39-1 (Betfair) for a horse whos trainer has a 31% strike rate at Southwell

Of the horses that I suggested keeping your eye on yesterday: 3:10 Ishisoba was declared a non-runner, Vhujon belied its odds as the 16-1 outsider finishing 6^th of 11 beaten 5.3/4 lengths. More poignant is that this was from the bottom of the handicap. 3:40 Master Of Disguise (25-1) again, the outsider of the party and at the bottom of the Handicap only beat one home which would suggest his day is no nearer. This also applies to 5:10 Safwaan. 5:40 Dozy Joe (the only horse of those mentioned that ran over its LTO trip, was at the top of the handicap, won with consummate ease.

Each of the horses mentioned were running over a favourable trip but not necessarily in the company that would see them competitive. I will be very surprised if Vhujon was not placed in weaker company next time out given yesterday’s performance with a view to it being far more competitive without damaging its OR. I would also suggest that Master Of Disguise and Saafwan will likely be placed in races over alternative trips while they are bought to the boil.

Only 2 of the 7 Wolverhampton winners were unraced on the surface and both received solid market support (Indian Trifone, Life And Times) and with a high percentage of horses coming to the surface for the first time today at Southwell the game changes. I feel that distance becomes less an issue and finding horses that can just keep rolling on the Fibresand is key.  

Of the 7 races on offer, only the 3:25 has a full complement of horses previously raced on Fibresand with the 4:00 offering my best sire stats for the newcomers. Sandwiching the market we have Tarrafal (Shamardal) and Zephyr (Shirooco) both rating at 40% for their respective sires in this Class and over this trip, with the former and Mark Johnston trained horse Tarrafal offering the more attractive form line, but this surface can be a great leveller and Karl Burkes 30% strike rate at the course is hard to ignore at 39 on the exchanges!

There were no profile horses yesterday but we have a couple for you today, adding your email below should take you straight to them. If you have already submitted your email just navigate to the usual link.

I am sure we are in for an interesting day so enjoy ;)