THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 30th SEPTEMBER WOLVERHAMPTON - 1st OCTOBER KEMPTON PARK - 2nd OCTOBER KEMPTON PARK - 3rd OCTOBER DUNDALK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 4th OCTOBER WOLVERHAMPTON - 8th OCTOBER KEMPTON PARK

1 to avoid at Wolverhampton (Dunstall Park)

We are now 97 races in to the new Tapeta surfaced at Wolverhampton and although a snap-shot at such an early point may appear premature, being somewhat disappointed with the results to-date, I thought a cursory trend analysis might throw up some interesting angles.
My first port of call was to look at where the winners were coming from:

There is little to gleam from the results beyond the growing increase in those horses that are re-appearing on Tapeta (WOLVt) and the obvious decrease in those that appear last on the old surface (WOLV). The transition from Lingfield Park to Tapeta looks at this stage more favourable than Kempton Park. The blank at the bottom of the list signifies those horse that have not previously raced on an artificial surface.

The statistics regarding the draw are as follow with the distances displayed as decimal parts of a mile .64 = 5f 20yds, 0.75 = 5f 216yds etc:

Draw 1 appears to be the coffin box with only 3 wins from 97 races with middle boxes (particularly 4, 6 and 7) looking particularly favourable. What appears to be more noticeable are the successes of the higher draws in larger fields. More surprising is that 50% of the successes came over the minimum trip (0.64) of 5f.



Broken down by trip and draw:

At this stage it is hard to make a case for any distinct draw bias other than to state that the longer the trip, the more any potential bias is being negated. I would suggest that the two wins from stall 2 over 2 miles is coincidence rather than framing a bias. If Fridays meeting is a sign of things to come, we can look forward to a bias free Wolverhampton with stalls 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 all having a success and further damning of stall 1 which I will be keen to avoid at present. Saturday’s meeting looked decidedly different with 2, 7, 8, 7, 2, 7, 7, 4 providing the winners.

From a time perspective, it won’t be until we have some 4yo+ times that we can tightened up the standards and get a better comparison, but we are currently recording time faster than the old standard. This is partly due to the better quality of races during this time of year and no doubt the larger and more competitive fields are playing a part. 


Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 27th September 2014

27th September 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:30 toteplacepot Win Without Backing A Winner Claiming Stakes Cl6 5f20y
100.3% * Ben Hall 
100.2% Desert Strike  71
99.6% Peace Seeker  69
98.9% Dark Lane  68
98.3% Fitz Flyer 
98.1% Monty Fay  56
98.0% Profile Star  71

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 26th September 2014

26th September 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:45 Bet toteplacepot Handicap (Tapeta) Cl6 1m141y
101.2% * Abigails Angel 
100.0% Appyjack  55
99.4% Eastward Ho  54 99.2% (1)
98.8% Evacusafe Lady  53 98.8% (1)
98.6% Ding Ding 
97.8% Pipers Piping  65
97.8% Thomas Blossom 
97.8% Bajan Story 
96.0% Indus Valley 
95.5% Severn Crossing 
Bosstime 
Yawail 
Glasgon 

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 26th September 2014

26th September 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Auction Maiden 6f
Indian Tomahawk 
Mattydillon 
Ningxai 
Our Man Phil 
Sors 
Rapid Eye 
Extreme Appeal 
William Ashford 
Belezza Oscura 
Broadfield Puddle 
Ginger Muffin 
Invincible Missile 
Ostatnia 
Red Ivy 
Expreso Brasileiro 
Not A Bad Oul Day 

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 25th September 2014

25th September 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Visit And Dine In The Panoramic Maiden Auction Stakes Cl6 6f
97.2% * Saint Honore 
95.1% Paloma Dancer 
Captain Marmalade 
Caught On The Bid 
Pomme De Guerre 
Mountain Rescue 
Machiavelian Storm 
Blackadder 
Catakanta 
Celtic Ava 
Viva Madiba 
Closing 

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 24th September 2014

24th September 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:50 BetBright Mobile Maiden Stakes Cl5 6f
99.4% * Field Game 
96.4% Tangramm 
96.4% Junior Ben 
Chevallier 
John Joiner 
You´re Cool 
Equita 
Fligaz 
Jellwa 
Star Fire 

Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Hello The Actuary

I must admit it's the first time I've seen this thread & personally I don't get involved too much in all-weather racing but I must commend you on the tremendous effort you put in & clearly you have a great knowledge & understanding of all-weather racing. I am certain that loads off gg.com members are finding this to be incredibly useful & benefitting from your work and this again illustrates the strengths & qualities of gg.com - all members prepared & willing to put time & effort in with the aim of helping fellow members achieve betting success & improve their knowledge. You have clearly had some very good results with your work & I commend you for that as I am sure all my fellow gg.com members do. You commented on

"it being a very disappointing last week. if it teaches me anything it will be to take nothing for granted" -

Now you said you made a profit in October so there is no need to worry or feel disappointment at a poor last week because that is the way when you study in depth because you can spend hours working on something only for it to all go wrong in a couple of minutes in a football match or matter of seconds in a horse race - I spend hours studying my football selections each week & yet in recent weeks it has been very frustrating with some poor results but that is not down to me doing things wrong but more to do with the random nature of football dictating that ultimately anything can & will happen. Horse races & football matches are random events that however much we assess & how much detailed analysis we do, the ultimate event is completely out of our control & as you quite rightly said you can take nothing for granted - horses that look certain to win easy run poorly, teams that look certain to win 3 or 4-0 lose 1-0 - that is the nature of sport & that is the nature of betting.As I said, I think the work you are doing is very informative & useful to gg.com members, so on behalf of my fellow members, here is a gg.com salute for you to show our appreciation.

THE ACTUARY - WE SALUTE YOU!!!

All the best with your all-weather bets & if I am considering having a bet on the all-weather I will definitely look for your work first to help me make my mind up.

Tommy
Horse Racing - Trip Down Memory Lane

As there is no AWT racing until Monday 13th I decided to do some research and while thumbing through some old racing books found an old page from Raceform which bought back a great memory from my past carefully folded within the pages.

Monday, September 29, 2014

1 to avoid at Wolverhampton (Dunstall Park)

We are now 97 races in to the new Tapeta surfaced at Wolverhampton and although a snap-shot at such an early point may appear premature, being somewhat disappointed with the results to-date, I thought a cursory trend analysis might throw up some interesting angles.
My first port of call was to look at where the winners were coming from:

There is little to gleam from the results beyond the growing increase in those horses that are re-appearing on Tapeta (WOLVt) and the obvious decrease in those that appear last on the old surface (WOLV). The transition from Lingfield Park to Tapeta looks at this stage more favourable than Kempton Park. The blank at the bottom of the list signifies those horse that have not previously raced on an artificial surface.

The statistics regarding the draw are as follow with the distances displayed as decimal parts of a mile .64 = 5f 20yds, 0.75 = 5f 216yds etc:

Draw 1 appears to be the coffin box with only 3 wins from 97 races with middle boxes (particularly 4, 6 and 7) looking particularly favourable. What appears to be more noticeable are the successes of the higher draws in larger fields. More surprising is that 50% of the successes came over the minimum trip (0.64) of 5f.



Broken down by trip and draw:

At this stage it is hard to make a case for any distinct draw bias other than to state that the longer the trip, the more any potential bias is being negated. I would suggest that the two wins from stall 2 over 2 miles is coincidence rather than framing a bias. If Fridays meeting is a sign of things to come, we can look forward to a bias free Wolverhampton with stalls 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 all having a success and further damning of stall 1 which I will be keen to avoid at present. Saturday’s meeting looked decidedly different with 2, 7, 8, 7, 2, 7, 7, 4 providing the winners.

From a time perspective, it won’t be until we have some 4yo+ times that we can tightened up the standards and get a better comparison, but we are currently recording time faster than the old standard. This is partly due to the better quality of races during this time of year and no doubt the larger and more competitive fields are playing a part. 


Saturday, September 27, 2014

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 27th September 2014

27th September 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:30 toteplacepot Win Without Backing A Winner Claiming Stakes Cl6 5f20y
100.3% * Ben Hall 
100.2% Desert Strike  71
99.6% Peace Seeker  69
98.9% Dark Lane  68
98.3% Fitz Flyer 
98.1% Monty Fay  56
98.0% Profile Star  71

Friday, September 26, 2014

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 26th September 2014

26th September 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:45 Bet toteplacepot Handicap (Tapeta) Cl6 1m141y
101.2% * Abigails Angel 
100.0% Appyjack  55
99.4% Eastward Ho  54 99.2% (1)
98.8% Evacusafe Lady  53 98.8% (1)
98.6% Ding Ding 
97.8% Pipers Piping  65
97.8% Thomas Blossom 
97.8% Bajan Story 
96.0% Indus Valley 
95.5% Severn Crossing 
Bosstime 
Yawail 
Glasgon 

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 26th September 2014

26th September 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Auction Maiden 6f
Indian Tomahawk 
Mattydillon 
Ningxai 
Our Man Phil 
Sors 
Rapid Eye 
Extreme Appeal 
William Ashford 
Belezza Oscura 
Broadfield Puddle 
Ginger Muffin 
Invincible Missile 
Ostatnia 
Red Ivy 
Expreso Brasileiro 
Not A Bad Oul Day 

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 25th September 2014

25th September 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Visit And Dine In The Panoramic Maiden Auction Stakes Cl6 6f
97.2% * Saint Honore 
95.1% Paloma Dancer 
Captain Marmalade 
Caught On The Bid 
Pomme De Guerre 
Mountain Rescue 
Machiavelian Storm 
Blackadder 
Catakanta 
Celtic Ava 
Viva Madiba 
Closing 

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 24th September 2014

24th September 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:50 BetBright Mobile Maiden Stakes Cl5 6f
99.4% * Field Game 
96.4% Tangramm 
96.4% Junior Ben 
Chevallier 
John Joiner 
You´re Cool 
Equita 
Fligaz 
Jellwa 
Star Fire 

How attractive a proposition was Pipssalio. Still a Maiden after 4 outings, its 3 outings as a 2yo read beaten 16 lengths in Class 5 3k Novice, beaten 16 lengths in a Class 6 2k Maiden, Beaten 14 lengths in a Class 4 3k Maiden. 1 outing as a 3yo beaten ½ length in a Class 4 4k Handicap. Looked to be way out of its depth being entered in a Class 3 14k Handicap. Pipssalio was 10lb out of the handicap and the jockey (Francis Norton) was putting up 2lb over weight.

My speed figures told me a different story. In fact I can remember being so bullish I was nailing my colours to the mast on all the forums and to the Raceform. This for me was the outstanding bet of the following day, the outstanding bet of the week and of the month. I went to bed unable to sleep with anticipation for the following day fully confident I would be making a lot of money. As soon as I got up on the day of the race I started checking the prices to ensure the tissue given the evening before was correct. Pipssalio was still 20-1.

The time of the race had arrived and in horror I watched as Pipssalio fell out of the stalls. By the time they had reached half-way in the 1 mile contest it was flat to the boards well adrift of the rest of the field with Franny Norton rowing away and beating the horse to death!

My feelings at the time were partly embarrassment due to the comments I had made on various forums , partly anger and all confidence in my ability to create meaningful speed figures gone in 60 seconds but being the eternal optimist still a slither of hope.

With 2 furlongs to go Pipssalio started to reduce the gap. With a furlong to go the rest of the field started to paddle and Pipssalio appeared to have sprouted wings and was closing on the leaders at an unbelievable rate. As they flashed passed the post Franny Norton had driven Pipssalio between the two leaders to make a three way photo finish. Even though I believed Pipssalio had got there it was going to be on the nod. Pipssalio got the verdict beating 2nd Everest by a short-head who in turn had beaten 3rd Tumbleweed Tor by a short-head.

That is the margin between winning or losing. The difference between the feeling of abject failure and believing you can walk on water.