The Actuary All Weather Horse Racing Tips - Week 4 Report

A week of consolidation as we moved our profit on to +£2,231.18 to £10 stakes. Week 4 definitely proved to be an interesting week where a few expected but unwelcome scenarios played out in the early days putting the strategy of Betfair ‘place’ bets on the exchanges to the test. We also experienced the first week where Betfair outperformed BOG Bookmakers. As this was also the first complete week of ordering on Betfair at 15% above Bookmakers opening shows it might be a sign of things to come. 

BOOKMAKERS: A poor return with the Bookmakers due to the string of horses that could only manage a place in the opening three days. In comparison the final four days provided us with just short of +£200 allowing us to put our nose in front on the line courtesy of Putin 12-1 and Cosquillos 11-1.

BETFAIR WIN: A pleasant surprise in that this week we made some inroads into what was an increasing gap over the first three weeks between Bookmakers returns and Betfair returns. No surprise that is was due to orders matched on winning outsiders with some of this ground being made up with the win of Putin and most notably Cosquillos who was available at 17.00 at the time of the opening Bookmakers show of 11-1.

BETFAIR PLACE: I have no intention to act on such a small snapshot but other than the highlight of Prince Of Passion being placed and returning a reasonable profit, all too frequently we are failing to return all of our lost win stake with 'place' bets. I would have been hopeful that during the opening three days we would have seen a return sufficient enough to at least half win loses where it has only compounded loses over the three days. Although we have seen a £292.32 profit on place bets over the 4 weeks I intend to monitor the in-play markets over the coming weeks to see if there is sufficient movement and liquidity to consider this as an alternative option.

WEEK 4 SUMMARY (£10 STAKES):

BOOKMAKERS   +£16.02

BETFAIR WIN:     +£61.18

BETFAIR PLACE: -£2.28

TOTAL:                          +£74.92

2014 SUMMARY (£10 STAKES):

BOOKMAKERS:  +£1034.75

BETFAIR WIN:     +£904.12

BETFAIR PLACE: +£292.32

TOTAL:                   +£2,231.18

Time to batten down the hatches with no fewer than 7 meetings over the next three days to finish the month :)

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