THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 22ND OCTOBER KEMPTON PARK - 23RD OCTOBER KEMPTON PARK - 24TH OCTOBER WOLVERHAMPTON & DUNDALK - 25TH OCTOBER WOLVERHAMPTON - 28TH OCTOBER WOLVERHAMPTON - 29TH OCTOBER KEMPTON PARK - 3OTH OCTOBER LINGFIELD PARK & KEMPTON PARK - 31ST OCTOBER WOLVERHAMPTON & DUNDALK -

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 25th October 2014

25th October 2014 Wolverhampton
                   
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
                   
5:45 Get Live Score Updates @ Footballscores.com Nursery Handicap (Tapeta) Cl6 5f20y
98.1% * Sparbrook  59            
97.8%   Most Tempting  55          
97.5%   Sky Steps               
97.3%   Jimmy´s Girl  57 95.6% (1)      
96.8%   Don Ricardo               
96.7%   Kylies Wild Card               
96.5%   Air Of York             
95.2%   Junior Ben    96.3% (1)      
94.7%   Macarthurs Park    94.4% (1)      
94.5%   Featsdontfailmenow               
    Penalty Scorer               
    Lydiate Lady               
    Toni´s A Star               
                   

More big priced winners and more selections.

In a magnificent week with double digit winners at 50-1, 22-1, 20-1, and last night rowing in with an 11-1 winner to add to the haul, the number one question from subscribers this week relates to the increase in the number of races carrying multiple selections for the ‘On The Money’ method.

Last night was no exception with one race carrying 2 selections (7:20) and one race (8:50) carrying three selections. It was the 8:50 which provided us with Innoko @ 11-1 with another of the selections Bridge That Gap (8-1) finishing 2nd. The race is an excellent example of why there has been a slight shift in the selection process.

Of all the four methods of selection the margins for ‘On The Money’ are the finest. What has been noticeable over the years (since 2008) is that all too frequently we are missing out on winners, in most cases big priced winners, by very narrow margins in selecting only the top qualifying horse.

With a qualifying score of 20% (what this relates to is irrelevant but has been carefully crafted ;) ) pictured here is how the 8:50 broke down:

Qualifiers in order were Bridge That Gap 24.5%, Lola Montez 21.7% and Innoko 21.4% and as tight as the finish was between Bridge The Gap (8-1) and Innoko (11-1) we would have been left extremely disappointed under the old rules! 

In what might have been a miserable day, hitting the post with Kelamita (10-1), Humour (11-8) and in my opinion the horse that should have won the 8:20 Classic Villager (3-1) who appeared to lug in behind the winner Jamie Osborne’s Life Less Ordinary until you see the head on which shows the latter continually edging in to Classic Villager for the whole of the final furlong stopping it from going past, Innoko was the difference. Having stood still and using the old method of selection we would have been looking at hitting the post again with Bridge The Gap (8-1).


On a poor day the selection of Innoko turned what could have a 9 point loss into 3 points gained at SP’s. A five year history would suggest that these big priced winners are not a blip, more an example of what the method is going to keep providing for us, more big priced winners and more selections. This will comprise strike rate With 5 races having ‘On The Money’ selections tonight I am hopeful of a very good evening ;)     

    

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 24th October 2014

24th October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Monsterbet Classified Stakes (Tapeta) Cl6 5f216y
100.0% Wedgewood Estates  54
99.7% * Encapsulated 
99.1% Thewestwalian 
98.8% Princess Rose  70
98.6% Daneglow  49
98.2% Aphrilis  98.2% (1)
98.0% Clear Focus 
97.7% Brean Splash Susie 
96.8% High Tone  49 99.8% (1)
96.5% Redalani 
94.4% Kingsway Lad 
Fujin 
Secret Applause 

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 24th October 2014

24th October 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:35 Floodlit Friday Nights At Dundalk Maiden 6f
100.4% * Adeste Fideles 
99.9% Taaluf 
99.6% Aru Cha Cha  65 99.4% (1)
96.6% Dylan Express  97.7% (2)
96.3% Hughs Flyer 
94.3% Intensified 
Roryslittlesister 
Broderick Falls 
Ko Samet 
Danz Gift 
Forebear 
Let Go Ego 
Chester Storm 
Sea Red 
Gaoth Tire 
Sirikoi 

A perfect 100% four out of four on an All Weather surface

Sandwiched between yesterday’s two winning selections at Kempton Park: 8:10 Ridgeway Storm (opened 6-4) who cantered to victory, and 9:10 Fiftyshadesofgrey (opened 7-1) who gained revenge for the narrow defeat the evening before, we witnessed Daaree bringing up a hat-trick of wins. That in itself is not so remarkable nowadays, but in my opinion the performance was remarkable.

Saeed bin Suroor is in excellent form with his All Weather runners at present and the performance of Daaree may see that run extending in to the new year. What captivated me with last night’s performance was the manner in which the horse appear to be doing just enough to maintain its healthy advantage.

Either the fast finisher, and there were several, were coming to the end of their limits, or Daaree had pulled out that little more under Paul Hannagan. My feeling is that the latter is the case. A horse we have had on our side in its two previous wins was overlooked this time as we gave the race a swerve, but surprisingly the horse still went off at 2-1 and put in the performance and time of the meeting.

Not only did Daaree notch up a hat-trick last night but remained unbeaten with a perfect 100% four out of four on an All Weathersurface. The speed figures of these wins make the horse a model of consistency which endorsement my opinion there is more in the locker. Ignore this horse at your peril!


Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 23rd October 2014

23rd October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Watch Racing UK Anywhere iPad App Nursery Handicap Cl6 1m
99.5% Jet Mate  98.7% (2)
99.4% * Just Marion 
98.8% Cascading Stars 
97.3% Horsetracker 
96.8% Lonely Ranger 
96.6% Skylight 
96.3% Prince Of Paris  96.3% (1)
96.2% Honey Required 
94.2% Emperors Warrior  94.2% (1)
94.0% Saint Honore 
Arthur´s Way 
Keen Move 
Inke 
Le Torrent 

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 22nd October 2014

22nd October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:55 Betbright.com Download Our App Handicap Cl6 1m2f
100.2% * Mercury Magic 
99.9% Silken Waters  53
99.9% Hidden Asset  50
99.8% Mr Lando  63 101.2% (3)
99.7% Teide Peak  58 99.5% (1)
98.0% Lexington Blue 
98.0% Claude Greenwood 
97.9% Warbond  99.2% (1)
97.8% Purple Spot 
97.7% Highly Likely  55 96.5% (1)
97.5% Kingswinford  68
97.1% Berrahri 
97.1% Osorios Trial 
96.7% Nouvelle Ere 

Two 20-1 winners in 10 minutes!

The first triple meeting AWT day of the season and subscribers should have come away with very large smiles on their faces. Although the number of selections was best described as ‘unprecedented’ and far removed from the norm, winners at SP’s of 22-1, 20-1 and 5-2 made for a very profitable afternoon.

It was a day where we traded strike rate for profit, and the afternoon results, I feel, vindicated this decision. Never the less, I am acutely aware of the discomfort that is commonly felt with such a sacrifices.

A very eventful start to proceedings saw the most emphatic of victories from Lyfka who made amends for our losses 10 days ago. On that occasion she had lost all momentum, trapped on the rail and was forced to swerve violently around horses to deliver her challenge but still finishing a creditable second under Luke Morris. This time there was no mistake under Martin Lane as the selection strolled to a 9 length victory.

Prior to Lyfka’s race, over at Lingfield Park we witnessed carnage in the 2:30 when Velocitor, who had the whole field on the stretch turning for home, almost ran off the track taking the 10-11 favourite Percues with it. Unlike the favourite, Velocitor picked up enough momentum to still finish in the frame and should be one for the notebook.

We then had our golden 10 minutes. Most would be grateful for one 20-1 winner in a week. To get a 20-1 winner a day would be magnificent. We were about to get two 20-1 winners in 10 minutes!

First up another horse that we are familiar with after also being a selection LTO. My reading of the situation was that Anna Hesketh was being given another chance to get it right on Methaaly after doing too much, too soon 4 days ago. This time she got it spot on. 11yo Methaaly was left bowling along at its own pace while being edged steadily to three wide from its wide draw. As the field turned in to the straight Methaaly had simply coasted in to the lead. Whether this is Anna’s usual languid style, I'm unsure but little effort was made to keep the selections head in front at the line, scoring by an uncomfortable head at SP 22-1 from the late finishing Mambo Spirit.

10 minutes later we were collecting again as 20-1 Royal Acquisition took the 4:00 at Lingfield Park. The manner of the ride by Adam Beschizza would suggest that there was more money than just ours riding on the result.  Royal Acquisition sat in mid division before coming under a Luke Morris type drive for the final 2 furlongs with Beschizza's arms and legs flailing all the way to the line for a comfortable 1 length victory.

Like a game of football, it was a game of two halves. After Wolverhampton and Lingfield Park provided the profit in the afternoon. We found ourselves in a position where the evening selections at Kempton Park were running for fun to boost the day’s profit.

In stark contrast Kempton Park offered little excitement with only two seconds recorded. After completing the day’s returns, what became apparent is that although only a hop, skip and jump apart, and I can only assume suffer (or enjoy) similar weather conditions, Lingfield Park returned times slightly faster than my standards, whereas Kempton Park returns were extremely slow.

The fact that we are back at Kempton Park this evening should act as a note of caution. If deep harrowing has taken place between the last meeting and yesterday, I would be expecting a rather steady return to the normal conditions. Tonight might see a degree of improvement, but by what degree we are yet to find out!  


Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 21st October 2014

21st October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:30 £25 Free Bet At titanbet.co.uk Maiden Fillies´ Stakes (Bobis Race) Cl5 6f
99.3% * Dusty Blue  99.3% (1)
96.3% Sharissima  96.3% (1)
Always Smile 
Bahama Blue 
Beta Tauri 
Equilicious 
Hey You 
Lucy The Painter 
Marilyn Mon 

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 21st October 2014

21st October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:20 British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Tapeta) Cl5 5f216y
100.0% * Bonfire Heart  99.2% (2)
98.2% Darma 
96.6% Longside 
Bapak Asmara 
Secret Glance 
Star Of The Stage 
Twinkle Twinkle 

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 21st October 2014

21st October 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:00 £20 Free Bet At winner.co.uk Maiden Auction Stakes Cl6 7f1y
99.4% * Eatsleepracerepeat 
98.1% Edge Of Heaven  98.4% (1)
96.3% Celtic Ava 
93.4% Artesana  93.4% (1)
Mistamel 
Compton Mill 
To The Victor 
Dynamite Inventor 
Space Sheriff 
Easy Tiger 

Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Hello The Actuary

I must admit it's the first time I've seen this thread & personally I don't get involved too much in all-weather racing but I must commend you on the tremendous effort you put in & clearly you have a great knowledge & understanding of all-weather racing. I am certain that loads off gg.com members are finding this to be incredibly useful & benefitting from your work and this again illustrates the strengths & qualities of gg.com - all members prepared & willing to put time & effort in with the aim of helping fellow members achieve betting success & improve their knowledge. You have clearly had some very good results with your work & I commend you for that as I am sure all my fellow gg.com members do. You commented on

"it being a very disappointing last week. if it teaches me anything it will be to take nothing for granted" -

Now you said you made a profit in October so there is no need to worry or feel disappointment at a poor last week because that is the way when you study in depth because you can spend hours working on something only for it to all go wrong in a couple of minutes in a football match or matter of seconds in a horse race - I spend hours studying my football selections each week & yet in recent weeks it has been very frustrating with some poor results but that is not down to me doing things wrong but more to do with the random nature of football dictating that ultimately anything can & will happen. Horse races & football matches are random events that however much we assess & how much detailed analysis we do, the ultimate event is completely out of our control & as you quite rightly said you can take nothing for granted - horses that look certain to win easy run poorly, teams that look certain to win 3 or 4-0 lose 1-0 - that is the nature of sport & that is the nature of betting.As I said, I think the work you are doing is very informative & useful to gg.com members, so on behalf of my fellow members, here is a gg.com salute for you to show our appreciation.

THE ACTUARY - WE SALUTE YOU!!!

All the best with your all-weather bets & if I am considering having a bet on the all-weather I will definitely look for your work first to help me make my mind up.

Tommy
Horse Racing - Trip Down Memory Lane

As there is no AWT racing until Monday 13th I decided to do some research and while thumbing through some old racing books found an old page from Raceform which bought back a great memory from my past carefully folded within the pages.

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 25th October 2014

25th October 2014 Wolverhampton
                   
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
                   
5:45 Get Live Score Updates @ Footballscores.com Nursery Handicap (Tapeta) Cl6 5f20y
98.1% * Sparbrook  59            
97.8%   Most Tempting  55          
97.5%   Sky Steps               
97.3%   Jimmy´s Girl  57 95.6% (1)      
96.8%   Don Ricardo               
96.7%   Kylies Wild Card               
96.5%   Air Of York             
95.2%   Junior Ben    96.3% (1)      
94.7%   Macarthurs Park    94.4% (1)      
94.5%   Featsdontfailmenow               
    Penalty Scorer               
    Lydiate Lady               
    Toni´s A Star               
                   

More big priced winners and more selections.

In a magnificent week with double digit winners at 50-1, 22-1, 20-1, and last night rowing in with an 11-1 winner to add to the haul, the number one question from subscribers this week relates to the increase in the number of races carrying multiple selections for the ‘On The Money’ method.

Last night was no exception with one race carrying 2 selections (7:20) and one race (8:50) carrying three selections. It was the 8:50 which provided us with Innoko @ 11-1 with another of the selections Bridge That Gap (8-1) finishing 2nd. The race is an excellent example of why there has been a slight shift in the selection process.

Of all the four methods of selection the margins for ‘On The Money’ are the finest. What has been noticeable over the years (since 2008) is that all too frequently we are missing out on winners, in most cases big priced winners, by very narrow margins in selecting only the top qualifying horse.

With a qualifying score of 20% (what this relates to is irrelevant but has been carefully crafted ;) ) pictured here is how the 8:50 broke down:

Qualifiers in order were Bridge That Gap 24.5%, Lola Montez 21.7% and Innoko 21.4% and as tight as the finish was between Bridge The Gap (8-1) and Innoko (11-1) we would have been left extremely disappointed under the old rules! 

In what might have been a miserable day, hitting the post with Kelamita (10-1), Humour (11-8) and in my opinion the horse that should have won the 8:20 Classic Villager (3-1) who appeared to lug in behind the winner Jamie Osborne’s Life Less Ordinary until you see the head on which shows the latter continually edging in to Classic Villager for the whole of the final furlong stopping it from going past, Innoko was the difference. Having stood still and using the old method of selection we would have been looking at hitting the post again with Bridge The Gap (8-1).


On a poor day the selection of Innoko turned what could have a 9 point loss into 3 points gained at SP’s. A five year history would suggest that these big priced winners are not a blip, more an example of what the method is going to keep providing for us, more big priced winners and more selections. This will comprise strike rate With 5 races having ‘On The Money’ selections tonight I am hopeful of a very good evening ;)     

    

Friday, October 24, 2014

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 24th October 2014

24th October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Monsterbet Classified Stakes (Tapeta) Cl6 5f216y
100.0% Wedgewood Estates  54
99.7% * Encapsulated 
99.1% Thewestwalian 
98.8% Princess Rose  70
98.6% Daneglow  49
98.2% Aphrilis  98.2% (1)
98.0% Clear Focus 
97.7% Brean Splash Susie 
96.8% High Tone  49 99.8% (1)
96.5% Redalani 
94.4% Kingsway Lad 
Fujin 
Secret Applause 

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 24th October 2014

24th October 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:35 Floodlit Friday Nights At Dundalk Maiden 6f
100.4% * Adeste Fideles 
99.9% Taaluf 
99.6% Aru Cha Cha  65 99.4% (1)
96.6% Dylan Express  97.7% (2)
96.3% Hughs Flyer 
94.3% Intensified 
Roryslittlesister 
Broderick Falls 
Ko Samet 
Danz Gift 
Forebear 
Let Go Ego 
Chester Storm 
Sea Red 
Gaoth Tire 
Sirikoi 

A perfect 100% four out of four on an All Weather surface

Sandwiched between yesterday’s two winning selections at Kempton Park: 8:10 Ridgeway Storm (opened 6-4) who cantered to victory, and 9:10 Fiftyshadesofgrey (opened 7-1) who gained revenge for the narrow defeat the evening before, we witnessed Daaree bringing up a hat-trick of wins. That in itself is not so remarkable nowadays, but in my opinion the performance was remarkable.

Saeed bin Suroor is in excellent form with his All Weather runners at present and the performance of Daaree may see that run extending in to the new year. What captivated me with last night’s performance was the manner in which the horse appear to be doing just enough to maintain its healthy advantage.

Either the fast finisher, and there were several, were coming to the end of their limits, or Daaree had pulled out that little more under Paul Hannagan. My feeling is that the latter is the case. A horse we have had on our side in its two previous wins was overlooked this time as we gave the race a swerve, but surprisingly the horse still went off at 2-1 and put in the performance and time of the meeting.

Not only did Daaree notch up a hat-trick last night but remained unbeaten with a perfect 100% four out of four on an All Weathersurface. The speed figures of these wins make the horse a model of consistency which endorsement my opinion there is more in the locker. Ignore this horse at your peril!


Thursday, October 23, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 23rd October 2014

23rd October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Watch Racing UK Anywhere iPad App Nursery Handicap Cl6 1m
99.5% Jet Mate  98.7% (2)
99.4% * Just Marion 
98.8% Cascading Stars 
97.3% Horsetracker 
96.8% Lonely Ranger 
96.6% Skylight 
96.3% Prince Of Paris  96.3% (1)
96.2% Honey Required 
94.2% Emperors Warrior  94.2% (1)
94.0% Saint Honore 
Arthur´s Way 
Keen Move 
Inke 
Le Torrent 

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 22nd October 2014

22nd October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:55 Betbright.com Download Our App Handicap Cl6 1m2f
100.2% * Mercury Magic 
99.9% Silken Waters  53
99.9% Hidden Asset  50
99.8% Mr Lando  63 101.2% (3)
99.7% Teide Peak  58 99.5% (1)
98.0% Lexington Blue 
98.0% Claude Greenwood 
97.9% Warbond  99.2% (1)
97.8% Purple Spot 
97.7% Highly Likely  55 96.5% (1)
97.5% Kingswinford  68
97.1% Berrahri 
97.1% Osorios Trial 
96.7% Nouvelle Ere 

Two 20-1 winners in 10 minutes!

The first triple meeting AWT day of the season and subscribers should have come away with very large smiles on their faces. Although the number of selections was best described as ‘unprecedented’ and far removed from the norm, winners at SP’s of 22-1, 20-1 and 5-2 made for a very profitable afternoon.

It was a day where we traded strike rate for profit, and the afternoon results, I feel, vindicated this decision. Never the less, I am acutely aware of the discomfort that is commonly felt with such a sacrifices.

A very eventful start to proceedings saw the most emphatic of victories from Lyfka who made amends for our losses 10 days ago. On that occasion she had lost all momentum, trapped on the rail and was forced to swerve violently around horses to deliver her challenge but still finishing a creditable second under Luke Morris. This time there was no mistake under Martin Lane as the selection strolled to a 9 length victory.

Prior to Lyfka’s race, over at Lingfield Park we witnessed carnage in the 2:30 when Velocitor, who had the whole field on the stretch turning for home, almost ran off the track taking the 10-11 favourite Percues with it. Unlike the favourite, Velocitor picked up enough momentum to still finish in the frame and should be one for the notebook.

We then had our golden 10 minutes. Most would be grateful for one 20-1 winner in a week. To get a 20-1 winner a day would be magnificent. We were about to get two 20-1 winners in 10 minutes!

First up another horse that we are familiar with after also being a selection LTO. My reading of the situation was that Anna Hesketh was being given another chance to get it right on Methaaly after doing too much, too soon 4 days ago. This time she got it spot on. 11yo Methaaly was left bowling along at its own pace while being edged steadily to three wide from its wide draw. As the field turned in to the straight Methaaly had simply coasted in to the lead. Whether this is Anna’s usual languid style, I'm unsure but little effort was made to keep the selections head in front at the line, scoring by an uncomfortable head at SP 22-1 from the late finishing Mambo Spirit.

10 minutes later we were collecting again as 20-1 Royal Acquisition took the 4:00 at Lingfield Park. The manner of the ride by Adam Beschizza would suggest that there was more money than just ours riding on the result.  Royal Acquisition sat in mid division before coming under a Luke Morris type drive for the final 2 furlongs with Beschizza's arms and legs flailing all the way to the line for a comfortable 1 length victory.

Like a game of football, it was a game of two halves. After Wolverhampton and Lingfield Park provided the profit in the afternoon. We found ourselves in a position where the evening selections at Kempton Park were running for fun to boost the day’s profit.

In stark contrast Kempton Park offered little excitement with only two seconds recorded. After completing the day’s returns, what became apparent is that although only a hop, skip and jump apart, and I can only assume suffer (or enjoy) similar weather conditions, Lingfield Park returned times slightly faster than my standards, whereas Kempton Park returns were extremely slow.

The fact that we are back at Kempton Park this evening should act as a note of caution. If deep harrowing has taken place between the last meeting and yesterday, I would be expecting a rather steady return to the normal conditions. Tonight might see a degree of improvement, but by what degree we are yet to find out!  


Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 21st October 2014

21st October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:30 £25 Free Bet At titanbet.co.uk Maiden Fillies´ Stakes (Bobis Race) Cl5 6f
99.3% * Dusty Blue  99.3% (1)
96.3% Sharissima  96.3% (1)
Always Smile 
Bahama Blue 
Beta Tauri 
Equilicious 
Hey You 
Lucy The Painter 
Marilyn Mon 

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 21st October 2014

21st October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:20 British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (Tapeta) Cl5 5f216y
100.0% * Bonfire Heart  99.2% (2)
98.2% Darma 
96.6% Longside 
Bapak Asmara 
Secret Glance 
Star Of The Stage 
Twinkle Twinkle 

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 21st October 2014

21st October 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:00 £20 Free Bet At winner.co.uk Maiden Auction Stakes Cl6 7f1y
99.4% * Eatsleepracerepeat 
98.1% Edge Of Heaven  98.4% (1)
96.3% Celtic Ava 
93.4% Artesana  93.4% (1)
Mistamel 
Compton Mill 
To The Victor 
Dynamite Inventor 
Space Sheriff 
Easy Tiger 

How attractive a proposition was Pipssalio. Still a Maiden after 4 outings, its 3 outings as a 2yo read beaten 16 lengths in Class 5 3k Novice, beaten 16 lengths in a Class 6 2k Maiden, Beaten 14 lengths in a Class 4 3k Maiden. 1 outing as a 3yo beaten ½ length in a Class 4 4k Handicap. Looked to be way out of its depth being entered in a Class 3 14k Handicap. Pipssalio was 10lb out of the handicap and the jockey (Francis Norton) was putting up 2lb over weight.

My speed figures told me a different story. In fact I can remember being so bullish I was nailing my colours to the mast on all the forums and to the Raceform. This for me was the outstanding bet of the following day, the outstanding bet of the week and of the month. I went to bed unable to sleep with anticipation for the following day fully confident I would be making a lot of money. As soon as I got up on the day of the race I started checking the prices to ensure the tissue given the evening before was correct. Pipssalio was still 20-1.

The time of the race had arrived and in horror I watched as Pipssalio fell out of the stalls. By the time they had reached half-way in the 1 mile contest it was flat to the boards well adrift of the rest of the field with Franny Norton rowing away and beating the horse to death!

My feelings at the time were partly embarrassment due to the comments I had made on various forums , partly anger and all confidence in my ability to create meaningful speed figures gone in 60 seconds but being the eternal optimist still a slither of hope.

With 2 furlongs to go Pipssalio started to reduce the gap. With a furlong to go the rest of the field started to paddle and Pipssalio appeared to have sprouted wings and was closing on the leaders at an unbelievable rate. As they flashed passed the post Franny Norton had driven Pipssalio between the two leaders to make a three way photo finish. Even though I believed Pipssalio had got there it was going to be on the nod. Pipssalio got the verdict beating 2nd Everest by a short-head who in turn had beaten 3rd Tumbleweed Tor by a short-head.

That is the margin between winning or losing. The difference between the feeling of abject failure and believing you can walk on water.