As the mysteries of Wolverhampton’s new Tapeta surface
reveal themselves it was noticeable from last night’s results that taking the number
of runners in to account, all but one winner came from the higher end of the draw.
I had noted in my previous article ‘1
to avoid at Wolverhampton’ the prevalence of high numbers in big fields
(even over the minimum trip) so perhaps I am looking for a bias that doesn't exist but bare with me and you will be astounded!
Here are the results from last night:
5:20 12 runners (6)
5:50 5 runners (3)
6:20 11 runners (9)
6:50 8 runners (8)
7:20 7 runners (5)
7:50 5 runners (1)
8:20 11 runners (11)
As with all analysis of this nature, some consideration should be given (but hasn't at this stage) to what is going in to the stall. I.e. Putting a three legged pony
in to a favourable draw is not going to produce Pegasus!
Although we only have a small data set of 126 races to date, I find the following statistic staggering.
From 196 races the winning draw was higher than the number
of runners divided by 2: 111 times, whereas the number of races won by those in the
lower half of the draw equalled only 15!
Through my eyes this further endorses my
theory that the larger the field the more favourable a high draw. It is difficult to establish at this juncture whether the trip has any bearing.
With field sizes of 12, 7, 11, 12, 13, 10, 11 and 12 on the very
poor Wolverhampton card this evening it will be interesting to see if this
theory continues to be so fruitful. With only one race of personal interest I
might be driven to enter the At The Races Tipping Challenge to make the evening a little
more interesting.
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