THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 26th March KEMPTON PARK- 27th March WOLVERHAMPTON- 29th March WOLVERHAMPTON - 30th March LINGFIELD PARK, KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 31st March WOLVERHAMPTON & CHELMSFORD CITY - 1ST aPRIL LINGFIELD PARK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 2nd April KEMPTON PARK -

Driven to enter the ATR Tipping Challenge

As the mysteries of Wolverhampton’s new Tapeta surface reveal themselves it was noticeable from last night’s results that taking the number of runners in to account, all but one winner came from the higher end of the draw. 

I had noted in my previous article ‘1 to avoid at Wolverhampton’ the prevalence of high numbers in big fields (even over the minimum trip) so perhaps I am looking for a bias that doesn't exist but bare with me and you will be astounded!

Here are the results from last night:

5:20 12 runners (6)
5:50 5 runners (3)
6:20 11 runners (9)
6:50 8 runners (8)
7:20 7 runners (5)
7:50 5 runners (1)
8:20 11 runners (11)

As with all analysis of this nature, some consideration should be given (but hasn't at this stage) to what is going in to the stall. I.e. Putting a three legged pony in to a favourable draw is not going to produce Pegasus!

Although we only have a small data set of 126 races to date, I find the following statistic staggering.

From 196 races the winning draw was higher than the number of runners divided by 2: 111 times, whereas the number of races won by those in the lower half of the draw equalled only 15!  
Through my eyes this further endorses my theory that the larger the field the more favourable a high draw. It is difficult to establish at this juncture whether the trip has any bearing.

With field sizes of 12, 7, 11, 12, 13, 10, 11 and 12 on the very poor Wolverhampton card this evening it will be interesting to see if this theory continues to be so fruitful. With only one race of personal interest I might be driven to enter the At The Races Tipping Challenge to make the evening a little more interesting.    

Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Friday, October 10, 2014

Driven to enter the ATR Tipping Challenge

As the mysteries of Wolverhampton’s new Tapeta surface reveal themselves it was noticeable from last night’s results that taking the number of runners in to account, all but one winner came from the higher end of the draw. 

I had noted in my previous article ‘1 to avoid at Wolverhampton’ the prevalence of high numbers in big fields (even over the minimum trip) so perhaps I am looking for a bias that doesn't exist but bare with me and you will be astounded!

Here are the results from last night:

5:20 12 runners (6)
5:50 5 runners (3)
6:20 11 runners (9)
6:50 8 runners (8)
7:20 7 runners (5)
7:50 5 runners (1)
8:20 11 runners (11)

As with all analysis of this nature, some consideration should be given (but hasn't at this stage) to what is going in to the stall. I.e. Putting a three legged pony in to a favourable draw is not going to produce Pegasus!

Although we only have a small data set of 126 races to date, I find the following statistic staggering.

From 196 races the winning draw was higher than the number of runners divided by 2: 111 times, whereas the number of races won by those in the lower half of the draw equalled only 15!  
Through my eyes this further endorses my theory that the larger the field the more favourable a high draw. It is difficult to establish at this juncture whether the trip has any bearing.

With field sizes of 12, 7, 11, 12, 13, 10, 11 and 12 on the very poor Wolverhampton card this evening it will be interesting to see if this theory continues to be so fruitful. With only one race of personal interest I might be driven to enter the At The Races Tipping Challenge to make the evening a little more interesting.