THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 15TH DECEMBER WOLVERHAMPTON - 16TH DECEMBER KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 17TH DECEMBER DUNDALK, KEMPTON PARK & LINGFIELD PARK - 18TH DECEMBER KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 19TH DECEMBER SOUTHWELL, DUNDALK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 20TH DECEMBER LINGFIELD PARK -

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 20th December 2014

20th December 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
12:25 32Red.com Claiming Stakes Cl6 6f1y
100.1% * Diminutive  62 97.2% (2)
99.9% Classic Seniority  71
98.5% Low Cut Affair  71 97.3% (1)
97.4% Little  66 97.4% (1)
97.2% Foylesideview  96.1% (1)
97.2% Misu Pete  92.3% (1)
96.7% Tinkers Kiss  59 96.7% (1)
95.5% Sparbrook  52
95.1% Wesie´s Dream  95.1% (1)

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 19th December 2014

19th December 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
6:10 www.dundalkstadium.com Nursery Handicap 1m
99.7% * Social Climber  59 99.7% (1)
99.3% Lily´s Rainbow  98.9% (2)
98.9% Moving On Up  98.9% (2)
98.7% Rest Assured 
98.6% Enter The Priory 
98.3% Dram Girl 
98.1% Jacobs Well  98.9% (1)
97.5% Torthai An Ghra 
96.7% Tomorrow Morning  68 98.3% (2)
96.1% Easy Boy 
95.4% Echoes Of My Mind  96.1% (2)
Primo Dynamo 

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 19th December 2014

19th December 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
3:50 32Red Casino Maiden Auction Stakes Cl6 7f32y
98.8% * Charlton Heights 
97.1% Come Uppence 
96.3% Icandi 
95.1% Spirit Of Rosanna  95.1% (1)
Virtual Reality 
Wisteria 

Southwell All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 19th December 2014

19th December 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
12:00 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl6 1m
101.3% Two Shades Of Grey  60 101.3% (1)
100.9% * Blackthorn Stick 
100.2% Novalist 
98.9% Company Secretary  59 98.9% (1)
97.7% Falcon´s Reign  99.1% (2)
96.4% It´s All A Game  51 98.0% (4)
96.3% General Tufto  71 99.4% (50)
84.8% Delightful Sleep  54 99.3% (1)
Sooqaan 

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 18th December 2014

18th December 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 








4:15 BetVictor Svengali Claiming Stakes Cl6 1m
101.3% Geordan Murphy  79 99.4% (3)
101.2% * Lindart  98.8% (1)
100.7% Ghosting  71 99.9% (2)
99.5% Bush Beauty 
96.7% Dalaki  99.2% (1)

Southwell All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 18th December 2014

18th December 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
1:00 32Red Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Stakes Cl5 7f
97.0% * Crusading 
Cool Beans 
Danseur Noble 
Fast Charlie 
Forest Missile 
Idle Talker 
Moving Upwards 
Exclusive Diamond 
What Could She Be 

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 17th December 2014

17th December 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
12:30 Coral App Download From The App Store Classified Selling Stakes Cl6 1m2f
100.6% * Refreshestheparts  67
100.5% Love Tangle 
99.3% Pearl Ransom  99.3% (1)
99.2% It´s Only Business  69 94.3% (1)
99.2% Incendo 
98.4% The Gay Cavalier  67 98.9% (2)
96.5% Al Guwair  99.0% (2)
96.0% Well Painted  83 100.9% (2)
95.8% King Olav  79 99.4% (2)
84.5% Classic Colori  76 101.1% (1)

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Tips - Wednesday 17th December 2014

17th December 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
4:05 Watch Racing UK On 3 Devices Selling Stakes Cl6 7f
99.3% * Dusty Blue 
98.8% Mecado  72 98.6% (3)
97.5% Aqlette 
97.3% Edw Gold 

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 16th December 2014

16th December 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
2:20 Follow @BetVictorRacing On Twitter Handicap Cl5 1m2f
101.1% * Oratorio´s Joy  74 99.9% (2)
100.6% Ze King  66 100.6% (1)
100.4% Time Square  55 99.8% (7)
100.1% Dream Ruler 
100.0% What A Dandy  62
100.0% Nelson Quay  65
99.3% Ana Shababiya  64
99.3% Young Dottie  65 100.2% (2)
99.3% Byrd In Hand  52 100.5% (1)
98.6% Bridge That Gap  57 98.8% (1)
98.4% The Gay Cavalier  67
97.8% Olivers Mount  49 96.1% (1)
94.1% Notebook 

Southwell All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 16th December 2014

16th December 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
12:25 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl6 7f
101.5% * Best Tamayuz  49 101.4% (1)
101.3% Burnhope  60 99.8% (2)
101.0% Arabian Flight  62 99.7% (10)
98.8% Gaelic Wizard  57 99.9% (1)
98.6% Milly´s Secret 
97.2% Wotalad  51 98.4% (2)
97.0% Clapperboard  97.0% (1)
Howz The Family 

When the going gets tough, the winner gets going!

Having had a deluge of e-mail’s resulting from my post ‘Taking things to the next level’, some offering advice, which I thank you for and please don’t be offended if I take a different direction. Others asking me to post my ‘sectional times’ on the blog, along with a whole host of other questions. I hope this post will answer most questions (even those I didn't fully understand) and lay out my intentions.

“The obvious criticism is that the statistician's belief is subjective, and may vary from statistician to statistician. Moreover, it affects the results. Frequentists maintain that their results are based solely on the data, and therefore frequentist inference is more objective than Bayesian inference.”

Firstly my intention is not to record a sectional time for each individual horse at each furlong pole. As admirable as I find the work of those that carry out such a task, it would be meaningless to fulfil my objectives. I also believe this level of data in Horse Racing on our shores where horses are intentionally held up behind a front runner and in most cases look to do no more than follow the pace, whatever that pace may be, for the vast majority of the trip to be largely irrelevant (sorry if I offend anyone).

My intention is record the time of the last 2 furlongs and deduct that from the overall winning race time. This will result in two sets of figures: One giving me the earlier pace: One giving the finish speed. For horses beaten, time is added in accordance to the BHA LPS

At the present time there would be no mileage in publishing the figures on the blog. Until I arrive at standards for trip and track (which will be when I have enough data for the figures to remain static as each meeting is added) so we are able to correlate data between tracks using past races from 2008 to the present (with the exception of Wolverhampton'S NEW Tapeta surface).

As straight forward as the task may seem on face value, having spent the time outside of recording times for the last 2 furlong of races, reading on ‘Prior Probabilities’ and Pierre-Simon Laplace (Father of the Field of Probability) thought process expended to another consideration!

If we except (as I do) that there is a going allowance to be factored in to times on artificial surfaces, is it possible that the allowance should be applied ONLY to the finishing furlongs of a race given that most horses react negatively or favourably to the conditions only once pressure is applied?

As you can appreciate this will be a very time consuming undertaking so you will understand the infrequency of posts over the coming weeks beyond posting the daily figs. BUT if anyone has thoughts on the question posed above I look forward hearing from you ;)


Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Hello The Actuary

I must admit it's the first time I've seen this thread & personally I don't get involved too much in all-weather racing but I must commend you on the tremendous effort you put in & clearly you have a great knowledge & understanding of all-weather racing. I am certain that loads off gg.com members are finding this to be incredibly useful & benefitting from your work and this again illustrates the strengths & qualities of gg.com - all members prepared & willing to put time & effort in with the aim of helping fellow members achieve betting success & improve their knowledge. You have clearly had some very good results with your work & I commend you for that as I am sure all my fellow gg.com members do. You commented on

"it being a very disappointing last week. if it teaches me anything it will be to take nothing for granted" -

Now you said you made a profit in October so there is no need to worry or feel disappointment at a poor last week because that is the way when you study in depth because you can spend hours working on something only for it to all go wrong in a couple of minutes in a football match or matter of seconds in a horse race - I spend hours studying my football selections each week & yet in recent weeks it has been very frustrating with some poor results but that is not down to me doing things wrong but more to do with the random nature of football dictating that ultimately anything can & will happen. Horse races & football matches are random events that however much we assess & how much detailed analysis we do, the ultimate event is completely out of our control & as you quite rightly said you can take nothing for granted - horses that look certain to win easy run poorly, teams that look certain to win 3 or 4-0 lose 1-0 - that is the nature of sport & that is the nature of betting.As I said, I think the work you are doing is very informative & useful to gg.com members, so on behalf of my fellow members, here is a gg.com salute for you to show our appreciation.

THE ACTUARY - WE SALUTE YOU!!!

All the best with your all-weather bets & if I am considering having a bet on the all-weather I will definitely look for your work first to help me make my mind up.

Tommy
Horse Racing - Trip Down Memory Lane

As there is no AWT racing until Monday 13th I decided to do some research and while thumbing through some old racing books found an old page from Raceform which bought back a great memory from my past carefully folded within the pages.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 20th December 2014

20th December 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
12:25 32Red.com Claiming Stakes Cl6 6f1y
100.1% * Diminutive  62 97.2% (2)
99.9% Classic Seniority  71
98.5% Low Cut Affair  71 97.3% (1)
97.4% Little  66 97.4% (1)
97.2% Foylesideview  96.1% (1)
97.2% Misu Pete  92.3% (1)
96.7% Tinkers Kiss  59 96.7% (1)
95.5% Sparbrook  52
95.1% Wesie´s Dream  95.1% (1)

Friday, December 19, 2014

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 19th December 2014

19th December 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
6:10 www.dundalkstadium.com Nursery Handicap 1m
99.7% * Social Climber  59 99.7% (1)
99.3% Lily´s Rainbow  98.9% (2)
98.9% Moving On Up  98.9% (2)
98.7% Rest Assured 
98.6% Enter The Priory 
98.3% Dram Girl 
98.1% Jacobs Well  98.9% (1)
97.5% Torthai An Ghra 
96.7% Tomorrow Morning  68 98.3% (2)
96.1% Easy Boy 
95.4% Echoes Of My Mind  96.1% (2)
Primo Dynamo 

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 19th December 2014

19th December 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
3:50 32Red Casino Maiden Auction Stakes Cl6 7f32y
98.8% * Charlton Heights 
97.1% Come Uppence 
96.3% Icandi 
95.1% Spirit Of Rosanna  95.1% (1)
Virtual Reality 
Wisteria 

Southwell All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 19th December 2014

19th December 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
12:00 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl6 1m
101.3% Two Shades Of Grey  60 101.3% (1)
100.9% * Blackthorn Stick 
100.2% Novalist 
98.9% Company Secretary  59 98.9% (1)
97.7% Falcon´s Reign  99.1% (2)
96.4% It´s All A Game  51 98.0% (4)
96.3% General Tufto  71 99.4% (50)
84.8% Delightful Sleep  54 99.3% (1)
Sooqaan 

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 18th December 2014

18th December 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 








4:15 BetVictor Svengali Claiming Stakes Cl6 1m
101.3% Geordan Murphy  79 99.4% (3)
101.2% * Lindart  98.8% (1)
100.7% Ghosting  71 99.9% (2)
99.5% Bush Beauty 
96.7% Dalaki  99.2% (1)

Southwell All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 18th December 2014

18th December 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
1:00 32Red Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Stakes Cl5 7f
97.0% * Crusading 
Cool Beans 
Danseur Noble 
Fast Charlie 
Forest Missile 
Idle Talker 
Moving Upwards 
Exclusive Diamond 
What Could She Be 

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 17th December 2014

17th December 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
12:30 Coral App Download From The App Store Classified Selling Stakes Cl6 1m2f
100.6% * Refreshestheparts  67
100.5% Love Tangle 
99.3% Pearl Ransom  99.3% (1)
99.2% It´s Only Business  69 94.3% (1)
99.2% Incendo 
98.4% The Gay Cavalier  67 98.9% (2)
96.5% Al Guwair  99.0% (2)
96.0% Well Painted  83 100.9% (2)
95.8% King Olav  79 99.4% (2)
84.5% Classic Colori  76 101.1% (1)

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Tips - Wednesday 17th December 2014

17th December 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
4:05 Watch Racing UK On 3 Devices Selling Stakes Cl6 7f
99.3% * Dusty Blue 
98.8% Mecado  72 98.6% (3)
97.5% Aqlette 
97.3% Edw Gold 

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 16th December 2014

16th December 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
2:20 Follow @BetVictorRacing On Twitter Handicap Cl5 1m2f
101.1% * Oratorio´s Joy  74 99.9% (2)
100.6% Ze King  66 100.6% (1)
100.4% Time Square  55 99.8% (7)
100.1% Dream Ruler 
100.0% What A Dandy  62
100.0% Nelson Quay  65
99.3% Ana Shababiya  64
99.3% Young Dottie  65 100.2% (2)
99.3% Byrd In Hand  52 100.5% (1)
98.6% Bridge That Gap  57 98.8% (1)
98.4% The Gay Cavalier  67
97.8% Olivers Mount  49 96.1% (1)
94.1% Notebook 

Southwell All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 16th December 2014

16th December 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. 
12:25 Ladbrokes Handicap Cl6 7f
101.5% * Best Tamayuz  49 101.4% (1)
101.3% Burnhope  60 99.8% (2)
101.0% Arabian Flight  62 99.7% (10)
98.8% Gaelic Wizard  57 99.9% (1)
98.6% Milly´s Secret 
97.2% Wotalad  51 98.4% (2)
97.0% Clapperboard  97.0% (1)
Howz The Family 

When the going gets tough, the winner gets going!

Having had a deluge of e-mail’s resulting from my post ‘Taking things to the next level’, some offering advice, which I thank you for and please don’t be offended if I take a different direction. Others asking me to post my ‘sectional times’ on the blog, along with a whole host of other questions. I hope this post will answer most questions (even those I didn't fully understand) and lay out my intentions.

“The obvious criticism is that the statistician's belief is subjective, and may vary from statistician to statistician. Moreover, it affects the results. Frequentists maintain that their results are based solely on the data, and therefore frequentist inference is more objective than Bayesian inference.”

Firstly my intention is not to record a sectional time for each individual horse at each furlong pole. As admirable as I find the work of those that carry out such a task, it would be meaningless to fulfil my objectives. I also believe this level of data in Horse Racing on our shores where horses are intentionally held up behind a front runner and in most cases look to do no more than follow the pace, whatever that pace may be, for the vast majority of the trip to be largely irrelevant (sorry if I offend anyone).

My intention is record the time of the last 2 furlongs and deduct that from the overall winning race time. This will result in two sets of figures: One giving me the earlier pace: One giving the finish speed. For horses beaten, time is added in accordance to the BHA LPS

At the present time there would be no mileage in publishing the figures on the blog. Until I arrive at standards for trip and track (which will be when I have enough data for the figures to remain static as each meeting is added) so we are able to correlate data between tracks using past races from 2008 to the present (with the exception of Wolverhampton'S NEW Tapeta surface).

As straight forward as the task may seem on face value, having spent the time outside of recording times for the last 2 furlong of races, reading on ‘Prior Probabilities’ and Pierre-Simon Laplace (Father of the Field of Probability) thought process expended to another consideration!

If we except (as I do) that there is a going allowance to be factored in to times on artificial surfaces, is it possible that the allowance should be applied ONLY to the finishing furlongs of a race given that most horses react negatively or favourably to the conditions only once pressure is applied?

As you can appreciate this will be a very time consuming undertaking so you will understand the infrequency of posts over the coming weeks beyond posting the daily figs. BUT if anyone has thoughts on the question posed above I look forward hearing from you ;)


How attractive a proposition was Pipssalio. Still a Maiden after 4 outings, its 3 outings as a 2yo read beaten 16 lengths in Class 5 3k Novice, beaten 16 lengths in a Class 6 2k Maiden, Beaten 14 lengths in a Class 4 3k Maiden. 1 outing as a 3yo beaten ½ length in a Class 4 4k Handicap. Looked to be way out of its depth being entered in a Class 3 14k Handicap. Pipssalio was 10lb out of the handicap and the jockey (Francis Norton) was putting up 2lb over weight.

My speed figures told me a different story. In fact I can remember being so bullish I was nailing my colours to the mast on all the forums and to the Raceform. This for me was the outstanding bet of the following day, the outstanding bet of the week and of the month. I went to bed unable to sleep with anticipation for the following day fully confident I would be making a lot of money. As soon as I got up on the day of the race I started checking the prices to ensure the tissue given the evening before was correct. Pipssalio was still 20-1.

The time of the race had arrived and in horror I watched as Pipssalio fell out of the stalls. By the time they had reached half-way in the 1 mile contest it was flat to the boards well adrift of the rest of the field with Franny Norton rowing away and beating the horse to death!

My feelings at the time were partly embarrassment due to the comments I had made on various forums , partly anger and all confidence in my ability to create meaningful speed figures gone in 60 seconds but being the eternal optimist still a slither of hope.

With 2 furlongs to go Pipssalio started to reduce the gap. With a furlong to go the rest of the field started to paddle and Pipssalio appeared to have sprouted wings and was closing on the leaders at an unbelievable rate. As they flashed passed the post Franny Norton had driven Pipssalio between the two leaders to make a three way photo finish. Even though I believed Pipssalio had got there it was going to be on the nod. Pipssalio got the verdict beating 2nd Everest by a short-head who in turn had beaten 3rd Tumbleweed Tor by a short-head.

That is the margin between winning or losing. The difference between the feeling of abject failure and believing you can walk on water.