Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 10th October 2014

10th October 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Race 5f
97.9%	*	General Marshall
97.7%		Vocal Warm Up
97.5%		Arriana	89	98.9%	(1)
91.2%		Cleveland Street		91.2%	(1)
		Blackbriar
		Mc Diamond
		Anonymous Lady
		Queenlet

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings

10th October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:45 Ladbrokes Handicap (Tapeta) Cl5 5f216y
101.6%		Dominium	73	101.4%	(1)		❾
101.5%	*	Ashkari	74	101.6%	(1)		❷
100.6%		Storm Lightning
100.4%		Realize
99.7%		Hadaj					❺
99.3%		Ambitious Boy	64
99.2%		Flicksta
99.1%		Al´s Memory	80
99.1%		Punk
98.8%		Baby Strange	84
98.2%		Rocket Rob
		Lastchancelucas
		Springlike

Driven to enter the ATR Tipping Challenge

As the mysteries of Wolverhampton’s new Tapeta surface reveal themselves it was noticeable from last night’s results that taking the number of runners in to account, all but one winner came from the higher end of the draw. 

I had noted in my previous article ‘1 to avoid at Wolverhampton’ the prevalence of high numbers in big fields (even over the minimum trip) so perhaps I am looking for a bias that doesn't exist but bare with me and you will be astounded!

Here are the results from last night:

5:20 12 runners (6)

5:50 5 runners (3)

6:20 11 runners (9)

6:50 8 runners (8)

7:20 7 runners (5)

7:50 5 runners (1)

8:20 11 runners (11)

As with all analysis of this nature, some consideration should be given (but hasn't at this stage) to what is going in to the stall. I.e. Putting a three legged pony in to a favourable draw is not going to produce Pegasus!

Although we only have a small data set of 126 races to date, I find the following statistic staggering.

From 196 races the winning draw was higher than the number of runners divided by 2: 111 times, whereas the number of races won by those in the lower half of the draw equalled only 15!  

Through my eyes this further endorses my theory that the larger the field the more favourable a high draw. It is difficult to establish at this juncture whether the trip has any bearing.

With field sizes of 12, 7, 11, 12, 13, 10, 11 and 12 on the very poor Wolverhampton card this evening it will be interesting to see if this theory continues to be so fruitful. With only one race of personal interest I might be driven to enter the At The Races Tipping Challenge to make the evening a little more interesting.    

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 9th October 2014

9th October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:20 EBF Stallions betting.co.uk - Terrific Maiden Fillies´ Stakes (Bobis Race) (Tapeta) Cl5 5f216y
99.9%	*	Luna Mission
99.7%		Slovak		99.9%	(1)		❺
98.8%		Silvery Blue
98.5%		Bonfire Heart		98.7%	(1)
98.3%		Mary´s Secret
98.2%		Simple Elegance
96.9%		Glenbuck Lass
96.7%		Perfect Bounty
93.1%		Emma Bovary		92.5%	(1)
		Exoplanet Blue
		Scent Of Summer
		The Fairy					❸
		Vixen Hill

Am I alone in feeling very cynical regarding the motives behind late withdraws?

An SP of 7-2 for our selection Diamonds A Dancing didn’t do justice to the day’s events and being on at the opening show of between 7-1 and 13-2 was the days saving grace.

Am I alone in feeling very cynical regarding the motives behind late withdraws of horses? Instinct told me that the late withdraw of the favourite Ar Colleen Aine from the Kempton Park opener was significant and immediately conjured an image in my mind of Trainers (or connections) rubbing shoulders at the course discussing the possible outcomes of the days races. I had expected after the withdraw that either one of the two un-raced horses on the surface (so often the case on the All Weather): Giannizzero or Just The Tip were likely performer above the level that they had previously pertained too. The facile victory of the latter did nothing to dispel this notion.

As equally disappointing as the results up until this stage was the turnout for the Class 3 £9k pot where the smallest field of the day was further reduced to 5 runners, including the lay of the day on my figures Hasopop who had shown nothing on two previous C&D runs and dutifully finished last!

With reasonable runs from earlier selections, trading at lows of 2.0, 1.91 and 2.52 respectively, it was disappointing that it wasn’t until Diamonds A Dancing’s 13-2 victory that we put some money in the bank. I am sure Franny Norton found waiting around for his only ride till 9:25 equally rewarding and will welcome the early night tonight ;)

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 8th October 2014

8th October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:55 100% RacingUK Profits Returned To Racing Claiming Stakes Cl6 6f
99.5%	*	Ar Colleen Aine	65	98.4%	(1)		❶
98.8%		Designate					❹
97.9%		Classic Seniority					❶
97.9%		Tinkers Kiss		99.3%	(1)		❷
96.8%		Zebs Lad					❹
96.8%		Mylaporyours
96.4%		Mister Arden		96.4%	(1)
96.0%		Come Uppence
		Giannizzero
		Just The Tip					❶

Peace Seeker provides some peace of mind @ 8-1

Subscribers where blissfully unaware of the poignancy of winning 8-1 selection Peace Seeker in Kempton Parks finale last night. After the success of selection Shining Glitter accounting for the poor run of Dark Ocean earlier in the evening, the days success hinged on the 8:35 which we went into double handed with 16-1 Desert Strike and 8-1 Peace Seeker.

After playing god earlier in the month in opting to deliver only the highest rated in a race providing two qualifying selections ‘Playing God with the figures to all our cost!’ Kempton Parks 8:35 offered the same scenario:

With a qualifying percentage of 20% the margin of difference on this

occasion was even tighter of that on 2nd October with Desert Strike marginally ahead of Peace Seeker by 0.2%. The difference at the line was far more comfortable. Not a 16-1winner, but we are half-way there in making amends.

With the withdraw of Hoist The Colours in Kempton Parks 7:55, the only race where we had two selections this evening, we now go in to the meeting with single selections in the four races of interest. 

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 7th October 2014

7th October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:35 Jump Sunday At Kempton Park 19.10.14 Maiden Fillies´ Stakes (Bobis Race) Cl5 1m
99.7%	*	Jersey Jewel
97.7%		Singoalla					❶
97.6%		Forte					❷
95.2%		Purple Surprise					❶
		Alla Breve					❶
		Barqeyya					❷
		Sonic Rainbow
		Yarrow					❶
		Zebella

All Weather or National Hunt for your Sporting Life this winter?

With only a handful of ‘Turf Flat’ meetings left on the horse racing calendar we have the choice of turning our attention to All Weather Horse Racing or the National Hunt. The news that Chelmsford City (Great Leighs) will be hosting 57 day and evening ‘All Weather’ meetings, Kempton Park day and evening ‘All Weather’ meetings, Lingfield Park, Southwell, Wolverhampton day and evening ‘All Weather’ meetings and the introduction of ‘All Weather’ horse racing at Newcastle and Catterick looming ever nearer, there is no doubt that racing on an artificial surface is going to become harder to ignore.

   

The alternative of the National Hunt, with small fields but for a handful of major events which have become ‘Bookie Benefits’, short priced winners, littered with abandonments, where less than a handful of jockeys ride the majority of winners and one particular jockey rides 25% of his mounts to victory. As attractive a spectacle as the National Hunt may be, as a profitable betting medium, I feel NOT!

For those readers of this blog that do not subscribe, I thought this a good time to show you what is on offer as a subscriber to The Actuary All Weather Horse Racing Tips and the potential that can be tapped into if you are considering where to focus your attention this winter.

• Before the Bookmakers have priced up the next days ‘All Weather’ meetings you receive the selections email. The emphasis is to take the opening shows on each selection:

Example of email sent to subscribers at 12:07 on Friday 3rd October 2014 for racing on Saturday 4th October 2014:

• The number of selections vary each day as they are dependent on methodical selection processes. On rare occasions there can be NO selections.

• ‘The Actuary currently offers 4 methodical selection process, each profitable in their own right: ‘Trip Handicap’, ‘On The Money’, ‘The Actuary’ and ‘Speed & Class’.

• To emulate the 7 years of profit made by ‘The Actuary’ once the markets are open (around 5:00 pm the evening before for Handicaps – Around 8:00 am the next morning for non-handicaps, you place 1 point per selection under each heading at the best price on offer from any BOG (Best Offer Guarantee Bookmaker).  

• BOG Explained: If you back a selection at an opening show of 6-1 and it drifts during the day to an SP of 10-1, you will be paid at 10-1. If you back a selection at an opening show of 6-1 and it shortens to an SP of 4-1, you will be paid at 6-1   

• Example with prices taken:

9-2 2 points win Evacusafe Lady WOLV 5:25

5-1 2 points win Fruit Pastille WOLV 8:30

10-3 2 points win Tinghir WOLV 7:30

5-1 1 point win Devilment WOLV 7:30

5-4 1 point win Emirates Joy WOLV 6:00

50-1 1 point win Zeteah WOLV 6:00 

3-1 1 point win Ar Colleen Aine WOLV 6:30 

• In the example above we have two selections in both the 6:00 and 7:30. Although this is not ideal, I have found to my cost that attempting to favour one selection over another is unwise. As there are 4 selection methods there can be the odd occasions where there are up to 4 selections. Most recently:

• In the example above we have 3 selections under one method. Unfortunately, my advice is the bet would still be 1 point per selection and not the successful ‘Tri-cast’ ;(

That is it in a nutshell! If you are considering subscribing and have further questions please feel free to drop me a line at theactuary@ymail.com.

GOOD LUCK  

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 4th October 2014

4th October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:25 Collect totepool Winnings At Betfred Shops Handicap (Tapeta) (Div I) Cl6 1m1f103y
100.1%	*	Evacusafe Lady
99.0%		Golly Miss Molly		99.4%	(1)
98.8%		Jayeff Herring	56
98.7%		Patronella
97.6%		L Ge R
97.2%		Tsarglas					❾
95.0%		Cascadia
94.8%		Vaguely Spanish
94.5%		Libra Romana
93.6%		Mercury Magic
93.0%		Pepperello
		Dream And Hope
		Ballyfarsoon

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 3rd October 2014

3rd October 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:50 Enjoy Daily Betting Tips @ bookmakers.co.uk Handicap (Tapeta) Cl6 5f20y
100.6%	*	Insolenceofoffice	74
100.1%		Dream Sika	50	99.9%	(2)		❺
99.4%		Give Us A Belle	52	99.6%	(1)		❷
99.4%		Pearl Noir
99.0%		Passionada	64	99.2%	(1)
98.8%		Danzoe	66	98.2%	(1)		❷
98.8%		Douneedahand	62
98.2%		Interchoice Star	56
97.8%		Befortyfour	71
97.8%		Spic ´n Span	60
97.3%		College Doll	50
93.8%		My Time	51
		Irish Girls Spirit

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 3rd October 2014

3rd October 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:35 Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Auction Maiden 1m
99.7%	*	Manny Owens
97.5%		Mattydillon
95.6%		Invincible Missile
		Cape Wolfe
		Great Dancer
		Time To Remember
		Wonder Holy
		Evatec Flyer
		Pullman Brown
		Qat Flyer
		Moving On Up
		Fionn´s Lady
		Magic Of Christmas

Formerly Great Leighs, Chelmsford City racecourse given 56 meetings

Chelmsford City racecourse will stage 56 meetings next year, according to the track's managing director Philip Siers. The All Weather course formerly known as Great Leighs, will host racing for the first time since it was closed in 2009 after going into administration. The British Horseracing Authority had initially authorised 12 fixtures for the Essex all-weather flat track.

"There will be a full programme and we hope that will go from strength to strength. We're scheduled to start racing around the middle of January. We'll probably have a couple of meetings in January to give us a small start into the racing season, but we've been guaranteed 56 fixtures next year." said the Chelmsford City Management who hope to have new grandstands in operation by November and, although next year's meetings will be run on an all-weather surface, they also aim to have a turf track in place by late 2016.

Chelmsford City has been owned since 2011 by MC Racetracks, which failed with two bids to acquire fixtures before finally being approved this year. The BHA will release the full 2015 schedule before the end of the month.

Playing God with the figures to all our cost!

Over the past couple of weeks subscribers have had to tolerate my pugnacious attitude in sticking to my guns in putting up selections regardless of whether we arrived into the race with two or even three selections in one event. After a very successful 50+ points profit in September there appeared to be no reason to alter my stance on the subject, BUT I did today to my cost!.

I can even recall one race during September where we had 3 selections in a 10 horse race. On that occasion we had the good fortune of a 1,2,3 with the winner 10-1 ‘Sweeping Up’ beating the other two selections into 2^nd and 3^rd at 10-3 and 5-2 respectively.

What subscribers don’t see is the dilemma I go through when this happens in my perceiving how this is being received. When we are in the midst of a successful month, a devil may care attitude is far more easily achieved, but the start of a new month leaves me questioning whether to put up ALL qualifying selections especially when we appear to have a singular selection that appears to be stronger in the race.

Wednesday started off with a cringe worthy ride by 3lb claimer Cam Hardie on the day’s first selection 12-1 Appyjack which left me less than ‘Appy’ but as racing often does, insult was added to my injuries!

In Kempton Parks 7:15 I had made the decision that a 0.3% differential on the qualifying criteria of 20% was large enough to opt for Big Whisky rather than put up 2 selections in the race. Big Whisky was marginally ahead of the alternative selection on un-adjusted SF’S, marginally ahead regarding consistency, marginally ahead on C&D! In fact Big Whisky was marginally ahead everywhere I looked accept for at the line.

After a commendable performance finishing 5^th on its first appearance over C&D I opted NOT to put up qualifier 16-1 winner Ogbourne Downs in the 7:15. The insult to injury was that Cam Hardie was on-board.

The lesson is that two selections would have resulted in a 15-1 rather than 16-1 winner due to the point dropped on the other selection. I won’t be sleeping well tonight knowing that I have deprived subscribers of a good pay-day and have been guilty of playing god with my own figures  NEVER AGAIN! L

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 2nd October 2014

2nd October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:45 Download The BetVictor App Now Handicap Cl6 1m
101.2%		Icy Blue	60	101.2%	(1)
99.9%	*	Lexington Blue
99.5%		Dream And Search					❶
99.5%		Warbond	57	99.8%	(19)
99.2%		Appyjack	47	98.3%	(8)
99.1%		Baars Causeway					❶
98.8%		Rezwaan	65	98.5%	(13)		❶
98.8%		Speedy Writer		98.8%	(3)		❶
98.7%		Polydamos	50	99.1%	(4)		❶
98.4%		Berrahri		98.8%	(1)		❶
98.2%		El Mirage	60	100.3%	(1)		❶
98.1%		Eugenic		97.2%	(1)
96.9%		Southern Cross					❶
95.5%		Severn Crossing		96.1%	(2)		❶

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 1st October 2014

1st October 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:45 Haymarket Sales Team Of The Year Handicap Cl7 5f
99.9%	*	First Rebellion	49	98.6%	(1)
99.5%		Greek Islands					❶
98.5%		Volcanic Dust	59	99.0%	(6)
98.4%		Avonvalley	61	97.7%	(1)		❶
98.4%		Silken Poppy					❶
98.0%		Mack´s Sister					❶
96.8%		Dont Tell Nan
96.2%		Speedy Rio
95.5%		Ladydolly	53	94.2%	(1)		❶
		Befortyfour					❶