Folks and may the best horse win

http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2014/01/backing-two-horses-in-race-and-getting.html

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Monday 27th January 2013

27th January 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

2:40 Compare Bookmakers At bookmakers.co.uk Amateur Riders´ Handicap Cl6 5f216y
99.8% Consistant  99.2% (12)
99.0% Masked Dance 
98.9% Volito  98.7% (3)
98.9% Methaaly  99.7% (39)
98.7% * Homeboy  99.0% (2)
98.7% Saktoon 
98.3% Red Star Lady  98.1% (3)
98.2% Amis Reunis  99.0% (4)
98.0% Busy Bimbo  97.3% (3)
97.7% Rose Garnet  100.9% (1)
97.0% Kneesy Earsy Nosey 
95.7% Lutine Charlie 
True That 

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Sunday 26th January 2013

26th January 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

1:50 bookmakers.co.uk Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 5f20y
98.1% Cheeky Peta´S  96.8% (3)
98.0% Busy Bimbo  97.2% (8)
97.9% * Misty Sparkler 
97.8% The Doyle Machine 
97.5% Avondream 
97.3% Mahon Falls  97.3% (1)
96.0% Chuckamental  96.2% (1)
Oriental Maid 

Sometimes you unwittingly become involved in a major gamble!

There was no surprise in the big price available on The Actuary All Weather Tips selection Putin yesterday with 12-1 available overnight. Having taken the 12-1 with a BOG Bookmaker, placed an order on Betfairs win market at 14.80 and an order on the Betfair place market at 4.7 I was wondering whether I may have under cooked things when at 8:50 my Betfair orders had been filled and Bet Victor went to 14-1.

At 10 minutes before the off there had been no significant market moves and the price of Putin looked to be holding up at around 10-1. The jockeys would be in the weighing room, the horses being saddled ready to be paraded.


And then something happened, within 10 minutes the price on our selection collapses. 12-1, 10-1, 8-1, 7-1, 6-1, 5-1. Having witnessed what were dubbed the Barney Curly connected horses being gambled earlier in the week, where the prices were slowly eroded over the evening in to the following morning, this seemed unprecedented. Whether it’s a nod or a wink in the right direction we will never know but we are sitting pretty, having unknowingly backed a horse that was part of a major gamble. All we can do is watch as the mischief unfolds and the price more than halves in the space of 10 minutes. 



Putin breaks first from the stalls in its usual manner and makes all in a pillar to post victory. Having last won back in June 2013 here at Lingfield Park over 5 furlongs. 

No matter how strong your convictions are on selections, there is another game being played out behind the scenes and sometimes, just sometimes you unwittingly become involved.

Have a good Sunday and enjoy the BHA's added All Weather fixture ;)

http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2014/01/there-was-no-surprise-in-big-price.html

Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Friday, January 31, 2014

Dundalk All Weather Speed Ratings - Friday 31st January 2014

31st January 2014 Dundalk

The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:45 Dundalk Stadium Racecourse Of The Year Handicap 5f
100.6% * Grey Danube  98.1% (4)
99.3% * Queen Grace  98.5% (7)
99.3% Above The Law  97.3% (3)
98.8% Under Review  97.9% (3)
98.5% Antiquus  98.6% (1)
97.6% Ability N Delivery  97.4% (7)
97.4% Knock Stars  98.6% (7)
96.2% Sylvan Mist  98.2% (2)
Ask Dad 

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Ratings - Friday 31st January 2014

31st January 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

4:50 Coral Mobile "Just Three Clicks To Bet" Apprentice Handicap Cl6 1m1f103y
101.9% Outlaw Torn  99.8% (6)
101.6% Dubai Celebration  101.1% (3)
101.0% Minstrel Lad  101.6% (2)
100.7% Camerooney  99.7% (1)
100.3% Mosman  100.6% (4)
100.3% No Win No Fee  99.3% (1)
99.3% * Kindlelight Storm 
98.7% Sixties Queen  99.0% (1)
97.7% Jumbo Prado 
95.6% Yourinthewill  99.8% (14)

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Ratings - Friday 31st January 2014

31st January 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

1:00 Ladbrokes Claiming Stakes Cl6 7f
101.4% * Mr David  99.5% (5)
100.8% Seek The Fair Land  100.4% (13)
100.3% Capaill Liath  99.7% (3)
99.7% Jubilee Brig  99.7% (1)
99.5% Bay Knight 
99.2% Kuanyao  100.1% (4)
98.1% Niger 
97.8% Prince Of Burma  99.3% (7)
96.2% The Mongoose  99.2% (8)

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Ratings - Thursday 30th January 2014

30th January 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

4:50 BetVictor NonRunner No Bet Cheltenham 2014 Apprentice Handicap Cl5 1m
102.0% Jewelled 
100.2% * Greensward  98.3% (2)
100.2% Gracious George  99.8% (1)
100.0% Queen Aggie 
99.9% Emman Bee  99.1% (4)
99.8% Just One Kiss 
99.2% Hierarch  99.8% (6)
98.7% Ancient Greece  100.6% (1)
98.6% Shaunas Spirit  99.1% (11)
Collodi 
Vanvitelli 

Southwell All Weather Speed Ratings - Thursday 30th January 2014

30th January 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

1:30 Best Odds At bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Cl6 5f
100.5% * Ysper  100.5% (1)
99.8% Dancing Freddy  100.0% (12)
99.8% Sir Geoffrey  98.2% (9)
99.7% Guishan 
99.0% Cadeaux Pearl  99.5% (7)
98.7% Imjin River  99.7% (3)
98.2% Fairy Wing  97.6% (2)
97.1% Flirtinaskirt  98.6% (2)
Iffranesia 
Catflap 

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

The Actuary All Weather Horse Racing Tips - Week 4 Report

A week of consolidation as we moved our profit on to +£2,231.18 to £10 stakes. Week 4 definitely proved to be an interesting week where a few expected but unwelcome scenarios played out in the early days putting the strategy of Betfair ‘place’ bets on the exchanges to the test. We also experienced the first week where Betfair outperformed BOG Bookmakers. As this was also the first complete week of ordering on Betfair at 15% above Bookmakers opening shows it might be a sign of things to come. 


BOOKMAKERS: A poor return with the Bookmakers due to the string of horses that could only manage a place in the opening three days. In comparison the final four days provided us with just short of +£200 allowing us to put our nose in front on the line courtesy of Putin 12-1 and Cosquillos 11-1.



BETFAIR WIN: A pleasant surprise in that this week we made some inroads into what was an increasing gap over the first three weeks between Bookmakers returns and Betfair returns. No surprise that is was due to orders matched on winning outsiders with some of this ground being made up with the win of Putin and most notably Cosquillos who was available at 17.00 at the time of the opening Bookmakers show of 11-1.


BETFAIR PLACE: I have no intention to act on such a small snapshot but other than the highlight of Prince Of Passion being placed and returning a reasonable profit, all too frequently we are failing to return all of our lost win stake with 'place' bets. I would have been hopeful that during the opening three days we would have seen a return sufficient enough to at least half win loses where it has only compounded loses over the three days. Although we have seen a £292.32 profit on place bets over the 4 weeks I intend to monitor the in-play markets over the coming weeks to see if there is sufficient movement and liquidity to consider this as an alternative option.

WEEK 4 SUMMARY (£10 STAKES):
BOOKMAKERS   +£16.02
BETFAIR WIN:     +£61.18
BETFAIR PLACE: -£2.28
TOTAL:                          +£74.92

2014 SUMMARY (£10 STAKES):
BOOKMAKERS:  +£1034.75
BETFAIR WIN:     +£904.12
BETFAIR PLACE: +£292.32

TOTAL:                   +£2,231.18

Time to batten down the hatches with no fewer than 7 meetings over the next three days to finish the month :)

http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-actuary-all-weather-horse-racing.html

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Ratings - Wednesday 29th January 2014

29th January 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

4:50 kempton.co.uk Handicap Cl7 1m2f
100.2% Catching Zeds 
100.1% * Snowy Valley  98.2% (1)
99.8% Kyle Of Bute  99.3% (2)
99.7% Waving 
99.7% Bapak Pesta 
99.5% Novel Dancer  98.4% (1)
99.0% Guardi 
98.9% Kindia  99.6% (2)
98.8% Total Obsession 
98.2% Beauchamp Sunset 
97.8% Finlodex  99.8% (1)
97.7% Vergality Ridge 
96.7% Addikt  100.7% (3)
96.4% Tammis 

Bookies get bloody nose while Stand Guard romps home,

What was likely to be the story from yesterday’s racing was the eagerly awaited race where 24 times All Weather winner La Estrella was pitted against 23 times All Weather winner Stand Guard. When you consider that the lack of quality is given so much emphasis in the world of horse racing, it seemed rather curious that the focus of attention was on the All Weather at Southwell in a Class 6 Seller. I was very mistaken in thinking I was alone in relishing the prospect since the declarations were made.

Not that I have a favourite but I had pinned my colours firmly to the mast of Stand Guard due to the race conditions and had availed myself of enough 11-10 to feel reasonably satisfied. Then came the Don Cantillon bombshell first through Simon Mapletoft of ATR and then live on camera. La Estrella had rolled over banging its head causing bleeding from the nose. By order of the BHA vet La Estrella was withdrawn from the race!

In all the anticipation it hadn’t escape my mind that one of the two would cry-off and after the bullish pre-race interviews from both trainers I was not overly surprised with events. It would appear that the BHA are equally sceptical. Here is the report from the BHA website:
The Stewards held an Enquiry into the circumstances leading to the late withdrawal of LA ESTRELLA (USA) by the gelding’s trainer, Don Cantillon, under a Veterinary Certificate issued by the BHA Veterinary Officer. They interviewed the Veterinary Officer, the Senior Veterinary Surgeon and an Equine Welfare and Integrity Officer. Having heard their evidence, the Stewards ordered a report to be forwarded to the British Horseracing Authority.
I am sure there was many a punter hoping that Stand Guard may be turned over by the one remaining runner of the original five, Bix but 7lb claimer Jordan Hibberd did little to help that cause ridding tight up against the rail and it took little effort for Stand Guard to canter by. If there was an upside, it was being paid out at around 1-2 after a Rule 4 on a horse returning at 1-66.

Have a great day with Kempton this evening and watch out for non-runners 

http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2014/01/what-was-likely-to-be-story-from.html

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Southwell All Weather Speed Figures - Tuesday 28th January 2014

28th January 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

1:20 32Red.com Amateur Riders´ Handicap Cl5 1m6f
101.3% * Mediterranean Sea  99.4% (8)
99.7% Brunello  98.6% (2)
99.6% Royal Trooper 
98.6% Adili 
98.3% Honest Strike 
97.5% Diamond Pro  97.5% (1)
96.0% Luctor Emergo 
Luckster 

Backing two horses in a race and getting the ultimate result!

There is always that race where you find it impossible to separate two horses. When the prices are big enough the sensible solution is simply take them both and accept, as they both can’t win, you will be dropping a point on your return. Over the past couple of weeks having two selections in a race has been a common occurrence for subscribers to The Actuary All Weather Horse Racing Tips and I know from past experience that any attempt in settling for one or the other can be fool hardy and the odds are that you will only get it right 50% of the time.


As my four selection methods are mechanical, what tends to happen is that one method throws up one horse while another method throws up another. This was the case yesterday in Wolverhampton’s 3:40. One horse I took at 11-1 and between 16 – 14.5 on the exchanges (Cosquillos). The other 6-1 Bookmakers and 8’s on the exchanges (Warbrook).



Most of my work is carried out the day before so I seldom have to suffer the slings and arrows delivered by the racing pundits to stain my view, but it was poignant yesterday that pre-race ATR’s Simon Mapletoft is telling me that one of my two selections can’t win. ‘Warbrook racing of a mark of 66 and is in the sales next month’ dampened my thoughts of its chances.

To have the pair duelling, fighting out a head bobbing finish was more than any punter could ask for. To then have the good fortune where the bigger priced of the two prevails was even more satisfying. Hats off to Simon Mapletoft, Warbrook didn’t win, it was beaten a head by our other selection Cosquillos. Should I mind that my 11-1 became 10-1 and my 16 on the exchanges was worth only 15? I think not.

Now to sort out Stand Guard and La Estrella ;)

Have a great day Folks and may the best horse win

http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2014/01/backing-two-horses-in-race-and-getting.html

Monday, January 27, 2014

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Monday 27th January 2013

27th January 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

2:40 Compare Bookmakers At bookmakers.co.uk Amateur Riders´ Handicap Cl6 5f216y
99.8% Consistant  99.2% (12)
99.0% Masked Dance 
98.9% Volito  98.7% (3)
98.9% Methaaly  99.7% (39)
98.7% * Homeboy  99.0% (2)
98.7% Saktoon 
98.3% Red Star Lady  98.1% (3)
98.2% Amis Reunis  99.0% (4)
98.0% Busy Bimbo  97.3% (3)
97.7% Rose Garnet  100.9% (1)
97.0% Kneesy Earsy Nosey 
95.7% Lutine Charlie 
True That 

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Sunday 26th January 2013

26th January 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

1:50 bookmakers.co.uk Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 5f20y
98.1% Cheeky Peta´S  96.8% (3)
98.0% Busy Bimbo  97.2% (8)
97.9% * Misty Sparkler 
97.8% The Doyle Machine 
97.5% Avondream 
97.3% Mahon Falls  97.3% (1)
96.0% Chuckamental  96.2% (1)
Oriental Maid 

Sometimes you unwittingly become involved in a major gamble!

There was no surprise in the big price available on The Actuary All Weather Tips selection Putin yesterday with 12-1 available overnight. Having taken the 12-1 with a BOG Bookmaker, placed an order on Betfairs win market at 14.80 and an order on the Betfair place market at 4.7 I was wondering whether I may have under cooked things when at 8:50 my Betfair orders had been filled and Bet Victor went to 14-1.

At 10 minutes before the off there had been no significant market moves and the price of Putin looked to be holding up at around 10-1. The jockeys would be in the weighing room, the horses being saddled ready to be paraded.


And then something happened, within 10 minutes the price on our selection collapses. 12-1, 10-1, 8-1, 7-1, 6-1, 5-1. Having witnessed what were dubbed the Barney Curly connected horses being gambled earlier in the week, where the prices were slowly eroded over the evening in to the following morning, this seemed unprecedented. Whether it’s a nod or a wink in the right direction we will never know but we are sitting pretty, having unknowingly backed a horse that was part of a major gamble. All we can do is watch as the mischief unfolds and the price more than halves in the space of 10 minutes. 



Putin breaks first from the stalls in its usual manner and makes all in a pillar to post victory. Having last won back in June 2013 here at Lingfield Park over 5 furlongs. 

No matter how strong your convictions are on selections, there is another game being played out behind the scenes and sometimes, just sometimes you unwittingly become involved.

Have a good Sunday and enjoy the BHA's added All Weather fixture ;)

http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2014/01/there-was-no-surprise-in-big-price.html