+£2,156.26 Profit in 3 weeks, 41.9% Strike rate, £30 per month is giving it away!

Yesterday completed The Actuary Horse Racing Tips Subscribers third week of 2014 and I have opted to analyse the week alongside the overall picture to hopefully make it a little more palatable.

With a strike rate coming in to ‘Week 3’ of 36.4% (40% Week 1) (33.3% Week 2) there is no doubt that we have had a phenomenal week. Not only in terms of recording a 51.6% strike rate from 31 selections, taking our aggregate over the 3 weeks to 41.9%, but in terms of recording 87.1% of selections being placed which will be covered at the end of this report.

Bookmakers: Week 3 provided a +£661.77 points profit to £10 stakes taking the total so far for 2014 to +£1,018.73. A major part of this contribution was 20-1 winner True Spirit but even if removed from the weeks total, the remaining +£461.77 outperformed Week 1 (+£195.65) and Week 2 (+£161.30). Taking SP would have reduced the profit of +£661.77 down to +£439.00. A reduction of around 34% for the week which is mirrored in the overall picture which would have reduced our actual points profit down from +139.88 to +90.76 (35.1%) 

Betfair Win: Week 3 provided a £553.19 and I have acted early in increasing the uplift on Bookmakers opening shows to 15% on the weekend. This was done on the basis that I am finding that the vast majority of unmatched bets are those that retract from the get go and the opening show was never likely to be achieved. The 55.62 points matched on Betfair fell well short of the 66.53 achieved with the Bookmakers and again this was largely due to the one bet, 20-1 winner True Spirit being matched at SP of 10.5 accounted for 9.5 of the 10.91 shortfall. We are now looking at a total gap of £175.79 between the Bookmaker profit (+£1,018.73) and Betfair Win profit (+£842.94). 

n.b. To answer several queries I have had on recording a higher 'Odds Achieved' than those 'Ordered' this is due to the odds on offer being higher than those I am setting out to achieve at the time of placing my bet.

Betfair Place: The motivation behind introducing the ‘Place’ bets has yet to be played out and is in place primarily to slow down loses during bad periods where horses are placing and not winning. Obviously we need to ensure that in affectively doubling our stakes we are not inflicting greater damages. In layman’s terms we will need to maintain an above 50% strike rate on horses winning and placing. Well we are definitely achieving that! With 81% making the frame this week this had provided a further +£232.37 in profit and an overall strike rate of 66.3%.

WEEK 3 SUMMARY (£10 STAKES):

BOOKMAKERS   +£661.77

BETFAIR WIN:    +£553.19

BETFAIR PLACE: +£232.37

TOTAL:                  +£1,447.33

2014 SUMMARY (£10 STAKES):

BOOKMAKERS   +£1018.73

BETFAIR WIN:    +£842.94

BETFAIR PLACE: +£294.60

TOTAL:                  +£2,156.26

Have a good Lingfield and Kempton today :)

http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2014/01/215626-profit-in-3-weeks-419-strike.html