Why the market doesn't always reflect horse true chances on the All Weather

As spectacular as Saturdays Lingfield Park card was, for someone who bases their race analysis on what horses have previously done on an artifice surface rather than suppositions, the disappointment was undoubtedly the success of horse previously un-raced on the surface. With winners Stepper Point 16-1, Ertijaal 5-4 and Van Percy 5-4 all making their débuts on the surface on the 7 race card.

Saturdays Lingfield Park card kicked off with an apprentice 1m 5f race where only 3 of the 6 runners had infrequently tackled the trip or beyond resulting in the two outsiders of the field taking the first two places. Perhaps this is what sets the All Weather apart from racing on Turf, where the trainers, due to the consistency of the surface are more than willing to chop and change trip. Recognising the most favourable trips in terms of times recorded rather than distance beaten by is in my opinion pivotal. With the market bias favouring recent form, trainer success and jockey bookings, there is a tendency to disregard the trip. 

The opening race at Wolverhampton today (2:40) is a typical example where only 3 of the 7 runners ran over today’s trip of 6f LTO. Favourite Oasis Water last raced over a mile which is more in line with its breeding and has only got its head in front once in a Maiden from 3 starts over todays trip. Second favourite and Maiden, Beylerbey has raced over 8f, 8f, 6f and 7f in its four starts. The one 6f start saw it beaten 8 lengths. Star Up In The Sky has 2 wins over today's trip BUT that was at Southwell! Today is a different proposition and on this surface and Turf, Star Up In The Sky has been beaten over 10 lengths on each of its four attempts. Laughing Rock opened its account at the first time of asking over 7f in 2012 and was pushed up to 11f after 2 further attempts over 7f. After winning over 6f at Leicester has raced almost exclusively over 6f, the last 4 starts at Southwell. Megaleka, from 29 starts has raced over 6f only 4 times, beaten in excess of 10 lengths on each occasion. Climaxfortackle has won twice over 9f and twice over 6f, three of these wins were at Wolverhampton. Amosite has won 6 times with 4 wins over 7f, 1 win over 6f (June 2012) and 1 win over 5f. With the exception of one win, Amosite made virtually all!

The short synopsis of the 2:40 suggests to me that the market might just be a little upside-down and we may see a similar scenario as played out in Lingfield Parks first race.

As commendable as LTO form may look, the trip has to be a key indicator of the trainers intentions and it may be worth keep a close eye on Ishisoba and Vhujon in the 3:10. Master Of Disguise 3:40, Safwaan 5:10 and Dozy Joe 5:40

Thanks to all those well-wishers after my operation, it is very much appreciated. A good week of results this week would be the ideal medicine and I will get this years P&L up to date and on the blog ASAP.

Have a great day guys!