Playing God with the figures to all our cost!

Over the past couple of weeks subscribers have had to tolerate my pugnacious attitude in sticking to my guns in putting up selections regardless of whether we arrived into the race with two or even three selections in one event. After a very successful 50+ points profit in September there appeared to be no reason to alter my stance on the subject, BUT I did today to my cost!.

I can even recall one race during September where we had 3 selections in a 10 horse race. On that occasion we had the good fortune of a 1,2,3 with the winner 10-1 ‘Sweeping Up’ beating the other two selections into 2^nd and 3^rd at 10-3 and 5-2 respectively.

What subscribers don’t see is the dilemma I go through when this happens in my perceiving how this is being received. When we are in the midst of a successful month, a devil may care attitude is far more easily achieved, but the start of a new month leaves me questioning whether to put up ALL qualifying selections especially when we appear to have a singular selection that appears to be stronger in the race.

Wednesday started off with a cringe worthy ride by 3lb claimer Cam Hardie on the day’s first selection 12-1 Appyjack which left me less than ‘Appy’ but as racing often does, insult was added to my injuries!

In Kempton Parks 7:15 I had made the decision that a 0.3% differential on the qualifying criteria of 20% was large enough to opt for Big Whisky rather than put up 2 selections in the race. Big Whisky was marginally ahead of the alternative selection on un-adjusted SF’S, marginally ahead regarding consistency, marginally ahead on C&D! In fact Big Whisky was marginally ahead everywhere I looked accept for at the line.

After a commendable performance finishing 5^th on its first appearance over C&D I opted NOT to put up qualifier 16-1 winner Ogbourne Downs in the 7:15. The insult to injury was that Cam Hardie was on-board.

The lesson is that two selections would have resulted in a 15-1 rather than 16-1 winner due to the point dropped on the other selection. I won’t be sleeping well tonight knowing that I have deprived subscribers of a good pay-day and have been guilty of playing god with my own figures  NEVER AGAIN! L