THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 26th March KEMPTON PARK- 27th March WOLVERHAMPTON- 29th March WOLVERHAMPTON - 30th March LINGFIELD PARK, KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 31st March WOLVERHAMPTON & CHELMSFORD CITY - 1ST aPRIL LINGFIELD PARK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 2nd April KEMPTON PARK -

+104 points profit for The Actuary Subscribers in September

Not the best of prices but a 100% one out of one was a fitting end to a fantastic September for subscribers with LITTLE CHOOSEY, who opened at 9-4 taking the Wolverhampton opener. I have to admit turning my back on the meeting after the race in favour of other pursuits and watched the re-runs this morning.

Last night's meeting heralded the end of All Weather action for September and we found ourselves around +104 points to the good for our efforts. September also put us well on course to smash the profit made in 2012 with a shopping list of winners that included:

HOODNA 25-1
PRECISION STRIKE 14-1
BIG WHISKEY 14-1 (R4)
BAYTOWN KESTREL 12-1 (R4)
3 points PRINCE BISHOP 8-1
BLUEGRASS BLUES 6-1 (FPTP)
PROSPERA 6-1
SPECKLED 5-1
GETAWAY CAR 5-1
2 points EXCELLENT PUCK 7-2
2 points HALLINGS TRASURE 10-3
2 points LIMEGROVE 3-1
TRUCANINI 3-1
DRAGON CITY 3-1
CONDUCTING 5-2
POITIN 9-4
LITTLE CHOOSEY 9-4
ART WAVE 9-4
3 points CAT O'MOUNTAIN 2-1
ARCHIBALD THORBURN 7-4
2 points MARMALADY 4-5  

Not that I am displeased with the month but recounting those near misses, it could have been so much more! Most notably Hanzada 12-1 just headed in the last strides, and the one that still brings tears to my eyes, 3 point selection Honey of a Kitten 16-1 suffering the identical fate.

A two day break before we crack on with October where we have no fewer than 26 meetings!


Good luck :)  


Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Saturday 28th September 2013


28th September 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:30 bet365.com Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 5f216y
98.3%*Princess Sheila 97.9%(1)
98.1%Iffley Fields 
97.7%Daneglow 
97.3%Sunny Hollow 97.4%(1)
96.9%Little Choosey 
Wotalad 
Diva Delight 

Wolverhampton might be slow but I wouldn't trust Southwell form here!

It was one up, one down for subscribers on last night's Wolverhampton card and the one up was from the tightest of finishes as Hagree stayed with our selection ARCHIBALD THORBURN (7-4) all the way to line with only a short head separating them. The pair pulling 4 lengths clear of the remainder.

I am not disappointed to have only the one subscriber selection going for us today as each meeting at Wolverhampton gives us a better understanding of the form lines coming into and out of the meetings. ATR did a little piece in their evening coverage where the statement was made that jockeys believe the course is riding like Southwell! I have done a little research on this and from the small snap-shot we have at present I would suggest this is less than conclusive.

 Times returned halved, between standard and how slow the course rode on Thursday as they did last week. Assuming Fergus Cameron adopts the same attitude I would expect times to be revert back to Thursday slow conditions with a deep harrow before racing today.

If there was anything to gleam from results since the surface work, it would be the prevalence of good 'Sire' stats. As I learnt from my dabbling yesterday, it is probably wiser not to pick one over another having had a little tickle on On The Cusp only for the identically rated Dancing Cosmos to win at 25-1 :(


Good luck today with all your selections 

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Friday 27th September 2013

27th September 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:40 32Red Casino Handicap (Div I) Cl6 1m141y
100.2%Katmai River 99.8%(5)
100.0%King Of Wing 100.0%(1)
100.0%*Goal 99.8%(7)
100.0%Nezami 
99.3%Pippy 96.2%(1)
99.0%Sovereign Power 
97.4%Bitaphon 
97.4%Medecis Mountain 97.4%(1)
96.7%Valley Dreamer 
95.7%On The Cusp 98.9%(3)
94.3%Tanforan 97.6%(4)
Dancing Cosmos 
Poppy Bond 

No enthusiasm about Wolverhampton tonight!

As anticipated Wolverhampton didn't let us down with times recorded well below standard. Only the two subscriber selections on the card became one due to withdraw and I have no doubt the slow surface was the demise of the remaining selection HIDDEN BELIEF (advised at 4-1) who could only muster enough effort to finish second to Burning Dawn.

If there was a performance to take from the card, it was that of Burning Dawn who ran the fastest time of the evening to beat our selection. As to whether any of this form is transferable is debatable but the step up in trip from 7f to 9f definitely bought the best out as the breeding suggested it might.


After such a fantastic week it would take a lot to dampen spirits but the surface running this slow it definitely damps my enthusiasm in getting heavily involved outside of the two subscriber selection and I am happier to keep my powder dry for another day.   

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Thursday 26th September 2013

26th September 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:45 32RedPoker.com Maiden Auction Stakes Cl6 5f216y
98.1%Clapperboard 98.1%(1)
97.2%Pelagian 
96.2%Lawman´s Lady 
95.9%*Spider Lily 
Copper Cavalier 
Monte Viso 
The Doyle Machine 
Kiss From A Rose 
Caroline´s Beach 

Wolverhampton: Testing, Testing, 1, 2, 3 :)

A much smaller profit on last night's Kempton Park card after being spoilt with Monday and Tuesdays big priced winners. This time we were at the other end of the price scale with our 3 point selection CAT O'MOUNTAIN (advised at 2-1) who defied the racing medias consensus of opinion in being a lay in emphatic style under Mr Barzalona.

Unfortunately ROYAL DUTCH could only make the frame at 10-1 in the 7:30 and there was no surprise that the unknown quantity that was Uphold took the spoils at 12-1.

As we head into the abyss of not one, or two, but three Wolverhampton meetings over Thursday, Friday and Saturday I have learned not to expect an improving situation and gradual quickening of the surface as I have previously done. I think we can safely say that conditions will be on the slow side. But how slow, we will not know until the first couple of races in each meeting.

So who are the contenders that have previously thrived in testing conditions?

Below is a list of horses that have previously put in a better than average performance in testing conditions on an All Weather surface, on or around the trip in order of merit for you:

6:15 - Loyal N Trusted, Night Trade, Run It Twice
7:45 - Mrs Bannock, Flamborough Breeze, Hidden Belief,  Elnadwa, Burning Dawn
9:15 - Pearla, Sea The Flames, Overrule 

This is a watching brief that may give us an angle for the following meetings dependant on their performances.


Good Luck to you all

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Ratings - Wednesday 25th September 2013

25th September 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:25 Reindeer Racing On 06.12.13 Maiden Stakes Cl5 5f
96.1%*Bazooka 
94.9%Back On Baileys 
94.4%Clumber Street 
Birikyno 
Decimus Maximus 
Dutch Interior 
Groundworker 
Rock N Rouge 
Saxony 
Spirit Of Alsace 
Sutton Sioux 
Tanojin 

14-1 & 12-1 winners tarnished by the dreaded Rule 4

Ok, so we all thought that we wouldn't surpass Mondays 25-1, especially not on the following day but we did, to a fashion. First up BAYTOWN KESTREL (advised at 12-1) went pillar to post to take the Lingfield Park opener which we went in to double handed with TRINITY RIVER (advised at 14-1) just beaten by a short-head into third place. For good measure BIG WHISKEY (advised at 14-1) landed the 4:00 under Jenifer Ferguson. Unfortunately we suffered massive rule 4's on both selections and were paid out at 9.8-1 and 9-1, but I guess were still way ahead of the game considering that they returned at 5-1 and 7-2 respectively. With our later 2 point selection withdrawn it ended another perfect day.

Even the baron spell for write up selections ended with WELEASE BWIAN taking the 2:30. If you can be disappointed on such a day, that honour goes to Ginger Fizz who is better dictating than coming off a dawdling pace as was the case yesterday.

Subscribers go in to today's evening meeting at Kempton Park with four races of interest with one race carrying the rarity of a 3 point selection. Outside of those races I thought I would look at the 7:30 Class 4:

Top weight Muharrer is yet to race on the surface but has done little to warrant that place with its only win being on its debut over 10f and four 2nd when it was found wanting. Uphold has run well here on its 2 previous C&D runs and I would expect it to be in the mix but the concern is the opposition is a little hotter than on those occasions and 9 runs in France obscure what if any improvement there has been. Bilidn has not been seen on a racecourse since November 2012 and find itself of a mark +30 than when being beaten 8.1/2 lengths competing over today's C&D. It did go on from that to land a five timer, all wins over further than today's 12f. Nave has three C&D runs to its name and the times returned would suggest it being competitive in this company. Sir Boss last won at 25-1 here at Kempton over 11f but is now on a mark that makes a win unlikely. Meetings Man, Uriah Heep, Scottish Star, Modernism and Qanan have not previously tackled C&D with the first three of the five recording the best times LTO. Of these Uriah Heep looks the most interesting after finishing 3rd to Jazz Master and Scottish Star over 11f. Uriah Heep finished as if the step up would suit, closing down on Scottish Star all the way to the line. Albeit Scottish Star was being eased but the addition furlong I feel will play more to Uriah Heep strengths than Scottish Star. With 5 C&D runs to its name King Olav looks outclassed on that form. ROYAL DUTCH was given a curious ride last time out over C&D 21 days ago. In a dawdling race Pat Cosgrove pulled the horse back from a prominent position to the rear of the field and then continued to ensure the horse had nowhere to go until too late. Now on a mark 3lb lower it would appear that the mischief was managed! The question is, 'is tonight the aim or a further reduction and a 0-70?'  

Good Luck to you all!

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Tuesday 24th September 2013

24th September 2013 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

2:00 At The Races Nursery Handicap Cl5 5f
99.9%Basil Berry 
99.7%*Baytown Kestrel 97.3%(1)
99.6%Trinity River 
98.6%Weisse Socken 
98.4%Fine Art Fair 98.4%(1)
98.4%Orlando Star 
97.3%M´Selle 96.3%(2)
97.2%Skinny Love 
Ice Slice 
Lady In Blue 

25-1 Actuary Subscribers selection fills the already overflowing September War Chest!

I am sorry for the sycophantic gloating but 25-1 winners are hard to find and when HOODNA went in yesterday for subscribers it gives me high that stays with me for a couple of days :) The result was even more meaningful to me in terms of my commitment to surpass last year's +395 profit. An aspiration I felt that was lost after August 2013 only delivering +37.73 in comparison to the +73.38 achieved in August 2012. 

Although September, prior to this result had put us back on track, HOODNA has put clear ground between 2013 and 2012. I can only trust that subscribers are enjoying the ride as much as I am :)

We have several big priced selections going to post today but outside of those there are two horses that catch my eye.

In Lingfield Parks 2:30 WELEASE BWIAN is going to take some stopping on these terms in this company. More of a grinder than a flashy burst of speed horse WELEASE BWIAN has put up four good performances over 5f at Lingfield Park but the race is tight enough to make the 11-4 currently available less attractive.

One at a more attractive price given its previous C&D run has to be GINGER FIZZ in the 4:30. Currently trading as high as 14-1 GINGER FIZZ was seen staying on strongly, going down by 3/4 length to Nashville in a Class 5 over C&D and is now racing off a lower mark in Class 6 for the first time since scoring at Southwell.  A bonus is that Divea has been declared a non-runner to strengthen convictions.


Good Luck


Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Monday 23rd September 2013

23rd September 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

2:20 BetVictor.com/British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m2f
99.3%*Anipa 
98.6%Storm Force Ten 
97.8%Lightning Shower 
97.3%Black Label 
Al Khawaneej Star 
Devilment 
Lingfield Lupus 
Wedgwood 

Wary of Wolverhampton and FC!

The start of another week and we begin to see the frequency of meetings starting to ramp up with a meeting every day. Kempton Park today and Tuesday Lingfield Park hosts its first ALL All Weather card since the spring.  

After my comments yesterday regarding Ferguson Cameron and Wolverhampton, I had more than the usual number of emails asking which of the four All Weather tracks is the most profitable for us. As this question is not new to me I have become well versed in knocking back the question as the answer to the question is not quite as simple as one might imagine.

I realised after monitoring the courses myself over the years that consideration has to be made based upon opportunities for horses, class of race, frequency of meetings and a host of other factors far too time consuming to continue my efforts. The one thing that always became apparent is that Wolverhampton was always at the bottom of the list. This could be due to the standard of racing (based upon Southwell being third of the four) but considering Wolverhampton is the same surface as Lingfield and Kempton I have always put it down to Ferguson Cameron's stewardship of the surface. Neither of the fore mention have the same depth of going variation as Wolverhampton. Having two meetings back to back (Friday and Saturday) where the going was changed so much simply wouldn't happen at any other course other than by an act of god.

Rather than defining the going at Wolverhampton as consistently Standard, there are enough words in the English language to be more descriptive and I would chose 'Erratic'

For the record, by percentage of profitability here are the figures for each course:   
  
Lingfield Park
40.35%
Kempton Park
31.30%
Southwell
15.46%
Wolverhampton
12.88%


This all may leave you think simply ignore Wolverhampton, but unfortunately the form is all interlinked between tracks. Also consider that a 12.88% profit is better than a loss!

Jeremy Gask can tell us the future - Ferguson Cameron cant tell us about today!

After two flat performances from the first subscribers selections followed by 2 point selection Burren View Lady having to weave left and then right before able to unleash a run, closing all the way to the line but ultimately failing, I was beginning to think it was not going to be our day on Saturdays Wolverhampton card. 

Time to send in the cavalry! Relief came in the form of GETAWAY DRIVER (advised at 5-1). There was no 'squeaky bum' tight finish. The victory was an emphatic 11 lengths and undoubtedly the best performance on the clock of the evening. 

The times returned through last night's card would have you believe Fergus Cameron dug the course up between Friday and Saturday meetings! Having seen a gradual return to standard since September 7th and Fridays meeting, last night saw times return to slow which nobody could predict except the ground staff who must have deep harrowed. Isn't it time we had some communication to work being carried out rather than a vague 'Standard'

My write-up horse ANGEL WAY flattered to deceive and considering the level of opposition looks like needing to be dropped a far way in the handicap before it gets its head in front. With her failing to live up to expectations there was no surprise to see narrow margins between the front three.

Would you like to see the Future?

Just a hop skip and jump down the road from me in Sutton Veny is the Jeremy Gask operation and I received this invitation (as did all subscribers to their Horses First Racing newsletter) that may be of interest.

For the last 12 months we've been working on the development of new technology that allows Jeremy to see sectional times for horses, their stride lengths as they work (on the gallops and on the high speed treadmill), heart rates (both maximum and recovery), along with other useful data. At the same time we've also been developing the necessary communications technology to allow racehorse owners (and syndicate members anywhere in the world) to also view the data. We understand this service won't be for everybody, but for those who are interested in sports science, and owners wanting to know more about how their horse is being trained, this, we hope, is the first step in the revolution.

We are demonstrating some of the Total Performance Data pilot technology (powered by Gmax) at the yard. Do come and join us, with no obligation, on one of these dates:
Saturday 12th October
Wednesday 23rd October
Saturday 2nd November
All - 9.30am to 12, with light refreshments and yard tour, it will be relaxed, interesting, and lots of fun.

Enjoy your Sunday and see you back for Kempton Park tomorrow.

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Saturday 21st September 2013

21st September 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:50 B32Red Casino Handicap Cl6 5f20y
99.6%Exkaliber 
99.5%Kwanto 
99.4%Christopher Chua 
99.3%*College Doll 95.9%(1)
99.1%Imperial Spirit 
98.6%Compton Albion 100.1%(1)
97.9%Borough Boy 97.1%(3)
97.7%Almaty Express 98.4%(25)
97.6%Lady Rain 97.7%(1)
97.3%Marmot Bay 96.8%(2)
97.2%Princess Bounty 
97.2%Flow Chart 96.6%(1)
Chorister Choir 

6-1 Elusive win dead in the water!

A disappointing evening best epitomized by Elusive Waters in Wolverhampton's last race when beaten close home by 25-1 Monzino. Advising Elusive Waters at 6-1 to subscribers overnight and watching it backed down to 5-4, gave me that feeling of its divine right to win, but after wearing down rivals in the final furlong and hitting the front, it was soon apparent that the momentum of Monzino, coming wide from the rear, would culminate in an inevitable conclusion!

Not quite what was ordered in yesterday's write up of the 7:10 with Capo Rosso only making the frame at 12-1 and Horsted Keynes, the horse I was happy to lay, taking the prize. Even after the result, I stand by my opinion that it was poor value given the question marks I had around the winner.

Not a particularly enthralling card at Wolverhampton tonight with the best races on offer being Class 5s. Subscribers go to the meeting with 4 selections and the horse that is of most interest to me outside of those selections is ANGEL WAY in the 6:20. 

Although ANGEL WAY offers little in the way of value at 4-1, I would be disappointed if the drop in class didn't see it get the better of the more exposed runners with C&D runs which include Where's Reiley, Dream Catcher, Going French, Danzoe, Speightowns Kid and Little China. The LTO performances of those yet to race over C&D (Reminisce, Excellent Jem, Frognal) doesn't appear, at face value, to offer much more of a threat. With so little to chose between Going French, Danzoe, Dream Catcher, Wheres Reiley and Speightowns Kid who are all, with the exception of Going French, on more favourable terms than previous C&D runs, it would be nigh-on impossible to predict a danger. If ANGEL WAY can reproduce the time recorded on its last All Weather run at Kempton Park in June I would expect a reasonably comfortable victory.


Good Luck today with whatever you play.             

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Friday 20th September 2013

20th September 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:40 Sponsor A Race By Calling 01902 390000 Nursery Handicap Cl5 7f32y
99.6%*Quincel 99.6%(1)
99.0%Sheacheval 
98.6%Sandy Cove 
98.1%More Aspen 
97.9%Amadaffair 97.9%(1)
96.6%St Vincent 96.7%(1)
96.0%Exceed Areeda 
Nowinaminute 
Earl´s Bridge 
The Grumpy Gnome 
Opera Fan 
Drinkuptrig 

Seeing Red in Wolverhampton's 7:10

Another good evening for subscribers with 2 x 2 point selections going in at 7-2 and 10-3 dampened only marginally by the failure of Malaysian Boleh. 

There is always the odd result that you kick yourself over and Princess Spirit winning at 10-1 was mine. Top rated before adjustment, top rated over C&D (3 runs) and on the same competitive mark (50) and in the same company as previous C&D runs. This is undoubtedly a horse to keep a watchful eye on. The manner of victory, coming from the back of the field with a withering run, was checked by a horse drifting out in the final furlong and still gain the momentum again under Jennifer Ferguson to win going away.
  
Having great respect for Timeforms Neil Munro I was somewhat pessimistic about our first 2 point selection EXCELLENT PUCK after it was flagged up in his in-running podcast as un-genuine (or words to that effect) so was pleased to see it wear down its rivals in this fashion.

There were several performances of note last night beyond that of Princess Spirit. Although my eyes were fixed on our second 2 point selection HALLINGS TREASURE winning in the 7:40 it was hard to ignore The Welsh Wizard pulling the arms out of the sockets of Mr Barzalona for the vast part of the race while still managing to finish a creditable 3rd. Looks like a winner in the waiting over 10f!

POMPEIA from yesterdays write-up ran creditability and may strip fitter for the run and the ultra consistent Autun was there to pick up the pieces in the 8:40. I am sure that Lady Cecil will be pleased that he has finally got his head in front over middle distances.

1 point selection MALAYSIAN BOLEH clipped heels shortly after the start, was hampered coming in to the final furlong, not something you can afford to do over 6f, but still finished like an express train. I would suggest ignoring this run for future reference.

It must be 7f night at Wolverhampton this evening with 5 of 8 races contested over the 7f 32 yds distance with two division Class 4 races taking centre stage. As we have subscriber selection in Div II, I have skimmed through Div I (sorry short on time today) and picked up on CAPO ROSSO who won its last Class 4 race of a mark of 82 and has since, predominately raced in Class 2. This is its best trip and now on a mark of 85 should make it competitive at what appears a generous 12-1. Ready is a real danger to the selection. Also a 3yo and has recorded the best C&D in the field. My reservation is that when being caught close home over C&D that the race was the measure of it. There is no doubt that the jolly Horsted Keynes will have come on from its two runs as a 2yo but winning a Class 5 Maiden over this trip as a 2yo and being un-raced as a 3yo until September cast a cloud and I would rather lay than play it at 6-4.

Good Luck, and as Neil Munro says 'Keep Well'!

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Thursday 19th September 2013

19th September 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:40 BetVictor Back Of The Net Offer Handicap (Div I) Cl6 1m
100.5%Litmus 99.6%(3)
100.3%Welsh Inlet 
100.0%La Rosiere 97.3%(1)
99.8%Bladewood Girl 100.2%(5)
99.8%Saint Boniface 98.5%(1)
98.7%*Arabian Flight 98.6%(3)
98.6%Kielty´s Folly 99.6%(9)
98.2%Sonnetation 98.2%(1)
98.1%Lars Krister 98.1%(1)
97.9%Lightning Spirit 97.9%(3)
96.9%Royal Caper 99.8%(1)
96.9%Spinning Ridge 99.2%(11)
96.8%I´m Harry 
95.4%Mighty Mata 

Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Sunday, September 29, 2013

+104 points profit for The Actuary Subscribers in September

Not the best of prices but a 100% one out of one was a fitting end to a fantastic September for subscribers with LITTLE CHOOSEY, who opened at 9-4 taking the Wolverhampton opener. I have to admit turning my back on the meeting after the race in favour of other pursuits and watched the re-runs this morning.

Last night's meeting heralded the end of All Weather action for September and we found ourselves around +104 points to the good for our efforts. September also put us well on course to smash the profit made in 2012 with a shopping list of winners that included:

HOODNA 25-1
PRECISION STRIKE 14-1
BIG WHISKEY 14-1 (R4)
BAYTOWN KESTREL 12-1 (R4)
3 points PRINCE BISHOP 8-1
BLUEGRASS BLUES 6-1 (FPTP)
PROSPERA 6-1
SPECKLED 5-1
GETAWAY CAR 5-1
2 points EXCELLENT PUCK 7-2
2 points HALLINGS TRASURE 10-3
2 points LIMEGROVE 3-1
TRUCANINI 3-1
DRAGON CITY 3-1
CONDUCTING 5-2
POITIN 9-4
LITTLE CHOOSEY 9-4
ART WAVE 9-4
3 points CAT O'MOUNTAIN 2-1
ARCHIBALD THORBURN 7-4
2 points MARMALADY 4-5  

Not that I am displeased with the month but recounting those near misses, it could have been so much more! Most notably Hanzada 12-1 just headed in the last strides, and the one that still brings tears to my eyes, 3 point selection Honey of a Kitten 16-1 suffering the identical fate.

A two day break before we crack on with October where we have no fewer than 26 meetings!


Good luck :)  


Saturday, September 28, 2013

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Saturday 28th September 2013


28th September 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:30 bet365.com Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 5f216y
98.3%*Princess Sheila 97.9%(1)
98.1%Iffley Fields 
97.7%Daneglow 
97.3%Sunny Hollow 97.4%(1)
96.9%Little Choosey 
Wotalad 
Diva Delight 

Wolverhampton might be slow but I wouldn't trust Southwell form here!

It was one up, one down for subscribers on last night's Wolverhampton card and the one up was from the tightest of finishes as Hagree stayed with our selection ARCHIBALD THORBURN (7-4) all the way to line with only a short head separating them. The pair pulling 4 lengths clear of the remainder.

I am not disappointed to have only the one subscriber selection going for us today as each meeting at Wolverhampton gives us a better understanding of the form lines coming into and out of the meetings. ATR did a little piece in their evening coverage where the statement was made that jockeys believe the course is riding like Southwell! I have done a little research on this and from the small snap-shot we have at present I would suggest this is less than conclusive.

 Times returned halved, between standard and how slow the course rode on Thursday as they did last week. Assuming Fergus Cameron adopts the same attitude I would expect times to be revert back to Thursday slow conditions with a deep harrow before racing today.

If there was anything to gleam from results since the surface work, it would be the prevalence of good 'Sire' stats. As I learnt from my dabbling yesterday, it is probably wiser not to pick one over another having had a little tickle on On The Cusp only for the identically rated Dancing Cosmos to win at 25-1 :(


Good luck today with all your selections 

Friday, September 27, 2013

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Friday 27th September 2013

27th September 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:40 32Red Casino Handicap (Div I) Cl6 1m141y
100.2%Katmai River 99.8%(5)
100.0%King Of Wing 100.0%(1)
100.0%*Goal 99.8%(7)
100.0%Nezami 
99.3%Pippy 96.2%(1)
99.0%Sovereign Power 
97.4%Bitaphon 
97.4%Medecis Mountain 97.4%(1)
96.7%Valley Dreamer 
95.7%On The Cusp 98.9%(3)
94.3%Tanforan 97.6%(4)
Dancing Cosmos 
Poppy Bond 

No enthusiasm about Wolverhampton tonight!

As anticipated Wolverhampton didn't let us down with times recorded well below standard. Only the two subscriber selections on the card became one due to withdraw and I have no doubt the slow surface was the demise of the remaining selection HIDDEN BELIEF (advised at 4-1) who could only muster enough effort to finish second to Burning Dawn.

If there was a performance to take from the card, it was that of Burning Dawn who ran the fastest time of the evening to beat our selection. As to whether any of this form is transferable is debatable but the step up in trip from 7f to 9f definitely bought the best out as the breeding suggested it might.


After such a fantastic week it would take a lot to dampen spirits but the surface running this slow it definitely damps my enthusiasm in getting heavily involved outside of the two subscriber selection and I am happier to keep my powder dry for another day.   

Thursday, September 26, 2013

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Thursday 26th September 2013

26th September 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:45 32RedPoker.com Maiden Auction Stakes Cl6 5f216y
98.1%Clapperboard 98.1%(1)
97.2%Pelagian 
96.2%Lawman´s Lady 
95.9%*Spider Lily 
Copper Cavalier 
Monte Viso 
The Doyle Machine 
Kiss From A Rose 
Caroline´s Beach 

Wolverhampton: Testing, Testing, 1, 2, 3 :)

A much smaller profit on last night's Kempton Park card after being spoilt with Monday and Tuesdays big priced winners. This time we were at the other end of the price scale with our 3 point selection CAT O'MOUNTAIN (advised at 2-1) who defied the racing medias consensus of opinion in being a lay in emphatic style under Mr Barzalona.

Unfortunately ROYAL DUTCH could only make the frame at 10-1 in the 7:30 and there was no surprise that the unknown quantity that was Uphold took the spoils at 12-1.

As we head into the abyss of not one, or two, but three Wolverhampton meetings over Thursday, Friday and Saturday I have learned not to expect an improving situation and gradual quickening of the surface as I have previously done. I think we can safely say that conditions will be on the slow side. But how slow, we will not know until the first couple of races in each meeting.

So who are the contenders that have previously thrived in testing conditions?

Below is a list of horses that have previously put in a better than average performance in testing conditions on an All Weather surface, on or around the trip in order of merit for you:

6:15 - Loyal N Trusted, Night Trade, Run It Twice
7:45 - Mrs Bannock, Flamborough Breeze, Hidden Belief,  Elnadwa, Burning Dawn
9:15 - Pearla, Sea The Flames, Overrule 

This is a watching brief that may give us an angle for the following meetings dependant on their performances.


Good Luck to you all

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Ratings - Wednesday 25th September 2013

25th September 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:25 Reindeer Racing On 06.12.13 Maiden Stakes Cl5 5f
96.1%*Bazooka 
94.9%Back On Baileys 
94.4%Clumber Street 
Birikyno 
Decimus Maximus 
Dutch Interior 
Groundworker 
Rock N Rouge 
Saxony 
Spirit Of Alsace 
Sutton Sioux 
Tanojin 

14-1 & 12-1 winners tarnished by the dreaded Rule 4

Ok, so we all thought that we wouldn't surpass Mondays 25-1, especially not on the following day but we did, to a fashion. First up BAYTOWN KESTREL (advised at 12-1) went pillar to post to take the Lingfield Park opener which we went in to double handed with TRINITY RIVER (advised at 14-1) just beaten by a short-head into third place. For good measure BIG WHISKEY (advised at 14-1) landed the 4:00 under Jenifer Ferguson. Unfortunately we suffered massive rule 4's on both selections and were paid out at 9.8-1 and 9-1, but I guess were still way ahead of the game considering that they returned at 5-1 and 7-2 respectively. With our later 2 point selection withdrawn it ended another perfect day.

Even the baron spell for write up selections ended with WELEASE BWIAN taking the 2:30. If you can be disappointed on such a day, that honour goes to Ginger Fizz who is better dictating than coming off a dawdling pace as was the case yesterday.

Subscribers go in to today's evening meeting at Kempton Park with four races of interest with one race carrying the rarity of a 3 point selection. Outside of those races I thought I would look at the 7:30 Class 4:

Top weight Muharrer is yet to race on the surface but has done little to warrant that place with its only win being on its debut over 10f and four 2nd when it was found wanting. Uphold has run well here on its 2 previous C&D runs and I would expect it to be in the mix but the concern is the opposition is a little hotter than on those occasions and 9 runs in France obscure what if any improvement there has been. Bilidn has not been seen on a racecourse since November 2012 and find itself of a mark +30 than when being beaten 8.1/2 lengths competing over today's C&D. It did go on from that to land a five timer, all wins over further than today's 12f. Nave has three C&D runs to its name and the times returned would suggest it being competitive in this company. Sir Boss last won at 25-1 here at Kempton over 11f but is now on a mark that makes a win unlikely. Meetings Man, Uriah Heep, Scottish Star, Modernism and Qanan have not previously tackled C&D with the first three of the five recording the best times LTO. Of these Uriah Heep looks the most interesting after finishing 3rd to Jazz Master and Scottish Star over 11f. Uriah Heep finished as if the step up would suit, closing down on Scottish Star all the way to the line. Albeit Scottish Star was being eased but the addition furlong I feel will play more to Uriah Heep strengths than Scottish Star. With 5 C&D runs to its name King Olav looks outclassed on that form. ROYAL DUTCH was given a curious ride last time out over C&D 21 days ago. In a dawdling race Pat Cosgrove pulled the horse back from a prominent position to the rear of the field and then continued to ensure the horse had nowhere to go until too late. Now on a mark 3lb lower it would appear that the mischief was managed! The question is, 'is tonight the aim or a further reduction and a 0-70?'  

Good Luck to you all!

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Tuesday 24th September 2013

24th September 2013 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

2:00 At The Races Nursery Handicap Cl5 5f
99.9%Basil Berry 
99.7%*Baytown Kestrel 97.3%(1)
99.6%Trinity River 
98.6%Weisse Socken 
98.4%Fine Art Fair 98.4%(1)
98.4%Orlando Star 
97.3%M´Selle 96.3%(2)
97.2%Skinny Love 
Ice Slice 
Lady In Blue 

25-1 Actuary Subscribers selection fills the already overflowing September War Chest!

I am sorry for the sycophantic gloating but 25-1 winners are hard to find and when HOODNA went in yesterday for subscribers it gives me high that stays with me for a couple of days :) The result was even more meaningful to me in terms of my commitment to surpass last year's +395 profit. An aspiration I felt that was lost after August 2013 only delivering +37.73 in comparison to the +73.38 achieved in August 2012. 

Although September, prior to this result had put us back on track, HOODNA has put clear ground between 2013 and 2012. I can only trust that subscribers are enjoying the ride as much as I am :)

We have several big priced selections going to post today but outside of those there are two horses that catch my eye.

In Lingfield Parks 2:30 WELEASE BWIAN is going to take some stopping on these terms in this company. More of a grinder than a flashy burst of speed horse WELEASE BWIAN has put up four good performances over 5f at Lingfield Park but the race is tight enough to make the 11-4 currently available less attractive.

One at a more attractive price given its previous C&D run has to be GINGER FIZZ in the 4:30. Currently trading as high as 14-1 GINGER FIZZ was seen staying on strongly, going down by 3/4 length to Nashville in a Class 5 over C&D and is now racing off a lower mark in Class 6 for the first time since scoring at Southwell.  A bonus is that Divea has been declared a non-runner to strengthen convictions.


Good Luck


Monday, September 23, 2013

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Monday 23rd September 2013

23rd September 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

2:20 BetVictor.com/British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m2f
99.3%*Anipa 
98.6%Storm Force Ten 
97.8%Lightning Shower 
97.3%Black Label 
Al Khawaneej Star 
Devilment 
Lingfield Lupus 
Wedgwood 

Wary of Wolverhampton and FC!

The start of another week and we begin to see the frequency of meetings starting to ramp up with a meeting every day. Kempton Park today and Tuesday Lingfield Park hosts its first ALL All Weather card since the spring.  

After my comments yesterday regarding Ferguson Cameron and Wolverhampton, I had more than the usual number of emails asking which of the four All Weather tracks is the most profitable for us. As this question is not new to me I have become well versed in knocking back the question as the answer to the question is not quite as simple as one might imagine.

I realised after monitoring the courses myself over the years that consideration has to be made based upon opportunities for horses, class of race, frequency of meetings and a host of other factors far too time consuming to continue my efforts. The one thing that always became apparent is that Wolverhampton was always at the bottom of the list. This could be due to the standard of racing (based upon Southwell being third of the four) but considering Wolverhampton is the same surface as Lingfield and Kempton I have always put it down to Ferguson Cameron's stewardship of the surface. Neither of the fore mention have the same depth of going variation as Wolverhampton. Having two meetings back to back (Friday and Saturday) where the going was changed so much simply wouldn't happen at any other course other than by an act of god.

Rather than defining the going at Wolverhampton as consistently Standard, there are enough words in the English language to be more descriptive and I would chose 'Erratic'

For the record, by percentage of profitability here are the figures for each course:   
  
Lingfield Park
40.35%
Kempton Park
31.30%
Southwell
15.46%
Wolverhampton
12.88%


This all may leave you think simply ignore Wolverhampton, but unfortunately the form is all interlinked between tracks. Also consider that a 12.88% profit is better than a loss!

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Jeremy Gask can tell us the future - Ferguson Cameron cant tell us about today!

After two flat performances from the first subscribers selections followed by 2 point selection Burren View Lady having to weave left and then right before able to unleash a run, closing all the way to the line but ultimately failing, I was beginning to think it was not going to be our day on Saturdays Wolverhampton card. 

Time to send in the cavalry! Relief came in the form of GETAWAY DRIVER (advised at 5-1). There was no 'squeaky bum' tight finish. The victory was an emphatic 11 lengths and undoubtedly the best performance on the clock of the evening. 

The times returned through last night's card would have you believe Fergus Cameron dug the course up between Friday and Saturday meetings! Having seen a gradual return to standard since September 7th and Fridays meeting, last night saw times return to slow which nobody could predict except the ground staff who must have deep harrowed. Isn't it time we had some communication to work being carried out rather than a vague 'Standard'

My write-up horse ANGEL WAY flattered to deceive and considering the level of opposition looks like needing to be dropped a far way in the handicap before it gets its head in front. With her failing to live up to expectations there was no surprise to see narrow margins between the front three.

Would you like to see the Future?

Just a hop skip and jump down the road from me in Sutton Veny is the Jeremy Gask operation and I received this invitation (as did all subscribers to their Horses First Racing newsletter) that may be of interest.

For the last 12 months we've been working on the development of new technology that allows Jeremy to see sectional times for horses, their stride lengths as they work (on the gallops and on the high speed treadmill), heart rates (both maximum and recovery), along with other useful data. At the same time we've also been developing the necessary communications technology to allow racehorse owners (and syndicate members anywhere in the world) to also view the data. We understand this service won't be for everybody, but for those who are interested in sports science, and owners wanting to know more about how their horse is being trained, this, we hope, is the first step in the revolution.

We are demonstrating some of the Total Performance Data pilot technology (powered by Gmax) at the yard. Do come and join us, with no obligation, on one of these dates:
Saturday 12th October
Wednesday 23rd October
Saturday 2nd November
All - 9.30am to 12, with light refreshments and yard tour, it will be relaxed, interesting, and lots of fun.

Enjoy your Sunday and see you back for Kempton Park tomorrow.

Saturday, September 21, 2013

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Saturday 21st September 2013

21st September 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:50 B32Red Casino Handicap Cl6 5f20y
99.6%Exkaliber 
99.5%Kwanto 
99.4%Christopher Chua 
99.3%*College Doll 95.9%(1)
99.1%Imperial Spirit 
98.6%Compton Albion 100.1%(1)
97.9%Borough Boy 97.1%(3)
97.7%Almaty Express 98.4%(25)
97.6%Lady Rain 97.7%(1)
97.3%Marmot Bay 96.8%(2)
97.2%Princess Bounty 
97.2%Flow Chart 96.6%(1)
Chorister Choir 

6-1 Elusive win dead in the water!

A disappointing evening best epitomized by Elusive Waters in Wolverhampton's last race when beaten close home by 25-1 Monzino. Advising Elusive Waters at 6-1 to subscribers overnight and watching it backed down to 5-4, gave me that feeling of its divine right to win, but after wearing down rivals in the final furlong and hitting the front, it was soon apparent that the momentum of Monzino, coming wide from the rear, would culminate in an inevitable conclusion!

Not quite what was ordered in yesterday's write up of the 7:10 with Capo Rosso only making the frame at 12-1 and Horsted Keynes, the horse I was happy to lay, taking the prize. Even after the result, I stand by my opinion that it was poor value given the question marks I had around the winner.

Not a particularly enthralling card at Wolverhampton tonight with the best races on offer being Class 5s. Subscribers go to the meeting with 4 selections and the horse that is of most interest to me outside of those selections is ANGEL WAY in the 6:20. 

Although ANGEL WAY offers little in the way of value at 4-1, I would be disappointed if the drop in class didn't see it get the better of the more exposed runners with C&D runs which include Where's Reiley, Dream Catcher, Going French, Danzoe, Speightowns Kid and Little China. The LTO performances of those yet to race over C&D (Reminisce, Excellent Jem, Frognal) doesn't appear, at face value, to offer much more of a threat. With so little to chose between Going French, Danzoe, Dream Catcher, Wheres Reiley and Speightowns Kid who are all, with the exception of Going French, on more favourable terms than previous C&D runs, it would be nigh-on impossible to predict a danger. If ANGEL WAY can reproduce the time recorded on its last All Weather run at Kempton Park in June I would expect a reasonably comfortable victory.


Good Luck today with whatever you play.             

Friday, September 20, 2013

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Friday 20th September 2013

20th September 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:40 Sponsor A Race By Calling 01902 390000 Nursery Handicap Cl5 7f32y
99.6%*Quincel 99.6%(1)
99.0%Sheacheval 
98.6%Sandy Cove 
98.1%More Aspen 
97.9%Amadaffair 97.9%(1)
96.6%St Vincent 96.7%(1)
96.0%Exceed Areeda 
Nowinaminute 
Earl´s Bridge 
The Grumpy Gnome 
Opera Fan 
Drinkuptrig 

Seeing Red in Wolverhampton's 7:10

Another good evening for subscribers with 2 x 2 point selections going in at 7-2 and 10-3 dampened only marginally by the failure of Malaysian Boleh. 

There is always the odd result that you kick yourself over and Princess Spirit winning at 10-1 was mine. Top rated before adjustment, top rated over C&D (3 runs) and on the same competitive mark (50) and in the same company as previous C&D runs. This is undoubtedly a horse to keep a watchful eye on. The manner of victory, coming from the back of the field with a withering run, was checked by a horse drifting out in the final furlong and still gain the momentum again under Jennifer Ferguson to win going away.
  
Having great respect for Timeforms Neil Munro I was somewhat pessimistic about our first 2 point selection EXCELLENT PUCK after it was flagged up in his in-running podcast as un-genuine (or words to that effect) so was pleased to see it wear down its rivals in this fashion.

There were several performances of note last night beyond that of Princess Spirit. Although my eyes were fixed on our second 2 point selection HALLINGS TREASURE winning in the 7:40 it was hard to ignore The Welsh Wizard pulling the arms out of the sockets of Mr Barzalona for the vast part of the race while still managing to finish a creditable 3rd. Looks like a winner in the waiting over 10f!

POMPEIA from yesterdays write-up ran creditability and may strip fitter for the run and the ultra consistent Autun was there to pick up the pieces in the 8:40. I am sure that Lady Cecil will be pleased that he has finally got his head in front over middle distances.

1 point selection MALAYSIAN BOLEH clipped heels shortly after the start, was hampered coming in to the final furlong, not something you can afford to do over 6f, but still finished like an express train. I would suggest ignoring this run for future reference.

It must be 7f night at Wolverhampton this evening with 5 of 8 races contested over the 7f 32 yds distance with two division Class 4 races taking centre stage. As we have subscriber selection in Div II, I have skimmed through Div I (sorry short on time today) and picked up on CAPO ROSSO who won its last Class 4 race of a mark of 82 and has since, predominately raced in Class 2. This is its best trip and now on a mark of 85 should make it competitive at what appears a generous 12-1. Ready is a real danger to the selection. Also a 3yo and has recorded the best C&D in the field. My reservation is that when being caught close home over C&D that the race was the measure of it. There is no doubt that the jolly Horsted Keynes will have come on from its two runs as a 2yo but winning a Class 5 Maiden over this trip as a 2yo and being un-raced as a 3yo until September cast a cloud and I would rather lay than play it at 6-4.

Good Luck, and as Neil Munro says 'Keep Well'!

Thursday, September 19, 2013

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Thursday 19th September 2013

19th September 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with 
no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance 
on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, 
the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to 
any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before 
each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the 
merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.

5:40 BetVictor Back Of The Net Offer Handicap (Div I) Cl6 1m
100.5%Litmus 99.6%(3)
100.3%Welsh Inlet 
100.0%La Rosiere 97.3%(1)
99.8%Bladewood Girl 100.2%(5)
99.8%Saint Boniface 98.5%(1)
98.7%*Arabian Flight 98.6%(3)
98.6%Kielty´s Folly 99.6%(9)
98.2%Sonnetation 98.2%(1)
98.1%Lars Krister 98.1%(1)
97.9%Lightning Spirit 97.9%(3)
96.9%Royal Caper 99.8%(1)
96.9%Spinning Ridge 99.2%(11)
96.8%I´m Harry 
95.4%Mighty Mata