Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 30th September 2014

30th September 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:50 Price Boosts Galore @ bookmakers.co.uk Maiden Auction Stakes (Tapeta) Cl5 7f32y
96.3%	*	Shimmering Silver
95.0%		Onelastfling
		Midtech Star
		Eatsleepracerepeat
		Oracolo
		Cascading Stars					❾
		Sea Of Red					❸
		Simone On Time

1 to avoid at Wolverhampton (Dunstall Park)

We are now 97 races in to the new Tapeta surfaced at Wolverhampton and although a snap-shot at such an early point may appear premature, being somewhat disappointed with the results to-date, I thought a cursory trend analysis might throw up some interesting angles.

My first port of call was to look at where the winners were coming from:

There is little to gleam from the results beyond the growing increase in those horses that are re-appearing on Tapeta (WOLVt) and the obvious decrease in those that appear last on the old surface (WOLV). The transition from Lingfield Park to Tapeta looks at this stage more favourable than Kempton Park. The blank at the bottom of the list signifies those horse that have not previously raced on an artificial surface.

The statistics regarding the draw are as follow with the distances displayed as decimal parts of a mile .64 = 5f 20yds, 0.75 = 5f 216yds etc:

Draw 1 appears to be the coffin box with only 3 wins from 97 races with middle boxes (particularly 4, 6 and 7) looking particularly favourable. What appears to be more noticeable are the successes of the higher draws in larger fields. More surprising is that 50% of the successes came over the minimum trip (0.64) of 5f.

Broken down by trip and draw:

At this stage it is hard to make a case for any distinct draw bias other than to state that the longer the trip, the more any potential bias is being negated. I would suggest that the two wins from stall 2 over 2 miles is coincidence rather than framing a bias. If Fridays meeting is a sign of things to come, we can look forward to a bias free Wolverhampton with stalls 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 all having a success and further damning of stall 1 which I will be keen to avoid at present. Saturday’s meeting looked decidedly different with 2, 7, 8, 7, 2, 7, 7, 4 providing the winners.

From a time perspective, it won’t be until we have some 4yo+ times that we can tightened up the standards and get a better comparison, but we are currently recording time faster than the old standard. This is partly due to the better quality of races during this time of year and no doubt the larger and more competitive fields are playing a part. 

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 27th September 2014

27th September 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:30 toteplacepot Win Without Backing A Winner Claiming Stakes Cl6 5f20y
100.3%	*	Ben Hall
100.2%		Desert Strike	71
99.6%		Peace Seeker	69
98.9%		Dark Lane	68
98.3%		Fitz Flyer
98.1%		Monty Fay	56				❾
98.0%		Profile Star	71

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 26th September 2014

26th September 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:45 Bet toteplacepot Handicap (Tapeta) Cl6 1m141y
101.2%	*	Abigails Angel
100.0%		Appyjack	55
99.4%		Eastward Ho	54	99.2%	(1)
98.8%		Evacusafe Lady	53	98.8%	(1)
98.6%		Ding Ding
97.8%		Pipers Piping	65
97.8%		Thomas Blossom
97.8%		Bajan Story
96.0%		Indus Valley
95.5%		Severn Crossing
		Bosstime
		Yawail
		Glasgon					❺

Dundalk All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Friday 26th September 2014

26th September 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Auction Maiden 6f
		Indian Tomahawk
		Mattydillon
		Ningxai
		Our Man Phil
		Sors
		Rapid Eye
		Extreme Appeal
		William Ashford
		Belezza Oscura
		Broadfield Puddle
		Ginger Muffin
		Invincible Missile
		Ostatnia
		Red Ivy
		Expreso Brasileiro
		Not A Bad Oul Day

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 25th September 2014

25th September 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Visit And Dine In The Panoramic Maiden Auction Stakes Cl6 6f
97.2%	*	Saint Honore
95.1%		Paloma Dancer					❶
		Captain Marmalade
		Caught On The Bid					❶
		Pomme De Guerre					❶
		Mountain Rescue					❷
		Machiavelian Storm					❶
		Blackadder					❶
		Catakanta
		Celtic Ava
		Viva Madiba					❶
		Closing					❶

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Wednesday 24th September 2014

24th September 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:50 BetBright Mobile Maiden Stakes Cl5 6f
99.4%	*	Field Game					❷
96.4%		Tangramm					❶
96.4%		Junior Ben					❶
		Chevallier					❶
		John Joiner
		You´re Cool					❷
		Equita					❶
		Fligaz
		Jellwa					❸
		Star Fire					❶

Lingfield Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Tuesday 23rd September 2014

23rd September 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:20 188bet Nursery Handicap Cl5 5f6y
98.1%		Arlecchino´s Leap	63				❶
98.0%	*	Zipedeedodah		98.0%	(1)
97.6%		Stinky Socks					❶
97.3%		Dolorous
96.8%		Ivors Rebel
95.8%		Amber Crystal					❶
95.8%		Just Because
		Able Spirit					❶
		Oriental Splendour					❶
		Crikey					❷

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Monday 22nd September 2014

22nd September 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
2:10 BetVictor.com/British Stallion Stud EBF Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m2f
99.7%	*	Framley Garth
99.4%		Forza Blacky
96.2%		Directional
		Classic Villager
		Danegeld					❶
		Deeper Magic
		Game Show					❶
		Jolie De Vivre
		Mister Rockandroll					❶
		Who´Sthedaddy
		Sheila Belle

Wolverhampton All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Saturday 20th September 2014

20th September 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:50 Win Big With The totejackpot Handicap (Tapeta) Cl6 5f20y
100.0%	*	China Excels	47	99.6%	(1)
99.4%		Lucky Mark	58	99.6%	(1)
99.0%		Aaranyow		98.7%	(1)
98.9%		First Rebellion	48
98.7%		Your Gifted	57	99.1%	(2)
98.5%		Volcanic Dust	59
98.3%		Dream Sika		98.3%	(1)
97.6%		Yankee Red					❸
96.9%		Avonvalley	61	97.1%	(1)
96.4%		Danzoe	66				❸
96.0%		Saga Lout	71
		Little Briar Rose
		Rat Catcher

Why Holiday Magic and Graylyn Ruby?

Question: If selections are based upon your speed figures how do we end up with Holiday Magic and Graylyn Ruby as selections?

Selections emailed to subscribers the afternoon of 17th September 2014

Answer: As the heading they appear under suggests, the selection process also considers class and some visual assistance.

Although I choose speed as my weapon of choice you have to consider that a horse will only show its optimum speed when meeting its ideal conditions. My view is, this is not so much trip orientated (within a furlong or so) but more importantly pace. In higher class races a horse may find the pace uncomfortable and be unable to mount anything of a challenge in the closing stages. In lesser company, the horse is likely to be able to hold more in reserve. Equally a better class horse may struggle in races in lower class with a slow pace where it has been unable to utilise its higher cruising speed. Speed Figures help to decipher under what circumstances a horse is likely to produce its best.

In the case of Holiday Magic, there was no doubt that it was comfortable in this company as its LTO win suggested. This was confirmed by its previous run when bumped during its run going down by only ¾ length.

Graylyn Ruby had equally good credentials on the Speed and Class criteria, but the margin between itself and its rivals was not sufficient to warrant a selection. None the less, under Trip Handicap which is decided on its visual performance (Eye Catcher), the smooth headway made mid race over a similar trip at Lingfield Park last time on the surface looked far superior to its nearest rivals Oakbank and Dr Finley.

These selections might not rank among the bigger priced winning selections: Burn Sugar 22-1, Spiritual Star 12-1 Sweeping Up 10-1 and Prince Bishop 9-1 among others during September but I can only highlight the potential winners. Bookmakers decide the prices ;)

Kempton Park All Weather Horse Racing Speed Handicap Ratings - Thursday 18th September 2014

18th September 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight  adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions.
5:40 Book Christmas Parties On 01932 753518 Handicap Cl6 1m
100.3%		Welsh Inlet	55	99.0%	(2)
100.0%	*	Wotalad
99.4%		Greek Islands	55	100.6%	(3)		❶
99.3%		Lutine Charlie	63	98.8%	(10)
99.3%		Warbond	57	99.8%	(18)
99.2%		Rock Band					❶
99.2%		Cyflymder	63	99.4%	(1)		❶
99.0%		Bladewood Girl	57	99.6%	(8)		❶
98.7%		Squirrel Wood	54	98.2%	(3)		❶
98.4%		Divine Rule	55	99.4%	(21)
97.9%		Rochelle		97.4%	(2)
97.6%		Addikt		98.3%	(2)
97.5%		Berwin					❷
97.4%		Buzz Law
6:10 £25 Free Bet At BetVictor.com Maiden Stakes (Div I) Cl5 1m
99.9%	*	New Year´s Night					❷
99.8%		Santa Teresa					❶
99.2%		Bryant Park					❶
98.4%		Eton Dorney
97.2%		Famous Tales					❶
96.6%		Emerald Swell
96.0%		Lostintheclouds		96.0%	(1)
		Dubai Star					❶
		Duke Of Dunton
		Priors Brook					❶
		Nightlight
		Otterbridge
6:40 £25 Free Bet At BetVictor.com Maiden Stakes (Div II) Cl5 1m
101.0%	*	Cape Summit	71	99.2%	(4)
98.8%		Moonfaarid		98.8%	(1)		❶
98.6%		Fine Tune					❶
98.4%		The Steward		98.4%	(1)		❶
98.4%		Mississippi Queen
96.7%		Keeper´s Ring		96.7%	(1)		❶
95.8%		Sweet Charlie
94.4%		Majnon Fajer		96.6%	(1)
		Approaching					❷
		Satchville Flyer					❶
		Wowee
		Dubai Skyline
7:10 Download The BetVictor App Now Handicap Cl5 1m
100.3%	*	Scarlet Plum
100.0%		Madame Mirasol
99.8%		Surety		99.8%	(1)		❶
99.5%		Dream Impossible					❶
99.5%		Like A Prayer	62	99.5%	(2)		❶
99.4%		Ghosting					❶
99.2%		Holiday Magic		99.2%	(1)		❶
99.0%		Frederic		99.0%	(1)		❶
99.0%		Djinni					❶
98.8%		Kubeba		98.7%	(2)
97.6%		Lady Marl
7:40 Download The BetVictor Instabet App Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m4f
102.3%	*	Artful Rogue
101.7%	*	Rembrandt Van Rijn
101.5%		Gale Force		101.5%	(1)
100.3%		Golden Bird		100.3%	(1)		❶
97.8%		Black Label
96.7%		Tiger Stone					❶
92.7%		Mad About Harry
		Perdu					❶
		Instant Karma
		Red Inferno					❶
		Astrocat					❶
8:10 Follow @BetVictorRacing On Twitter Handicap Cl6 2m
99.8%	*	Newtown Cross	53	98.7%	(4)		❸
99.7%		Sawwala
99.6%		Superciliary	56	98.0%	(3)		❷
99.5%		Vexillum		99.9%	(1)
98.7%		Dr Finley	59	99.2%	(9)
98.0%		Oakbank	47
97.9%		Lucky Diva	53
97.4%		Archiebeau
97.2%		Bogey Hole					❸
96.9%		Boston Blue	56	98.5%	(9)
96.7%		Graylyn Ruby	57	99.6%	(5)		❸
		Spanish Fork					❸
		Flashy Star
		Paple Blessing
8:40 BetVictor.com Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier) Cl4 1m3f
102.3%		Little Buxted		101.0%	(1)
101.6%	*	Syncopate					❷
101.5%		Manomine		99.6%	(2)
100.3%		Almerzem
100.2%		Hector´s Chance	63	100.6%	(4)
100.0%		Elbereth		100.0%	(1)
99.7%		Guising
99.1%		Itsnowcato					❷
98.8%		Kastini
98.1%		Castle Combe	75	100.6%	(1)
97.8%		Thecornishcowboy		101.1%	(4)		❶
9:10 Barn Dance Christmas Parties At Kempton Handicap Cl6 6f
101.3%	*	Blue Bounty
100.7%		Maymyo	57	100.7%	(1)		❶
100.1%		Stapleford Lad	53	100.1%	(1)
99.4%		Honey Meadow	65	98.8%	(3)		❶
99.0%		Dylan´s Centenary		99.0%	(1)		❶
96.7%		Sir Percy Blakeney					❶
96.1%		Ignight		96.1%	(1)		❶
95.5%		Wedgewood Estates	56	97.5%	(3)
95.0%		Three Pips	67	95.0%	(1)
94.5%		Pieman´s Girl					❶
		Findhorn Magic					❶