THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 22ND OCTOBER KEMPTON PARK - 23RD OCTOBER KEMPTON PARK - 24TH OCTOBER WOLVERHAMPTON & DUNDALK - 25TH OCTOBER WOLVERHAMPTON - 28TH OCTOBER WOLVERHAMPTON - 29TH OCTOBER KEMPTON PARK - 3OTH OCTOBER LINGFIELD PARK & KEMPTON PARK - 31ST OCTOBER WOLVERHAMPTON & DUNDALK -

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 30th October 2014

30th October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
4:30 Come Jump Racing At Kempton 03.11.14 Selling Stakes Cl6 1m3f
100.6% * New Colours 
98.2% Emperor Ferdinand 
97.4% Les Gar Gan 
95.8% Worcharlie´slass 

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 30th October 2014

30th October 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
12:50 32Red Casino/British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Fillies´ Stakes (Bobis Race) (Div I) Cl5 7f1y
99.4% * Vixen Hill 
98.3% Lady Hare 
96.6% Makramah 
Colorada 
Crystal Zvezda 
Farletti 
Fine View 
Nancy Astor 
Regal Ways 
Rock Heroine 
Sweet Persuasion 

Dont let it be a dire day on the 25th Anniversary of All Weather Horse Racing!

On every front, the events of the week to date have been pretty miserable. While recharging the batteries in readiness for the onslaught of the All Weather Horse Racing season proper, to receive the news that a close family friend 10 years my junior had passed away. To then arrive back to the UK after enjoying the summer temperatures of the Rambla de Oria to pouring rain yesterday was perhaps to be expected.

I was hopeful that after the extraordinary bad luck we suffered on Tuesday evening at Wolverhampton would all be put to rest at Kempton Park. Most notably, the narrow defeat of Pimm Street (8-1) who I was convinced had won! and 2 point selection Lyfka who was almost bought down in the straight and never able to recover to mount a challenge.

Unfortunately all we achieved was to rack up more placed horses: Sabre Rock (3rd 8-1), Amood (2nd 5-1), Footstepsintherain (3rd 10-1), Tabjeel (2nd 85-40) and Set The Trend (2nd 3-1). Perhaps we are paying for the earlier great successes of October and given the narrow margins of defeat of several selections over the past 2 days I feel not adding to the tally over the last couple of days in Octiber would be an injustice.

More of a tragedy would be if we can’t remember such an auspicious day, as we celebrate 25 years of All Weather Horse Racing, (and I am old enough to remember that first All Weather meeting back in October 1989) by rowing in with some nice priced winners.

To put the growth of All Weather Horse Racing in to perspective, it now accounts for 20% of British racing. We have also seen the quality of horse racing on artificial surfaces improving dramatically with Group races now taking place and the likes of Aidan O’Brien using Southwell and Lingfield Park to test Giant’s Causeway, Galileo, Hawk Wing and Rock of Gibraltar.

While the UK public still stigmatise racing on an artificial surface, some of the best races in the world, in Dubai and America are run on the all-weather and nearly ALL trainers work their horses on the surface.


Like it or loathe it, all-weather is here to stay.


Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 29th October 2014

29th October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
4:55 Book Christmas Festival Tickets Now Handicap (Div I) Cl6 1m2f
101.4% Coillte Cailin  65
100.7% Snow Conditions 
100.5% * Assoluta  96.7% (1)
100.4% Sabre Rock  100.0% (1)
100.4% Mr Fickle  99.8% (1)
100.3% Warden Bond  52 100.5% (3)
99.4% Gentlemax 
99.3% Brave Decision  53 99.9% (3)
97.7% Always Resolute 
Highsalvia Cosmos 

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 28th October 2014

28th October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
4:40 Download The Free App @ Bookies.com Handicap (Tapeta) (Div I) Cl6 5f20y
100.2% * Warm Order  48 100.2% (1)
99.6% * Your Gifted  57 99.8% (3)
99.2% Danzoe  63 99.4% (2)
98.9% Lizzy´s Dream  47
98.9% Lazy Sioux  46 98.9% (1)
98.7% Interchoice Star  56 98.3% (1)
98.5% Play The Blues  45
98.2% Dream Sika  50 98.9% (3)
97.7% Little Briar Rose  99.6% (1)
97.7% On The High Tops 
93.8% Ichimoku 

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 25th October 2014

25th October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:45 Get Live Score Updates @ Footballscores.com Nursery Handicap (Tapeta) Cl6 5f20y
98.1% * Sparbrook  59
97.8% Most Tempting  55
97.5% Sky Steps 
97.3% Jimmy´s Girl  57 95.6% (1)
96.8% Don Ricardo 
96.7% Kylies Wild Card 
96.5% Air Of York 
95.2% Junior Ben  96.3% (1)
94.7% Macarthurs Park  94.4% (1)
94.5% Featsdontfailmenow 
Penalty Scorer 
Lydiate Lady 
Toni´s A Star 

More big priced winners and more selections.

In a magnificent week with double digit winners at 50-1, 22-1, 20-1, and last night rowing in with an 11-1 winner to add to the haul, the number one question from subscribers this week relates to the increase in the number of races carrying multiple selections for the ‘On The Money’ method.

Last night was no exception with one race carrying 2 selections (7:20) and one race (8:50) carrying three selections. It was the 8:50 which provided us with Innoko @ 11-1 with another of the selections Bridge That Gap (8-1) finishing 2nd. The race is an excellent example of why there has been a slight shift in the selection process.

Of all the four methods of selection the margins for ‘On The Money’ are the finest. What has been noticeable over the years (since 2008) is that all too frequently we are missing out on winners, in most cases big priced winners, by very narrow margins in selecting only the top qualifying horse.

With a qualifying score of 20% (what this relates to is irrelevant but has been carefully crafted ;) ) pictured here is how the 8:50 broke down:

Qualifiers in order were Bridge That Gap 24.5%, Lola Montez 21.7% and Innoko 21.4% and as tight as the finish was between Bridge The Gap (8-1) and Innoko (11-1) we would have been left extremely disappointed under the old rules! 

In what might have been a miserable day, hitting the post with Kelamita (10-1), Humour (11-8) and in my opinion the horse that should have won the 8:20 Classic Villager (3-1) who appeared to lug in behind the winner Jamie Osborne’s Life Less Ordinary until you see the head on which shows the latter continually edging in to Classic Villager for the whole of the final furlong stopping it from going past, Innoko was the difference. Having stood still and using the old method of selection we would have been looking at hitting the post again with Bridge The Gap (8-1).


On a poor day the selection of Innoko turned what could have a 9 point loss into 3 points gained at SP’s. A five year history would suggest that these big priced winners are not a blip, more an example of what the method is going to keep providing for us, more big priced winners and more selections. This will comprise strike rate With 5 races having ‘On The Money’ selections tonight I am hopeful of a very good evening ;)     

    

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 24th October 2014

24th October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Monsterbet Classified Stakes (Tapeta) Cl6 5f216y
100.0% Wedgewood Estates  54
99.7% * Encapsulated 
99.1% Thewestwalian 
98.8% Princess Rose  70
98.6% Daneglow  49
98.2% Aphrilis  98.2% (1)
98.0% Clear Focus 
97.7% Brean Splash Susie 
96.8% High Tone  49 99.8% (1)
96.5% Redalani 
94.4% Kingsway Lad 
Fujin 
Secret Applause 

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 24th October 2014

24th October 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:35 Floodlit Friday Nights At Dundalk Maiden 6f
100.4% * Adeste Fideles 
99.9% Taaluf 
99.6% Aru Cha Cha  65 99.4% (1)
96.6% Dylan Express  97.7% (2)
96.3% Hughs Flyer 
94.3% Intensified 
Roryslittlesister 
Broderick Falls 
Ko Samet 
Danz Gift 
Forebear 
Let Go Ego 
Chester Storm 
Sea Red 
Gaoth Tire 
Sirikoi 

A perfect 100% four out of four on an All Weather surface

Sandwiched between yesterday’s two winning selections at Kempton Park: 8:10 Ridgeway Storm (opened 6-4) who cantered to victory, and 9:10 Fiftyshadesofgrey (opened 7-1) who gained revenge for the narrow defeat the evening before, we witnessed Daaree bringing up a hat-trick of wins. That in itself is not so remarkable nowadays, but in my opinion the performance was remarkable.

Saeed bin Suroor is in excellent form with his All Weather runners at present and the performance of Daaree may see that run extending in to the new year. What captivated me with last night’s performance was the manner in which the horse appear to be doing just enough to maintain its healthy advantage.

Either the fast finisher, and there were several, were coming to the end of their limits, or Daaree had pulled out that little more under Paul Hannagan. My feeling is that the latter is the case. A horse we have had on our side in its two previous wins was overlooked this time as we gave the race a swerve, but surprisingly the horse still went off at 2-1 and put in the performance and time of the meeting.

Not only did Daaree notch up a hat-trick last night but remained unbeaten with a perfect 100% four out of four on an All Weathersurface. The speed figures of these wins make the horse a model of consistency which endorsement my opinion there is more in the locker. Ignore this horse at your peril!


Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Hello The Actuary

I must admit it's the first time I've seen this thread & personally I don't get involved too much in all-weather racing but I must commend you on the tremendous effort you put in & clearly you have a great knowledge & understanding of all-weather racing. I am certain that loads off gg.com members are finding this to be incredibly useful & benefitting from your work and this again illustrates the strengths & qualities of gg.com - all members prepared & willing to put time & effort in with the aim of helping fellow members achieve betting success & improve their knowledge. You have clearly had some very good results with your work & I commend you for that as I am sure all my fellow gg.com members do. You commented on

"it being a very disappointing last week. if it teaches me anything it will be to take nothing for granted" -

Now you said you made a profit in October so there is no need to worry or feel disappointment at a poor last week because that is the way when you study in depth because you can spend hours working on something only for it to all go wrong in a couple of minutes in a football match or matter of seconds in a horse race - I spend hours studying my football selections each week & yet in recent weeks it has been very frustrating with some poor results but that is not down to me doing things wrong but more to do with the random nature of football dictating that ultimately anything can & will happen. Horse races & football matches are random events that however much we assess & how much detailed analysis we do, the ultimate event is completely out of our control & as you quite rightly said you can take nothing for granted - horses that look certain to win easy run poorly, teams that look certain to win 3 or 4-0 lose 1-0 - that is the nature of sport & that is the nature of betting.As I said, I think the work you are doing is very informative & useful to gg.com members, so on behalf of my fellow members, here is a gg.com salute for you to show our appreciation.

THE ACTUARY - WE SALUTE YOU!!!

All the best with your all-weather bets & if I am considering having a bet on the all-weather I will definitely look for your work first to help me make my mind up.

Tommy
Horse Racing - Trip Down Memory Lane

As there is no AWT racing until Monday 13th I decided to do some research and while thumbing through some old racing books found an old page from Raceform which bought back a great memory from my past carefully folded within the pages.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 30th October 2014

30th October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
4:30 Come Jump Racing At Kempton 03.11.14 Selling Stakes Cl6 1m3f
100.6% * New Colours 
98.2% Emperor Ferdinand 
97.4% Les Gar Gan 
95.8% Worcharlie´slass 

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 30th October 2014

30th October 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
12:50 32Red Casino/British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Fillies´ Stakes (Bobis Race) (Div I) Cl5 7f1y
99.4% * Vixen Hill 
98.3% Lady Hare 
96.6% Makramah 
Colorada 
Crystal Zvezda 
Farletti 
Fine View 
Nancy Astor 
Regal Ways 
Rock Heroine 
Sweet Persuasion 

Dont let it be a dire day on the 25th Anniversary of All Weather Horse Racing!

On every front, the events of the week to date have been pretty miserable. While recharging the batteries in readiness for the onslaught of the All Weather Horse Racing season proper, to receive the news that a close family friend 10 years my junior had passed away. To then arrive back to the UK after enjoying the summer temperatures of the Rambla de Oria to pouring rain yesterday was perhaps to be expected.

I was hopeful that after the extraordinary bad luck we suffered on Tuesday evening at Wolverhampton would all be put to rest at Kempton Park. Most notably, the narrow defeat of Pimm Street (8-1) who I was convinced had won! and 2 point selection Lyfka who was almost bought down in the straight and never able to recover to mount a challenge.

Unfortunately all we achieved was to rack up more placed horses: Sabre Rock (3rd 8-1), Amood (2nd 5-1), Footstepsintherain (3rd 10-1), Tabjeel (2nd 85-40) and Set The Trend (2nd 3-1). Perhaps we are paying for the earlier great successes of October and given the narrow margins of defeat of several selections over the past 2 days I feel not adding to the tally over the last couple of days in Octiber would be an injustice.

More of a tragedy would be if we can’t remember such an auspicious day, as we celebrate 25 years of All Weather Horse Racing, (and I am old enough to remember that first All Weather meeting back in October 1989) by rowing in with some nice priced winners.

To put the growth of All Weather Horse Racing in to perspective, it now accounts for 20% of British racing. We have also seen the quality of horse racing on artificial surfaces improving dramatically with Group races now taking place and the likes of Aidan O’Brien using Southwell and Lingfield Park to test Giant’s Causeway, Galileo, Hawk Wing and Rock of Gibraltar.

While the UK public still stigmatise racing on an artificial surface, some of the best races in the world, in Dubai and America are run on the all-weather and nearly ALL trainers work their horses on the surface.


Like it or loathe it, all-weather is here to stay.


Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 29th October 2014

29th October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
4:55 Book Christmas Festival Tickets Now Handicap (Div I) Cl6 1m2f
101.4% Coillte Cailin  65
100.7% Snow Conditions 
100.5% * Assoluta  96.7% (1)
100.4% Sabre Rock  100.0% (1)
100.4% Mr Fickle  99.8% (1)
100.3% Warden Bond  52 100.5% (3)
99.4% Gentlemax 
99.3% Brave Decision  53 99.9% (3)
97.7% Always Resolute 
Highsalvia Cosmos 

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 28th October 2014

28th October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
4:40 Download The Free App @ Bookies.com Handicap (Tapeta) (Div I) Cl6 5f20y
100.2% * Warm Order  48 100.2% (1)
99.6% * Your Gifted  57 99.8% (3)
99.2% Danzoe  63 99.4% (2)
98.9% Lizzy´s Dream  47
98.9% Lazy Sioux  46 98.9% (1)
98.7% Interchoice Star  56 98.3% (1)
98.5% Play The Blues  45
98.2% Dream Sika  50 98.9% (3)
97.7% Little Briar Rose  99.6% (1)
97.7% On The High Tops 
93.8% Ichimoku 

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 25th October 2014

25th October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:45 Get Live Score Updates @ Footballscores.com Nursery Handicap (Tapeta) Cl6 5f20y
98.1% * Sparbrook  59
97.8% Most Tempting  55
97.5% Sky Steps 
97.3% Jimmy´s Girl  57 95.6% (1)
96.8% Don Ricardo 
96.7% Kylies Wild Card 
96.5% Air Of York 
95.2% Junior Ben  96.3% (1)
94.7% Macarthurs Park  94.4% (1)
94.5% Featsdontfailmenow 
Penalty Scorer 
Lydiate Lady 
Toni´s A Star 

More big priced winners and more selections.

In a magnificent week with double digit winners at 50-1, 22-1, 20-1, and last night rowing in with an 11-1 winner to add to the haul, the number one question from subscribers this week relates to the increase in the number of races carrying multiple selections for the ‘On The Money’ method.

Last night was no exception with one race carrying 2 selections (7:20) and one race (8:50) carrying three selections. It was the 8:50 which provided us with Innoko @ 11-1 with another of the selections Bridge That Gap (8-1) finishing 2nd. The race is an excellent example of why there has been a slight shift in the selection process.

Of all the four methods of selection the margins for ‘On The Money’ are the finest. What has been noticeable over the years (since 2008) is that all too frequently we are missing out on winners, in most cases big priced winners, by very narrow margins in selecting only the top qualifying horse.

With a qualifying score of 20% (what this relates to is irrelevant but has been carefully crafted ;) ) pictured here is how the 8:50 broke down:

Qualifiers in order were Bridge That Gap 24.5%, Lola Montez 21.7% and Innoko 21.4% and as tight as the finish was between Bridge The Gap (8-1) and Innoko (11-1) we would have been left extremely disappointed under the old rules! 

In what might have been a miserable day, hitting the post with Kelamita (10-1), Humour (11-8) and in my opinion the horse that should have won the 8:20 Classic Villager (3-1) who appeared to lug in behind the winner Jamie Osborne’s Life Less Ordinary until you see the head on which shows the latter continually edging in to Classic Villager for the whole of the final furlong stopping it from going past, Innoko was the difference. Having stood still and using the old method of selection we would have been looking at hitting the post again with Bridge The Gap (8-1).


On a poor day the selection of Innoko turned what could have a 9 point loss into 3 points gained at SP’s. A five year history would suggest that these big priced winners are not a blip, more an example of what the method is going to keep providing for us, more big priced winners and more selections. This will comprise strike rate With 5 races having ‘On The Money’ selections tonight I am hopeful of a very good evening ;)     

    

Friday, October 24, 2014

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 24th October 2014

24th October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Monsterbet Classified Stakes (Tapeta) Cl6 5f216y
100.0% Wedgewood Estates  54
99.7% * Encapsulated 
99.1% Thewestwalian 
98.8% Princess Rose  70
98.6% Daneglow  49
98.2% Aphrilis  98.2% (1)
98.0% Clear Focus 
97.7% Brean Splash Susie 
96.8% High Tone  49 99.8% (1)
96.5% Redalani 
94.4% Kingsway Lad 
Fujin 
Secret Applause 

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 24th October 2014

24th October 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:35 Floodlit Friday Nights At Dundalk Maiden 6f
100.4% * Adeste Fideles 
99.9% Taaluf 
99.6% Aru Cha Cha  65 99.4% (1)
96.6% Dylan Express  97.7% (2)
96.3% Hughs Flyer 
94.3% Intensified 
Roryslittlesister 
Broderick Falls 
Ko Samet 
Danz Gift 
Forebear 
Let Go Ego 
Chester Storm 
Sea Red 
Gaoth Tire 
Sirikoi 

A perfect 100% four out of four on an All Weather surface

Sandwiched between yesterday’s two winning selections at Kempton Park: 8:10 Ridgeway Storm (opened 6-4) who cantered to victory, and 9:10 Fiftyshadesofgrey (opened 7-1) who gained revenge for the narrow defeat the evening before, we witnessed Daaree bringing up a hat-trick of wins. That in itself is not so remarkable nowadays, but in my opinion the performance was remarkable.

Saeed bin Suroor is in excellent form with his All Weather runners at present and the performance of Daaree may see that run extending in to the new year. What captivated me with last night’s performance was the manner in which the horse appear to be doing just enough to maintain its healthy advantage.

Either the fast finisher, and there were several, were coming to the end of their limits, or Daaree had pulled out that little more under Paul Hannagan. My feeling is that the latter is the case. A horse we have had on our side in its two previous wins was overlooked this time as we gave the race a swerve, but surprisingly the horse still went off at 2-1 and put in the performance and time of the meeting.

Not only did Daaree notch up a hat-trick last night but remained unbeaten with a perfect 100% four out of four on an All Weathersurface. The speed figures of these wins make the horse a model of consistency which endorsement my opinion there is more in the locker. Ignore this horse at your peril!


How attractive a proposition was Pipssalio. Still a Maiden after 4 outings, its 3 outings as a 2yo read beaten 16 lengths in Class 5 3k Novice, beaten 16 lengths in a Class 6 2k Maiden, Beaten 14 lengths in a Class 4 3k Maiden. 1 outing as a 3yo beaten ½ length in a Class 4 4k Handicap. Looked to be way out of its depth being entered in a Class 3 14k Handicap. Pipssalio was 10lb out of the handicap and the jockey (Francis Norton) was putting up 2lb over weight.

My speed figures told me a different story. In fact I can remember being so bullish I was nailing my colours to the mast on all the forums and to the Raceform. This for me was the outstanding bet of the following day, the outstanding bet of the week and of the month. I went to bed unable to sleep with anticipation for the following day fully confident I would be making a lot of money. As soon as I got up on the day of the race I started checking the prices to ensure the tissue given the evening before was correct. Pipssalio was still 20-1.

The time of the race had arrived and in horror I watched as Pipssalio fell out of the stalls. By the time they had reached half-way in the 1 mile contest it was flat to the boards well adrift of the rest of the field with Franny Norton rowing away and beating the horse to death!

My feelings at the time were partly embarrassment due to the comments I had made on various forums , partly anger and all confidence in my ability to create meaningful speed figures gone in 60 seconds but being the eternal optimist still a slither of hope.

With 2 furlongs to go Pipssalio started to reduce the gap. With a furlong to go the rest of the field started to paddle and Pipssalio appeared to have sprouted wings and was closing on the leaders at an unbelievable rate. As they flashed passed the post Franny Norton had driven Pipssalio between the two leaders to make a three way photo finish. Even though I believed Pipssalio had got there it was going to be on the nod. Pipssalio got the verdict beating 2nd Everest by a short-head who in turn had beaten 3rd Tumbleweed Tor by a short-head.

That is the margin between winning or losing. The difference between the feeling of abject failure and believing you can walk on water.