THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 23rd SEPTEMBER LINGFIELD PARK - 24th SEMPTEMBER KEMPTON PARK - 25th SEMPTEMBER KEMPTON PARK - 26th SEPTEMBER WOLVERHAMPTON - 27th SEPTEMBER WOLVERHAMPTON -

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Monday 22nd September 2014

22nd September 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:10 BetVictor.com/British Stallion Stud EBF Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m2f
99.7% * Framley Garth 
99.4% Forza Blacky 
96.2% Directional 
Classic Villager 
Danegeld 
Deeper Magic 
Game Show 
Jolie De Vivre 
Mister Rockandroll 
Who´Sthedaddy 
Sheila Belle 

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 20th September 2014

20th September 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:50 Win Big With The totejackpot Handicap (Tapeta) Cl6 5f20y
100.0% * China Excels  47 99.6% (1)
99.4% Lucky Mark  58 99.6% (1)
99.0% Aaranyow  98.7% (1)
98.9% First Rebellion  48
98.7% Your Gifted  57 99.1% (2)
98.5% Volcanic Dust  59
98.3% Dream Sika  98.3% (1)
97.6% Yankee Red 
96.9% Avonvalley  61 97.1% (1)
96.4% Danzoe  66
96.0% Saga Lout  71
Little Briar Rose 
Rat Catcher 

Why Holiday Magic and Graylyn Ruby?

Question: If selections are based upon your speed figures how do we end up with Holiday Magic and Graylyn Ruby as selections?


Selections emailed to subscribers the afternoon of 17th September 2014

Answer: As the heading they appear under suggests, the selection process also considers class and some visual assistance.

Although I choose speed as my weapon of choice you have to consider that a horse will only show its optimum speed when meeting its ideal conditions. My view is, this is not so much trip orientated (within a furlong or so) but more importantly pace. In higher class races a horse may find the pace uncomfortable and be unable to mount anything of a challenge in the closing stages. In lesser company, the horse is likely to be able to hold more in reserve. Equally a better class horse may struggle in races in lower class with a slow pace where it has been unable to utilise its higher cruising speed. Speed Figures help to decipher under what circumstances a horse is likely to produce its best.


In the case of Holiday Magic, there was no doubt that it was comfortable in this company as its LTO win suggested. This was confirmed by its previous run when bumped during its run going down by only ¾ length.



Graylyn Ruby had equally good credentials on the Speed and Class criteria, but the margin between itself and its rivals was not sufficient to warrant a selection. None the less, under Trip Handicap which is decided on its visual performance (Eye Catcher), the smooth headway made mid race over a similar trip at Lingfield Park last time on the surface looked far superior to its nearest rivals Oakbank and Dr Finley.


These selections might not rank among the bigger priced winning selections: Burn Sugar 22-1, Spiritual Star 12-1 Sweeping Up 10-1 and Prince Bishop 9-1 among others during September but I can only highlight the potential winners. Bookmakers decide the prices ;)


Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 18th September 2014

18th September 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Book Christmas Parties On 01932 753518 Handicap Cl6 1m
100.3% Welsh Inlet  55 99.0% (2)
100.0% * Wotalad 
99.4% Greek Islands  55 100.6% (3)
99.3% Lutine Charlie  63 98.8% (10)
99.3% Warbond  57 99.8% (18)
99.2% Rock Band 
99.2% Cyflymder  63 99.4% (1)
99.0% Bladewood Girl  57 99.6% (8)
98.7% Squirrel Wood  54 98.2% (3)
98.4% Divine Rule  55 99.4% (21)
97.9% Rochelle  97.4% (2)
97.6% Addikt  98.3% (2)
97.5% Berwin 
97.4% Buzz Law 
6:10 £25 Free Bet At BetVictor.com Maiden Stakes (Div I) Cl5 1m
99.9% * New Year´s Night 
99.8% Santa Teresa 
99.2% Bryant Park 
98.4% Eton Dorney 
97.2% Famous Tales 
96.6% Emerald Swell 
96.0% Lostintheclouds  96.0% (1)
Dubai Star 
Duke Of Dunton 
Priors Brook 
Nightlight 
Otterbridge 
6:40 £25 Free Bet At BetVictor.com Maiden Stakes (Div II) Cl5 1m
101.0% * Cape Summit  71 99.2% (4)
98.8% Moonfaarid  98.8% (1)
98.6% Fine Tune 
98.4% The Steward  98.4% (1)
98.4% Mississippi Queen 
96.7% Keeper´s Ring  96.7% (1)
95.8% Sweet Charlie 
94.4% Majnon Fajer  96.6% (1)
Approaching 
Satchville Flyer 
Wowee 
Dubai Skyline 
7:10 Download The BetVictor App Now Handicap Cl5 1m
100.3% * Scarlet Plum 
100.0% Madame Mirasol 
99.8% Surety  99.8% (1)
99.5% Dream Impossible 
99.5% Like A Prayer  62 99.5% (2)
99.4% Ghosting 
99.2% Holiday Magic  99.2% (1)
99.0% Frederic  99.0% (1)
99.0% Djinni 
98.8% Kubeba  98.7% (2)
97.6% Lady Marl 
7:40 Download The BetVictor Instabet App Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m4f
102.3% * Artful Rogue 
101.7% * Rembrandt Van Rijn 
101.5% Gale Force  101.5% (1)
100.3% Golden Bird  100.3% (1)
97.8% Black Label 
96.7% Tiger Stone 
92.7% Mad About Harry 
Perdu 
Instant Karma 
Red Inferno 
Astrocat 
8:10 Follow @BetVictorRacing On Twitter Handicap Cl6 2m
99.8% * Newtown Cross  53 98.7% (4)
99.7% Sawwala 
99.6% Superciliary  56 98.0% (3)
99.5% Vexillum  99.9% (1)
98.7% Dr Finley  59 99.2% (9)
98.0% Oakbank  47
97.9% Lucky Diva  53
97.4% Archiebeau 
97.2% Bogey Hole 
96.9% Boston Blue  56 98.5% (9)
96.7% Graylyn Ruby  57 99.6% (5)
Spanish Fork 
Flashy Star 
Paple Blessing 
8:40 BetVictor.com Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl4 1m3f
102.3% Little Buxted  101.0% (1)
101.6% * Syncopate 
101.5% Manomine  99.6% (2)
100.3% Almerzem 
100.2% Hector´s Chance  63 100.6% (4)
100.0% Elbereth  100.0% (1)
99.7% Guising 
99.1% Itsnowcato 
98.8% Kastini 
98.1% Castle Combe  75 100.6% (1)
97.8% Thecornishcowboy  101.1% (4)
9:10 Barn Dance Christmas Parties At Kempton Handicap Cl6 6f
101.3% * Blue Bounty 
100.7% Maymyo  57 100.7% (1)
100.1% Stapleford Lad  53 100.1% (1)
99.4% Honey Meadow  65 98.8% (3)
99.0% Dylan´s Centenary  99.0% (1)
96.7% Sir Percy Blakeney 
96.1% Ignight  96.1% (1)
95.5% Wedgewood Estates  56 97.5% (3)
95.0% Three Pips  67 95.0% (1)
94.5% Pieman´s Girl 
Findhorn Magic 





The richest all-weather raceday in Europe and the Channel 4 U-Turn

After having received widespread praise for the inaugural staging of the All-Weather Championships Finals Day at Lingfield Park, racing's sole terrestrial television station has now picked up the gauntlet.to broadcast the 2015 All-Weather Championships Finals Day on Good Friday.

This decision is very much at odds with their stance last year stating that Good Friday is a family day and that they had no interest in broadcasting Horse Racing on a Good Friday.

Jamie Aitchison, Channel 4 commissioning editor for sport, said: "After the success of last year's launch, we are delighted to bring the 2015 All-Weather Championships Finals Day for the first time to terrestrial viewers.

With £1 million in prize-money across the card up for grabs, the richest all-weather race day in Europe will be held on April 3. The build-up to All-Weather Championships Final Day starts in October and consists of over 200 fixtures at Kempton, Lingfield, Southwell and Wolverhampton.

With no news yet from Chelmsford City (formerly Great Leighs) as to whether they have won over the BHA for 2015 fixtures, and with the Newcastle turf being ripped up in favour of an All Weather surface, I am sure it wont be long before Trainers north of Wolverhampton will be making the request to get in on the act.  

Tony Kelly, managing director for Arena Racing Company, which owns Lingfield said: "After only their first year the All-Weather Championships are already making a positive impact on raising the profile and prestige of all-weather racing in Great Britain and The ARC team is absolutely delighted Channel 4 will be showing the All-Weather Championships £1 million Finals Day next year. "We are eager to get started on 'Year Two' and look forward to both Channel 4 and At The Races continuing to do a fantastic job of showcasing racing across ARC's racecourses as we seek to promote and grow British racing in the years ahead."

Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Hello The Actuary

I must admit it's the first time I've seen this thread & personally I don't get involved too much in all-weather racing but I must commend you on the tremendous effort you put in & clearly you have a great knowledge & understanding of all-weather racing. I am certain that loads off gg.com members are finding this to be incredibly useful & benefitting from your work and this again illustrates the strengths & qualities of gg.com - all members prepared & willing to put time & effort in with the aim of helping fellow members achieve betting success & improve their knowledge. You have clearly had some very good results with your work & I commend you for that as I am sure all my fellow gg.com members do. You commented on

"it being a very disappointing last week. if it teaches me anything it will be to take nothing for granted" -

Now you said you made a profit in October so there is no need to worry or feel disappointment at a poor last week because that is the way when you study in depth because you can spend hours working on something only for it to all go wrong in a couple of minutes in a football match or matter of seconds in a horse race - I spend hours studying my football selections each week & yet in recent weeks it has been very frustrating with some poor results but that is not down to me doing things wrong but more to do with the random nature of football dictating that ultimately anything can & will happen. Horse races & football matches are random events that however much we assess & how much detailed analysis we do, the ultimate event is completely out of our control & as you quite rightly said you can take nothing for granted - horses that look certain to win easy run poorly, teams that look certain to win 3 or 4-0 lose 1-0 - that is the nature of sport & that is the nature of betting.As I said, I think the work you are doing is very informative & useful to gg.com members, so on behalf of my fellow members, here is a gg.com salute for you to show our appreciation.

THE ACTUARY - WE SALUTE YOU!!!

All the best with your all-weather bets & if I am considering having a bet on the all-weather I will definitely look for your work first to help me make my mind up.

Tommy
Horse Racing - Trip Down Memory Lane

As there is no AWT racing until Monday 13th I decided to do some research and while thumbing through some old racing books found an old page from Raceform which bought back a great memory from my past carefully folded within the pages.

Monday, September 22, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Monday 22nd September 2014

22nd September 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:10 BetVictor.com/British Stallion Stud EBF Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m2f
99.7% * Framley Garth 
99.4% Forza Blacky 
96.2% Directional 
Classic Villager 
Danegeld 
Deeper Magic 
Game Show 
Jolie De Vivre 
Mister Rockandroll 
Who´Sthedaddy 
Sheila Belle 

Saturday, September 20, 2014

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 20th September 2014

20th September 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:50 Win Big With The totejackpot Handicap (Tapeta) Cl6 5f20y
100.0% * China Excels  47 99.6% (1)
99.4% Lucky Mark  58 99.6% (1)
99.0% Aaranyow  98.7% (1)
98.9% First Rebellion  48
98.7% Your Gifted  57 99.1% (2)
98.5% Volcanic Dust  59
98.3% Dream Sika  98.3% (1)
97.6% Yankee Red 
96.9% Avonvalley  61 97.1% (1)
96.4% Danzoe  66
96.0% Saga Lout  71
Little Briar Rose 
Rat Catcher 

Friday, September 19, 2014

Why Holiday Magic and Graylyn Ruby?

Question: If selections are based upon your speed figures how do we end up with Holiday Magic and Graylyn Ruby as selections?


Selections emailed to subscribers the afternoon of 17th September 2014

Answer: As the heading they appear under suggests, the selection process also considers class and some visual assistance.

Although I choose speed as my weapon of choice you have to consider that a horse will only show its optimum speed when meeting its ideal conditions. My view is, this is not so much trip orientated (within a furlong or so) but more importantly pace. In higher class races a horse may find the pace uncomfortable and be unable to mount anything of a challenge in the closing stages. In lesser company, the horse is likely to be able to hold more in reserve. Equally a better class horse may struggle in races in lower class with a slow pace where it has been unable to utilise its higher cruising speed. Speed Figures help to decipher under what circumstances a horse is likely to produce its best.


In the case of Holiday Magic, there was no doubt that it was comfortable in this company as its LTO win suggested. This was confirmed by its previous run when bumped during its run going down by only ¾ length.



Graylyn Ruby had equally good credentials on the Speed and Class criteria, but the margin between itself and its rivals was not sufficient to warrant a selection. None the less, under Trip Handicap which is decided on its visual performance (Eye Catcher), the smooth headway made mid race over a similar trip at Lingfield Park last time on the surface looked far superior to its nearest rivals Oakbank and Dr Finley.


These selections might not rank among the bigger priced winning selections: Burn Sugar 22-1, Spiritual Star 12-1 Sweeping Up 10-1 and Prince Bishop 9-1 among others during September but I can only highlight the potential winners. Bookmakers decide the prices ;)


Thursday, September 18, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 18th September 2014

18th September 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Book Christmas Parties On 01932 753518 Handicap Cl6 1m
100.3% Welsh Inlet  55 99.0% (2)
100.0% * Wotalad 
99.4% Greek Islands  55 100.6% (3)
99.3% Lutine Charlie  63 98.8% (10)
99.3% Warbond  57 99.8% (18)
99.2% Rock Band 
99.2% Cyflymder  63 99.4% (1)
99.0% Bladewood Girl  57 99.6% (8)
98.7% Squirrel Wood  54 98.2% (3)
98.4% Divine Rule  55 99.4% (21)
97.9% Rochelle  97.4% (2)
97.6% Addikt  98.3% (2)
97.5% Berwin 
97.4% Buzz Law 
6:10 £25 Free Bet At BetVictor.com Maiden Stakes (Div I) Cl5 1m
99.9% * New Year´s Night 
99.8% Santa Teresa 
99.2% Bryant Park 
98.4% Eton Dorney 
97.2% Famous Tales 
96.6% Emerald Swell 
96.0% Lostintheclouds  96.0% (1)
Dubai Star 
Duke Of Dunton 
Priors Brook 
Nightlight 
Otterbridge 
6:40 £25 Free Bet At BetVictor.com Maiden Stakes (Div II) Cl5 1m
101.0% * Cape Summit  71 99.2% (4)
98.8% Moonfaarid  98.8% (1)
98.6% Fine Tune 
98.4% The Steward  98.4% (1)
98.4% Mississippi Queen 
96.7% Keeper´s Ring  96.7% (1)
95.8% Sweet Charlie 
94.4% Majnon Fajer  96.6% (1)
Approaching 
Satchville Flyer 
Wowee 
Dubai Skyline 
7:10 Download The BetVictor App Now Handicap Cl5 1m
100.3% * Scarlet Plum 
100.0% Madame Mirasol 
99.8% Surety  99.8% (1)
99.5% Dream Impossible 
99.5% Like A Prayer  62 99.5% (2)
99.4% Ghosting 
99.2% Holiday Magic  99.2% (1)
99.0% Frederic  99.0% (1)
99.0% Djinni 
98.8% Kubeba  98.7% (2)
97.6% Lady Marl 
7:40 Download The BetVictor Instabet App Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m4f
102.3% * Artful Rogue 
101.7% * Rembrandt Van Rijn 
101.5% Gale Force  101.5% (1)
100.3% Golden Bird  100.3% (1)
97.8% Black Label 
96.7% Tiger Stone 
92.7% Mad About Harry 
Perdu 
Instant Karma 
Red Inferno 
Astrocat 
8:10 Follow @BetVictorRacing On Twitter Handicap Cl6 2m
99.8% * Newtown Cross  53 98.7% (4)
99.7% Sawwala 
99.6% Superciliary  56 98.0% (3)
99.5% Vexillum  99.9% (1)
98.7% Dr Finley  59 99.2% (9)
98.0% Oakbank  47
97.9% Lucky Diva  53
97.4% Archiebeau 
97.2% Bogey Hole 
96.9% Boston Blue  56 98.5% (9)
96.7% Graylyn Ruby  57 99.6% (5)
Spanish Fork 
Flashy Star 
Paple Blessing 
8:40 BetVictor.com Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl4 1m3f
102.3% Little Buxted  101.0% (1)
101.6% * Syncopate 
101.5% Manomine  99.6% (2)
100.3% Almerzem 
100.2% Hector´s Chance  63 100.6% (4)
100.0% Elbereth  100.0% (1)
99.7% Guising 
99.1% Itsnowcato 
98.8% Kastini 
98.1% Castle Combe  75 100.6% (1)
97.8% Thecornishcowboy  101.1% (4)
9:10 Barn Dance Christmas Parties At Kempton Handicap Cl6 6f
101.3% * Blue Bounty 
100.7% Maymyo  57 100.7% (1)
100.1% Stapleford Lad  53 100.1% (1)
99.4% Honey Meadow  65 98.8% (3)
99.0% Dylan´s Centenary  99.0% (1)
96.7% Sir Percy Blakeney 
96.1% Ignight  96.1% (1)
95.5% Wedgewood Estates  56 97.5% (3)
95.0% Three Pips  67 95.0% (1)
94.5% Pieman´s Girl 
Findhorn Magic 





Tuesday, September 16, 2014

The richest all-weather raceday in Europe and the Channel 4 U-Turn

After having received widespread praise for the inaugural staging of the All-Weather Championships Finals Day at Lingfield Park, racing's sole terrestrial television station has now picked up the gauntlet.to broadcast the 2015 All-Weather Championships Finals Day on Good Friday.

This decision is very much at odds with their stance last year stating that Good Friday is a family day and that they had no interest in broadcasting Horse Racing on a Good Friday.

Jamie Aitchison, Channel 4 commissioning editor for sport, said: "After the success of last year's launch, we are delighted to bring the 2015 All-Weather Championships Finals Day for the first time to terrestrial viewers.

With £1 million in prize-money across the card up for grabs, the richest all-weather race day in Europe will be held on April 3. The build-up to All-Weather Championships Final Day starts in October and consists of over 200 fixtures at Kempton, Lingfield, Southwell and Wolverhampton.

With no news yet from Chelmsford City (formerly Great Leighs) as to whether they have won over the BHA for 2015 fixtures, and with the Newcastle turf being ripped up in favour of an All Weather surface, I am sure it wont be long before Trainers north of Wolverhampton will be making the request to get in on the act.  

Tony Kelly, managing director for Arena Racing Company, which owns Lingfield said: "After only their first year the All-Weather Championships are already making a positive impact on raising the profile and prestige of all-weather racing in Great Britain and The ARC team is absolutely delighted Channel 4 will be showing the All-Weather Championships £1 million Finals Day next year. "We are eager to get started on 'Year Two' and look forward to both Channel 4 and At The Races continuing to do a fantastic job of showcasing racing across ARC's racecourses as we seek to promote and grow British racing in the years ahead."

How attractive a proposition was Pipssalio. Still a Maiden after 4 outings, its 3 outings as a 2yo read beaten 16 lengths in Class 5 3k Novice, beaten 16 lengths in a Class 6 2k Maiden, Beaten 14 lengths in a Class 4 3k Maiden. 1 outing as a 3yo beaten ½ length in a Class 4 4k Handicap. Looked to be way out of its depth being entered in a Class 3 14k Handicap. Pipssalio was 10lb out of the handicap and the jockey (Francis Norton) was putting up 2lb over weight.

My speed figures told me a different story. In fact I can remember being so bullish I was nailing my colours to the mast on all the forums and to the Raceform. This for me was the outstanding bet of the following day, the outstanding bet of the week and of the month. I went to bed unable to sleep with anticipation for the following day fully confident I would be making a lot of money. As soon as I got up on the day of the race I started checking the prices to ensure the tissue given the evening before was correct. Pipssalio was still 20-1.

The time of the race had arrived and in horror I watched as Pipssalio fell out of the stalls. By the time they had reached half-way in the 1 mile contest it was flat to the boards well adrift of the rest of the field with Franny Norton rowing away and beating the horse to death!

My feelings at the time were partly embarrassment due to the comments I had made on various forums , partly anger and all confidence in my ability to create meaningful speed figures gone in 60 seconds but being the eternal optimist still a slither of hope.

With 2 furlongs to go Pipssalio started to reduce the gap. With a furlong to go the rest of the field started to paddle and Pipssalio appeared to have sprouted wings and was closing on the leaders at an unbelievable rate. As they flashed passed the post Franny Norton had driven Pipssalio between the two leaders to make a three way photo finish. Even though I believed Pipssalio had got there it was going to be on the nod. Pipssalio got the verdict beating 2nd Everest by a short-head who in turn had beaten 3rd Tumbleweed Tor by a short-head.

That is the margin between winning or losing. The difference between the feeling of abject failure and believing you can walk on water.