Lay-off the Kempton Park winners!

Although my wise words yesterday came to fruition regarding Kempton Park favouring horses that had run, won and competed over further, it helped little in pin-pointing winners. The surprises of the day where that 4 of the 7 winners made all and came from horses that had long lay-offs with only the last two races being won by horses that had run within the last month.

Having a horse that is capable of winning in listed class locked away since June 2013 as was the case with Contributor makes little sense. Equally, Salutation had been kept under lock and key since October 2013 after disappointing on heavy or soft ground on its previous five starts. Whether the trainer should be applauded for their ability to bring a horse to the course in such form after a lay off or admonished for their inability in finding opportunities for these horses is debatable.

It does bring to the fore that as a speed handicapper, to wary of the likely improvement of 2yo and 3yo horses after a lay off coming back as more mature 4yo’s. Although this will obviously vary from horse to horse, below is a chart taken from the past 5 years showing the average progression of 3yo’s through the year and when they are best able to compete with older rivals.

Enjoy your day of rest ;)