THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 22ND OCTOBER KEMPTON PARK - 23RD OCTOBER KEMPTON PARK - 24TH OCTOBER WOLVERHAMPTON & DUNDALK - 25TH OCTOBER WOLVERHAMPTON - 28TH OCTOBER WOLVERHAMPTON - 29TH OCTOBER KEMPTON PARK - 3OTH OCTOBER LINGFIELD PARK & KEMPTON PARK - 31ST OCTOBER WOLVERHAMPTON & DUNDALK -

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 22nd October 2014

22nd October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:55 Betbright.com Download Our App Handicap Cl6 1m2f
100.2% * Mercury Magic 
99.9% Silken Waters  53
99.9% Hidden Asset  50
99.8% Mr Lando  63 101.2% (3)
99.7% Teide Peak  58 99.5% (1)
98.0% Lexington Blue 
98.0% Claude Greenwood 
97.9% Warbond  99.2% (1)
97.8% Purple Spot 
97.7% Highly Likely  55 96.5% (1)
97.5% Kingswinford  68
97.1% Berrahri 
97.1% Osorios Trial 
96.7% Nouvelle Ere 

Two 20-1 winners in 10 minutes!

The first triple meeting AWT day of the season and subscribers should have come away with very large smiles on their faces. Although the number of selections was best described as ‘unprecedented’ and far removed from the norm, winners at SP’s of 22-1, 20-1 and 5-2 made for a very profitable afternoon.

It was a day where we traded strike rate for profit, and the afternoon results, I feel, vindicated this decision. Never the less, I am acutely aware of the discomfort that is commonly felt with such a sacrifices.

A very eventful start to proceedings saw the most emphatic of victories from Lyfka who made amends for our losses 10 days ago. On that occasion she had lost all momentum, trapped on the rail and was forced to swerve violently around horses to deliver her challenge but still finishing a creditable second under Luke Morris. This time there was no mistake under Martin Lane as the selection strolled to a 9 length victory.

Prior to Lyfka’s race, over at Lingfield Park we witnessed carnage in the 2:30 when Velocitor, who had the whole field on the stretch turning for home, almost ran off the track taking the 10-11 favourite Percues with it. Unlike the favourite, Velocitor picked up enough momentum to still finish in the frame and should be one for the notebook.

We then had our golden 10 minutes. Most would be grateful for one 20-1 winner in a week. To get a 20-1 winner a day would be magnificent. We were about to get two 20-1 winners in 10 minutes!

First up another horse that we are familiar with after also being a selection LTO. My reading of the situation was that Anna Hesketh was being given another chance to get it right on Methaaly after doing too much, too soon 4 days ago. This time she got it spot on. 11yo Methaaly was left bowling along at its own pace while being edged steadily to three wide from its wide draw. As the field turned in to the straight Methaaly had simply coasted in to the lead. Whether this is Anna’s usual languid style, I'm unsure but little effort was made to keep the selections head in front at the line, scoring by an uncomfortable head at SP 22-1 from the late finishing Mambo Spirit.

10 minutes later we were collecting again as 20-1 Royal Acquisition took the 4:00 at Lingfield Park. The manner of the ride by Adam Beschizza would suggest that there was more money than just ours riding on the result.  Royal Acquisition sat in mid division before coming under a Luke Morris type drive for the final 2 furlongs with Beschizza's arms and legs flailing all the way to the line for a comfortable 1 length victory.

Like a game of football, it was a game of two halves. After Wolverhampton and Lingfield Park provided the profit in the afternoon. We found ourselves in a position where the evening selections at Kempton Park were running for fun to boost the day’s profit.

In stark contrast Kempton Park offered little excitement with only two seconds recorded. After completing the day’s returns, what became apparent is that although only a hop, skip and jump apart, and I can only assume suffer (or enjoy) similar weather conditions, Lingfield Park returned times slightly faster than my standards, whereas Kempton Park returns were extremely slow.

The fact that we are back at Kempton Park this evening should act as a note of caution. If deep harrowing has taken place between the last meeting and yesterday, I would be expecting a rather steady return to the normal conditions. Tonight might see a degree of improvement, but by what degree we are yet to find out!  


Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 21st October 2014

21st October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:30 £25 Free Bet At titanbet.co.uk Maiden Fillies´ Stakes (Bobis Race) Cl5 6f
99.3% * Dusty Blue  99.3% (1)
96.3% Sharissima  96.3% (1)
Always Smile 
Bahama Blue 
Beta Tauri 
Equilicious 
Hey You 
Lucy The Painter 
Marilyn Mon 

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 21st October 2014

21st October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:20 British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Tapeta) Cl5 5f216y
100.0% * Bonfire Heart  99.2% (2)
98.2% Darma 
96.6% Longside 
Bapak Asmara 
Secret Glance 
Star Of The Stage 
Twinkle Twinkle 

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 21st October 2014

21st October 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:00 £20 Free Bet At winner.co.uk Maiden Auction Stakes Cl6 7f1y
99.4% * Eatsleepracerepeat 
98.1% Edge Of Heaven  98.4% (1)
96.3% Celtic Ava 
93.4% Artesana  93.4% (1)
Mistamel 
Compton Mill 
To The Victor 
Dynamite Inventor 
Space Sheriff 
Easy Tiger 

A 50-1 winner to start us off and all the 5's

When subscribers start the day with a 50-1 winner there is only one way to go, and that is down, and down came in the form of 2 points win Star Anise (opened 11-2) and Rock Of Leon (opened 3-1).

Although Aaronyow came into the Wolverhampton opener a 27 race Maiden, what was most appealing (other than the price) was that its LTO speed figure was recorded in company superior to this and was now racing in far lesser company, and as we are at bargain basement here, that is a tough order! Those with most appeal against it were not competing ov
er their optimum trip.

As with any 50-1 winner the line just couldn't come soon enough as Capelita closed the selection down, and the neck victory was plenty close enough for my fragile disposition ;)

We didn't have to wait too long to strike again. A no-show at the business end in the next for selection Pull The Plug (11-1) after leading early couldn't dampen spirits with d├ębutante, on this surface, the slow starting Autumns Blush (drawn 12 of 12 over 6f) winning under Adam Kirby.

From a 27 race Maiden in the opener, our focus shifted (for those still not riding on the adrenalin rush of the 50-1) to a 10 race Maiden selection in the form of Rock Of Leon (opened 3-1). Even in victory the horse appeared to be hell-bent on giving the race away in the steward’s room as it squeezed up Yorkshireman, on the rail for the vast part of the final furlong. Coincidentally, our first winner Aaranyow was drawn 5, our second winner Rock Of Leon was drawn 5!

The 7:15 became a battle between Plough Boy and our selection Black Dave (opened 11-2) with Adam Kirby adopting the same tactics which saw success on Autumns Blush. This time, to no avail as Plough Boy (drawn 10 of 11) came fast late and wide to grind out the victory under Chris Catlin.

Saeed bin Suroor might not be pulling up any trees on the turf but recorded another victory on the All Weather making it 6 winners from 9 runners (two of the three losers finishing second) in the 7:45 with Desert Snow (drawn 6 of 11) under Frederik Tylicki.

The 8:15 provided our final selection, and our only 2 point bet on the card with Star Anise (opened 11-2). There is something very special about a horse that, in the words of the commentator will come through the eye of a needle. It also speaks volumes for jockey George Baker who drove the selection through an ever decreasing gap between Rowlestone Lass and Zinnobar to take the race by ½ length.

Now it’s getting a little eerie! (X-Files music please) Our successes tonight are a 50-1 winner, a 3-1 winner, an 11-2 winner, and ALL drawn 5!

The final two races passed with nothing of much note with the jolly, 3yo May Queen (drawn 3 of 13) taking the 8:45 under Father Ted. A race where Noble Reach’s run should be ignored after the saddle slip early in the race and unceremoniously dumped Jordan Nason to the sand after the line.


The finale, I had given a wide berth too on the basis of competitiveness with any one of five horse taking my eye. A very wise choice in hindsight as not one of the five filled the frame with James Toller’s Saturation Point (drawn 7 of 12) taking the prize at 14-1 under Joe Fanning. A bigger surprise to me than our selection Aaranyow winning the first at 50-1. A result I will dine out on for some months ;)   


Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 18th October 2014

18th October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:45 bet365 Maiden Stakes (Tapeta) Cl5 5f20y
99.8% * Aaranyow  99.3% (2)
98.5% Qatar Princess 
97.3% Warm Order 
96.1% Quick Touch 
95.8% Gifted Spirit 
94.2% Resist 
Extreme Supreme 
Sir Billy Wright 
Capelita 
Our Grey Lady 

Wind and Rain no obstacle for 2yo Three Gracez @16-1

A miserable evening in every respect last night, wind and rain and bad results, but it was a good education on what heavy rain does to Tapeta as we witnessed times being returned similar to those recorded pre re-surfacing with the exception of one result which I will come to shortly. It wasn't until the last race that we saw a return with Diamonds A Dancing, available at between 5-1 and 9-2 on its opening show winning at an SP of 5-2 culminating in the loss of a point at worst.

A rather strange assortment of jockeys turned out for the evening with only a handful of the usual names present and Kieran Shoemark who appears to becoming an All Weather specialist took the opener from draw 1!, Mark Monaghan took the second from draw 3 on Philip McBrides Handicap Debutant Bush Beauty @ 10-1. Our first selection Anonymous John (7-1) could only muster 2nd to Clergyman (draw 6) after looking fleetingly like reeling the winner in.

After three races, it has become apparent that the course was riding markedly slower than the evening before. The rain and win persisted and more slow times are recorded by Stinky Socks – Cam Hardie (who had already ridden a double at Haydock) drawn 8, I’m Not Here – Gary Mahon (drawn 11), Wink Oliver – Graham Gibbons (drawn 4) before the performance of the evening.

Considering we have seen 2 x Class 6 3yo+ Handicaps, a Class 5 2yo Maiden, a Class 4 2yo Nursery, a Class 6 3yo+ Stakes race and the first of 2 Class 6 2yo Nurseries makes the time performance of 2yo and 16-1 shot: Three Gracez (drawn 6) exceptional on the evening. Already top rated on my figures with an unexceptional 98.8 pre-race, the manner of this victory would suggest there is plenty more to come and is a horse to follow on this surface after recording the best time of the evening.


The weather forecast is a little more promising for this evening and hopefully the wind will dry the track out, allowing for our selections to put their best foot forward on a faster surface this evening.

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 17th October 2014

17th October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:50 Hills Export All Around The World Apprentice Handicap (Tapeta) (Div I) Cl6 5f216y
100.9% * Red Cape  73 100.2% (3)
100.7% Logans Lad  61 100.1% (3)
100.2% Settle For Red 
100.0% Backstage Gossip  z
99.9% Divine Call  63 100.1% (2)
99.4% Sadiigah 
99.3% Invigilator  59 99.1% (1)
99.2% Dark Lane  67
98.3% Lucky Dan  73
98.3% Gauchita  98.2% (1)
97.2% Spider Lily 
Roomie 

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 17th October 2014

17th October 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:30 Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund (C & G) Median Auction Maiden 7f
98.8% * Pullman Brown 
Algonquin 
Bob´s The Business 
Boris Bike 
Cartographic 
Cradle Mountain 
High Pitch 
Jacobs Well 
Lord Carleton 
Masterchippy 
Pinehurst 
Sacrificial 
Tagg´s Island 
Wychwood Warrior 
Not A Bad Oul Day 

The Trials and Tribulations of Dundalk!

Around a year ago I started the process of compiling speed figures for Dundalk. Armed with a database covering all previous meetings, my early findings where that the results and markets were far more volatile, with only weekly meetings (usually Friday) making the form lines a little bit more tenuous than its All Weather counterparts in England. Handicaps are the exception to this rule and that is where I will focus my attention this evening.

As the Irish markets are not generally formed until late morning there is also little liquidity on the exchanges to place any meaningful wagers until early afternoon. Add to the mix the ‘Reserves’ policy which leaves you guessing on the make-up of the field until mid-day of the race at the earliest.

Last week was a typical scenario where the reserve, in this case Johann Back was my first selection with Wither Hills and He’s Our Music my next choices (all qualified under the same criteria). Waiting on the reserves to either be declared or withdrawn is not conducive to getting opening shows and left me getting my prices ordered, steadily filled throughout the day. In one scenario only half my stake was matched and the remainder was matched at BSP. This was far lower than opening shows regardless of any subsequent rule 4 the reserves may have incurred.

Today has seen a similar scenario playing out and against my better judgement I simply played 4 horses EW in the 8:40 (only two remain) and 3 in the 9:10 (all 3 still run)

These recommendations are EW plays @ EW prices!

8:40 Timjoe  12.5 (Exchange) 12-1 (Bookmakers) & Horsewithnoname 9.0 (Exchange) 8-1 (Bookmakers)

9:10  General Bunching, Golan Heights & Ed Led Jed – all around 20’s on both the exchanges and Bookmakers.

The whole process of making the most of Dundalk is still very much a work in progress. I hope for favourable results but expect at minimum a bold run ;)

Good Luck

The day we get it 100% right

A well-deserved 100% with our three selections yesterday evening and it would appear we were in good company. What may have set us apart is the prices we took! With 1 point @ Evens backed down to a 1-2 SP, 2 points @ 4-1 backed down to a 6-4 SP and 3 points @ 3-1 backed down to a 11-8 SP I believe we were on the most backed horses at Wolverhampton if not the whole day at the best prices they achieved.

A Richard Hughes / Hannon double started the card and as much as I have admiration for Richard Hughes horsemanship, I wouldn’t want him on my side for a forecast. After a jockey change of Luke Morris riding our next two selections: Elysian Prince and Dutch Art Dealer sandwiched by a Jeremy Noseda – Cam Hardie win on Black Granite, Hughsie, beaten off in to second by Silver Rainbow, drops his hands on Lear’s Rock and is picked off by Pocket Rocket in the 8:00. 

All that can be found on the BHA website regarding the incident is ‘The Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of LEAR'S ROCK (IRE) revealed that the gelding was stiff behind’

The jockey who reportedly recently stated to ATR he would go to the moon for a winner finished off the card with a treble after riding Gimme Five to victory in the 8:30.

The most poignant (perhaps a little to philosophical) moments came in the 7:00 and 7:30. In one race the top rated was beaten in to second by a horse, as yet unraced on the surface, so unrated. In the 7:30 the top rated beat home three horse in to 2nd, 3rd and 4th that were unraced / unrated. There are times that unrated horses are an annoyance while at the same time, if they are placed well, once they have shown their colours we know what we have!

I am hoping not to suffer the same close cut finishes today in our 5 races of which we have interests ;) For those taking an interest in Dundalk tonight, I will be posting some EW selections on this page for the last two races once the reserves have been taken out. 


Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Hello The Actuary

I must admit it's the first time I've seen this thread & personally I don't get involved too much in all-weather racing but I must commend you on the tremendous effort you put in & clearly you have a great knowledge & understanding of all-weather racing. I am certain that loads off gg.com members are finding this to be incredibly useful & benefitting from your work and this again illustrates the strengths & qualities of gg.com - all members prepared & willing to put time & effort in with the aim of helping fellow members achieve betting success & improve their knowledge. You have clearly had some very good results with your work & I commend you for that as I am sure all my fellow gg.com members do. You commented on

"it being a very disappointing last week. if it teaches me anything it will be to take nothing for granted" -

Now you said you made a profit in October so there is no need to worry or feel disappointment at a poor last week because that is the way when you study in depth because you can spend hours working on something only for it to all go wrong in a couple of minutes in a football match or matter of seconds in a horse race - I spend hours studying my football selections each week & yet in recent weeks it has been very frustrating with some poor results but that is not down to me doing things wrong but more to do with the random nature of football dictating that ultimately anything can & will happen. Horse races & football matches are random events that however much we assess & how much detailed analysis we do, the ultimate event is completely out of our control & as you quite rightly said you can take nothing for granted - horses that look certain to win easy run poorly, teams that look certain to win 3 or 4-0 lose 1-0 - that is the nature of sport & that is the nature of betting.As I said, I think the work you are doing is very informative & useful to gg.com members, so on behalf of my fellow members, here is a gg.com salute for you to show our appreciation.

THE ACTUARY - WE SALUTE YOU!!!

All the best with your all-weather bets & if I am considering having a bet on the all-weather I will definitely look for your work first to help me make my mind up.

Tommy
Horse Racing - Trip Down Memory Lane

As there is no AWT racing until Monday 13th I decided to do some research and while thumbing through some old racing books found an old page from Raceform which bought back a great memory from my past carefully folded within the pages.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 22nd October 2014

22nd October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:55 Betbright.com Download Our App Handicap Cl6 1m2f
100.2% * Mercury Magic 
99.9% Silken Waters  53
99.9% Hidden Asset  50
99.8% Mr Lando  63 101.2% (3)
99.7% Teide Peak  58 99.5% (1)
98.0% Lexington Blue 
98.0% Claude Greenwood 
97.9% Warbond  99.2% (1)
97.8% Purple Spot 
97.7% Highly Likely  55 96.5% (1)
97.5% Kingswinford  68
97.1% Berrahri 
97.1% Osorios Trial 
96.7% Nouvelle Ere 

Two 20-1 winners in 10 minutes!

The first triple meeting AWT day of the season and subscribers should have come away with very large smiles on their faces. Although the number of selections was best described as ‘unprecedented’ and far removed from the norm, winners at SP’s of 22-1, 20-1 and 5-2 made for a very profitable afternoon.

It was a day where we traded strike rate for profit, and the afternoon results, I feel, vindicated this decision. Never the less, I am acutely aware of the discomfort that is commonly felt with such a sacrifices.

A very eventful start to proceedings saw the most emphatic of victories from Lyfka who made amends for our losses 10 days ago. On that occasion she had lost all momentum, trapped on the rail and was forced to swerve violently around horses to deliver her challenge but still finishing a creditable second under Luke Morris. This time there was no mistake under Martin Lane as the selection strolled to a 9 length victory.

Prior to Lyfka’s race, over at Lingfield Park we witnessed carnage in the 2:30 when Velocitor, who had the whole field on the stretch turning for home, almost ran off the track taking the 10-11 favourite Percues with it. Unlike the favourite, Velocitor picked up enough momentum to still finish in the frame and should be one for the notebook.

We then had our golden 10 minutes. Most would be grateful for one 20-1 winner in a week. To get a 20-1 winner a day would be magnificent. We were about to get two 20-1 winners in 10 minutes!

First up another horse that we are familiar with after also being a selection LTO. My reading of the situation was that Anna Hesketh was being given another chance to get it right on Methaaly after doing too much, too soon 4 days ago. This time she got it spot on. 11yo Methaaly was left bowling along at its own pace while being edged steadily to three wide from its wide draw. As the field turned in to the straight Methaaly had simply coasted in to the lead. Whether this is Anna’s usual languid style, I'm unsure but little effort was made to keep the selections head in front at the line, scoring by an uncomfortable head at SP 22-1 from the late finishing Mambo Spirit.

10 minutes later we were collecting again as 20-1 Royal Acquisition took the 4:00 at Lingfield Park. The manner of the ride by Adam Beschizza would suggest that there was more money than just ours riding on the result.  Royal Acquisition sat in mid division before coming under a Luke Morris type drive for the final 2 furlongs with Beschizza's arms and legs flailing all the way to the line for a comfortable 1 length victory.

Like a game of football, it was a game of two halves. After Wolverhampton and Lingfield Park provided the profit in the afternoon. We found ourselves in a position where the evening selections at Kempton Park were running for fun to boost the day’s profit.

In stark contrast Kempton Park offered little excitement with only two seconds recorded. After completing the day’s returns, what became apparent is that although only a hop, skip and jump apart, and I can only assume suffer (or enjoy) similar weather conditions, Lingfield Park returned times slightly faster than my standards, whereas Kempton Park returns were extremely slow.

The fact that we are back at Kempton Park this evening should act as a note of caution. If deep harrowing has taken place between the last meeting and yesterday, I would be expecting a rather steady return to the normal conditions. Tonight might see a degree of improvement, but by what degree we are yet to find out!  


Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 21st October 2014

21st October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:30 £25 Free Bet At titanbet.co.uk Maiden Fillies´ Stakes (Bobis Race) Cl5 6f
99.3% * Dusty Blue  99.3% (1)
96.3% Sharissima  96.3% (1)
Always Smile 
Bahama Blue 
Beta Tauri 
Equilicious 
Hey You 
Lucy The Painter 
Marilyn Mon 

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 21st October 2014

21st October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:20 British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Tapeta) Cl5 5f216y
100.0% * Bonfire Heart  99.2% (2)
98.2% Darma 
96.6% Longside 
Bapak Asmara 
Secret Glance 
Star Of The Stage 
Twinkle Twinkle 

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 21st October 2014

21st October 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:00 £20 Free Bet At winner.co.uk Maiden Auction Stakes Cl6 7f1y
99.4% * Eatsleepracerepeat 
98.1% Edge Of Heaven  98.4% (1)
96.3% Celtic Ava 
93.4% Artesana  93.4% (1)
Mistamel 
Compton Mill 
To The Victor 
Dynamite Inventor 
Space Sheriff 
Easy Tiger 

Sunday, October 19, 2014

A 50-1 winner to start us off and all the 5's

When subscribers start the day with a 50-1 winner there is only one way to go, and that is down, and down came in the form of 2 points win Star Anise (opened 11-2) and Rock Of Leon (opened 3-1).

Although Aaronyow came into the Wolverhampton opener a 27 race Maiden, what was most appealing (other than the price) was that its LTO speed figure was recorded in company superior to this and was now racing in far lesser company, and as we are at bargain basement here, that is a tough order! Those with most appeal against it were not competing ov
er their optimum trip.

As with any 50-1 winner the line just couldn't come soon enough as Capelita closed the selection down, and the neck victory was plenty close enough for my fragile disposition ;)

We didn't have to wait too long to strike again. A no-show at the business end in the next for selection Pull The Plug (11-1) after leading early couldn't dampen spirits with d├ębutante, on this surface, the slow starting Autumns Blush (drawn 12 of 12 over 6f) winning under Adam Kirby.

From a 27 race Maiden in the opener, our focus shifted (for those still not riding on the adrenalin rush of the 50-1) to a 10 race Maiden selection in the form of Rock Of Leon (opened 3-1). Even in victory the horse appeared to be hell-bent on giving the race away in the steward’s room as it squeezed up Yorkshireman, on the rail for the vast part of the final furlong. Coincidentally, our first winner Aaranyow was drawn 5, our second winner Rock Of Leon was drawn 5!

The 7:15 became a battle between Plough Boy and our selection Black Dave (opened 11-2) with Adam Kirby adopting the same tactics which saw success on Autumns Blush. This time, to no avail as Plough Boy (drawn 10 of 11) came fast late and wide to grind out the victory under Chris Catlin.

Saeed bin Suroor might not be pulling up any trees on the turf but recorded another victory on the All Weather making it 6 winners from 9 runners (two of the three losers finishing second) in the 7:45 with Desert Snow (drawn 6 of 11) under Frederik Tylicki.

The 8:15 provided our final selection, and our only 2 point bet on the card with Star Anise (opened 11-2). There is something very special about a horse that, in the words of the commentator will come through the eye of a needle. It also speaks volumes for jockey George Baker who drove the selection through an ever decreasing gap between Rowlestone Lass and Zinnobar to take the race by ½ length.

Now it’s getting a little eerie! (X-Files music please) Our successes tonight are a 50-1 winner, a 3-1 winner, an 11-2 winner, and ALL drawn 5!

The final two races passed with nothing of much note with the jolly, 3yo May Queen (drawn 3 of 13) taking the 8:45 under Father Ted. A race where Noble Reach’s run should be ignored after the saddle slip early in the race and unceremoniously dumped Jordan Nason to the sand after the line.


The finale, I had given a wide berth too on the basis of competitiveness with any one of five horse taking my eye. A very wise choice in hindsight as not one of the five filled the frame with James Toller’s Saturation Point (drawn 7 of 12) taking the prize at 14-1 under Joe Fanning. A bigger surprise to me than our selection Aaranyow winning the first at 50-1. A result I will dine out on for some months ;)   


Saturday, October 18, 2014

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 18th October 2014

18th October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:45 bet365 Maiden Stakes (Tapeta) Cl5 5f20y
99.8% * Aaranyow  99.3% (2)
98.5% Qatar Princess 
97.3% Warm Order 
96.1% Quick Touch 
95.8% Gifted Spirit 
94.2% Resist 
Extreme Supreme 
Sir Billy Wright 
Capelita 
Our Grey Lady 

Wind and Rain no obstacle for 2yo Three Gracez @16-1

A miserable evening in every respect last night, wind and rain and bad results, but it was a good education on what heavy rain does to Tapeta as we witnessed times being returned similar to those recorded pre re-surfacing with the exception of one result which I will come to shortly. It wasn't until the last race that we saw a return with Diamonds A Dancing, available at between 5-1 and 9-2 on its opening show winning at an SP of 5-2 culminating in the loss of a point at worst.

A rather strange assortment of jockeys turned out for the evening with only a handful of the usual names present and Kieran Shoemark who appears to becoming an All Weather specialist took the opener from draw 1!, Mark Monaghan took the second from draw 3 on Philip McBrides Handicap Debutant Bush Beauty @ 10-1. Our first selection Anonymous John (7-1) could only muster 2nd to Clergyman (draw 6) after looking fleetingly like reeling the winner in.

After three races, it has become apparent that the course was riding markedly slower than the evening before. The rain and win persisted and more slow times are recorded by Stinky Socks – Cam Hardie (who had already ridden a double at Haydock) drawn 8, I’m Not Here – Gary Mahon (drawn 11), Wink Oliver – Graham Gibbons (drawn 4) before the performance of the evening.

Considering we have seen 2 x Class 6 3yo+ Handicaps, a Class 5 2yo Maiden, a Class 4 2yo Nursery, a Class 6 3yo+ Stakes race and the first of 2 Class 6 2yo Nurseries makes the time performance of 2yo and 16-1 shot: Three Gracez (drawn 6) exceptional on the evening. Already top rated on my figures with an unexceptional 98.8 pre-race, the manner of this victory would suggest there is plenty more to come and is a horse to follow on this surface after recording the best time of the evening.


The weather forecast is a little more promising for this evening and hopefully the wind will dry the track out, allowing for our selections to put their best foot forward on a faster surface this evening.

Friday, October 17, 2014

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 17th October 2014

17th October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:50 Hills Export All Around The World Apprentice Handicap (Tapeta) (Div I) Cl6 5f216y
100.9% * Red Cape  73 100.2% (3)
100.7% Logans Lad  61 100.1% (3)
100.2% Settle For Red 
100.0% Backstage Gossip  z
99.9% Divine Call  63 100.1% (2)
99.4% Sadiigah 
99.3% Invigilator  59 99.1% (1)
99.2% Dark Lane  67
98.3% Lucky Dan  73
98.3% Gauchita  98.2% (1)
97.2% Spider Lily 
Roomie 

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 17th October 2014

17th October 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:30 Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund (C & G) Median Auction Maiden 7f
98.8% * Pullman Brown 
Algonquin 
Bob´s The Business 
Boris Bike 
Cartographic 
Cradle Mountain 
High Pitch 
Jacobs Well 
Lord Carleton 
Masterchippy 
Pinehurst 
Sacrificial 
Tagg´s Island 
Wychwood Warrior 
Not A Bad Oul Day 

The Trials and Tribulations of Dundalk!

Around a year ago I started the process of compiling speed figures for Dundalk. Armed with a database covering all previous meetings, my early findings where that the results and markets were far more volatile, with only weekly meetings (usually Friday) making the form lines a little bit more tenuous than its All Weather counterparts in England. Handicaps are the exception to this rule and that is where I will focus my attention this evening.

As the Irish markets are not generally formed until late morning there is also little liquidity on the exchanges to place any meaningful wagers until early afternoon. Add to the mix the ‘Reserves’ policy which leaves you guessing on the make-up of the field until mid-day of the race at the earliest.

Last week was a typical scenario where the reserve, in this case Johann Back was my first selection with Wither Hills and He’s Our Music my next choices (all qualified under the same criteria). Waiting on the reserves to either be declared or withdrawn is not conducive to getting opening shows and left me getting my prices ordered, steadily filled throughout the day. In one scenario only half my stake was matched and the remainder was matched at BSP. This was far lower than opening shows regardless of any subsequent rule 4 the reserves may have incurred.

Today has seen a similar scenario playing out and against my better judgement I simply played 4 horses EW in the 8:40 (only two remain) and 3 in the 9:10 (all 3 still run)

These recommendations are EW plays @ EW prices!

8:40 Timjoe  12.5 (Exchange) 12-1 (Bookmakers) & Horsewithnoname 9.0 (Exchange) 8-1 (Bookmakers)

9:10  General Bunching, Golan Heights & Ed Led Jed – all around 20’s on both the exchanges and Bookmakers.

The whole process of making the most of Dundalk is still very much a work in progress. I hope for favourable results but expect at minimum a bold run ;)

Good Luck

The day we get it 100% right

A well-deserved 100% with our three selections yesterday evening and it would appear we were in good company. What may have set us apart is the prices we took! With 1 point @ Evens backed down to a 1-2 SP, 2 points @ 4-1 backed down to a 6-4 SP and 3 points @ 3-1 backed down to a 11-8 SP I believe we were on the most backed horses at Wolverhampton if not the whole day at the best prices they achieved.

A Richard Hughes / Hannon double started the card and as much as I have admiration for Richard Hughes horsemanship, I wouldn’t want him on my side for a forecast. After a jockey change of Luke Morris riding our next two selections: Elysian Prince and Dutch Art Dealer sandwiched by a Jeremy Noseda – Cam Hardie win on Black Granite, Hughsie, beaten off in to second by Silver Rainbow, drops his hands on Lear’s Rock and is picked off by Pocket Rocket in the 8:00. 

All that can be found on the BHA website regarding the incident is ‘The Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of LEAR'S ROCK (IRE) revealed that the gelding was stiff behind’

The jockey who reportedly recently stated to ATR he would go to the moon for a winner finished off the card with a treble after riding Gimme Five to victory in the 8:30.

The most poignant (perhaps a little to philosophical) moments came in the 7:00 and 7:30. In one race the top rated was beaten in to second by a horse, as yet unraced on the surface, so unrated. In the 7:30 the top rated beat home three horse in to 2nd, 3rd and 4th that were unraced / unrated. There are times that unrated horses are an annoyance while at the same time, if they are placed well, once they have shown their colours we know what we have!

I am hoping not to suffer the same close cut finishes today in our 5 races of which we have interests ;) For those taking an interest in Dundalk tonight, I will be posting some EW selections on this page for the last two races once the reserves have been taken out. 


How attractive a proposition was Pipssalio. Still a Maiden after 4 outings, its 3 outings as a 2yo read beaten 16 lengths in Class 5 3k Novice, beaten 16 lengths in a Class 6 2k Maiden, Beaten 14 lengths in a Class 4 3k Maiden. 1 outing as a 3yo beaten ½ length in a Class 4 4k Handicap. Looked to be way out of its depth being entered in a Class 3 14k Handicap. Pipssalio was 10lb out of the handicap and the jockey (Francis Norton) was putting up 2lb over weight.

My speed figures told me a different story. In fact I can remember being so bullish I was nailing my colours to the mast on all the forums and to the Raceform. This for me was the outstanding bet of the following day, the outstanding bet of the week and of the month. I went to bed unable to sleep with anticipation for the following day fully confident I would be making a lot of money. As soon as I got up on the day of the race I started checking the prices to ensure the tissue given the evening before was correct. Pipssalio was still 20-1.

The time of the race had arrived and in horror I watched as Pipssalio fell out of the stalls. By the time they had reached half-way in the 1 mile contest it was flat to the boards well adrift of the rest of the field with Franny Norton rowing away and beating the horse to death!

My feelings at the time were partly embarrassment due to the comments I had made on various forums , partly anger and all confidence in my ability to create meaningful speed figures gone in 60 seconds but being the eternal optimist still a slither of hope.

With 2 furlongs to go Pipssalio started to reduce the gap. With a furlong to go the rest of the field started to paddle and Pipssalio appeared to have sprouted wings and was closing on the leaders at an unbelievable rate. As they flashed passed the post Franny Norton had driven Pipssalio between the two leaders to make a three way photo finish. Even though I believed Pipssalio had got there it was going to be on the nod. Pipssalio got the verdict beating 2nd Everest by a short-head who in turn had beaten 3rd Tumbleweed Tor by a short-head.

That is the margin between winning or losing. The difference between the feeling of abject failure and believing you can walk on water.