VDW Ratings for Lingfield Park have now been published.

Firstly, apologies for the broken link in the previous post offering some detail and enlightenment, this has now been corrected.

I have now published tomorrows Lingfield Park card to the subscribers blog, follow the link MDB – VDW.

To put some meaning to the ratings I will use the last full All Weather card which was Kempton Park on 29^th May 2013. In an effort to have no moving goal posts other than in the case of non-runners, the first element of using the first five in the betting (6 in Handicaps) is not being used. You are free to add this element to my figures if you so wish.  

The first race at 17:55 had no ratings with unraced (on an All Weather surface) Maidens.

The 6.25 has Desert Strike, Love You Loius and Where’s Reiley as the top three with our first rating which references distance beaten in the last three races. Desert Strike, Steelcut and Love You Lois are the top three on Class. Desert Strike and Where’s Reiley are top on my speed figures before and after adjustment. N.B. In this particular race the before and after adjustments are identical for all runners but this is not always the case. Finally Where’s Reiley is top rated on the retrospective OR. This has been arrived at by taking the new OR of all horses that finished in front of each horse LTO.

Desert Strike wins at 5-1

  

There are no definitive selections in the 6:55

Again there are no definitive selections in the 7:55. As strong as Spifer looks ‘almost’ a selection, we are not looking for horse that might almost win.

In the 8:25 we have a clean sweep with Prophets Pride who becomes a selection.

Prophets Pride wins at 6-4

    

For the same reason Spifer was not a selection in the 7:55, Attraction Ticket is not a selection in the 8:55 despite going on to win at 11-4.

This has all provoke several correspondents and I will do my upmost to reply to you all over the weekend. Any further questions can be addressed to TheActuary@ymail.com. 

In search of the Holy Grail

It was some time ago that I last wrote on the subject of VDW (Click this link if youneed to be enlightened on VDW) after trialling my own interpretation of the method back in September 2012 with remarkable success (£2,948.00 profit in one day for The Actuary subscribers).

The need to re-interpret was necessary as much had changed in racing since 1981-82 when VDW penned these articles to Tony Peach the editor of Raceform Forum page.  

I explained to all those involved in September 2012, to their dissatisfaction, that more due diligence was required before we had a working method.  As my preferred test time would usually be a least a year, it could be viewed as a little premature to go live with this after just 9 months. Fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on what side of the line of caution you fall on, the following day’s results vindicated my decision.

Why now?

On the back of months of stable and very profitable results and a very pleasing strike rate, I feel comfortable in putting this forward as a finished method. There may be the odd occasion when there will be a need for a little tweak.

Changes

Having toyed with the VDW method since the 1980s, I feel well placed to make a judgement call on changing the calculations of form figures to a calculation on lengths beaten.  Let’s face it, form figures of 753 = 15 can hide some nasty surprises if the horse was beaten over 10 lengths on all of these outings!

I have also changed the calculation on winning prize money as there is no longer the disparity that once existed. What I have devised to replace this I will keep to myself for the time being but all will be revealed on the 1^st June 2013 when subscribers will have the first glimpse for the Lingfield Park card.              

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Thursday 30th May 2013

30th May 2013 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 2:20 BetVictor Jenifer Florence Thomas Handicap Cl6 1m3f106y
99.6%		Al Zein
99.0%		Unidexter
98.5%	*	Whitefall
98.4%		Halling´s Wish
98.4%		Kastini
98.3%		Nullarbor Sky
98.3%		Booktheband
98.3%		Uganda Glory
97.8%		Terpsichore
97.5%	*	Eleanor Roosevelt
97.0%		Helamis
96.5%		Rapid Rabbit Foot
94.9%		Afro
		Vandross

Has a meeting ever been abandoned due to the number of non-runners?

As today’s fields are once again decimated by non runners on the turf it is a stark reminder of the wisdom in my choice to focus all my attention on All Weather racing. Where the frustration of races taking on a different complexion with each omission is something seldom suffered to this degree!

Unlike yesterday I feel spoilt for choice in regard to the horse I would like to put forward for your consideration today and finally opted for Lingfield Park’s lucky last. 

In my opinion, the most consistent horse in the race, if not one of the most consistent horse on the All Weather, my pin has pointed to COPPERWOOD. With those I fear most in the race appearing not to be at their best and the level of consistency COPPERWOOD has shown over today’s C&D, 5-1 is a reasonable price.

For a horse that has been round the block, the jockey booking is also notable with Adam Kirby sitting on the horse for the first time and not one of the usual jockeys of choice for the stable.

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Wednesday 29th May 2013

29th May 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 5:55 Conor Maynard Live At Kempton 14.09.13 Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 5f
		Costa Filey
		Flying Bear				❷
		Hostile Takeover				❶
		A Childs Dream
		Jalebi				❷

28-1 Kinda selection!

It is hard to pin my colours to the mast of anything outside of the two races with subscriber’s selections on tonight’s Kempton Park card. In an attempt to find some value I have a tentative selection in the 18:55.

There is no questioning the current level of form offered by head of the market Duke Of Destiny but I don’t feel that the current odds of around 2-1 and 7-1 bar are justifiable.

The horse that has taken my eye is KINDIA currently trading as high as 25-1. Remarkably lightly raced for a 5yo and yet to race over this C&D, also yet to race in Class 6 company, now racing of an official mark of 62 from a high of 81.

Last time out KINDIA was dropped to the back of the field under Seb Sanders and clearly wanted to go faster as it fought for its head from the stalls for the length of the back straight. A short burst of speed saw KINDIA put in to a challenging position before staying on under a hand and heels ride.

I repeat that this is a tentative selection based upon the facts above and today’s trip looking more favourable than last time out based upon its one win in France over 9 furlongs.  

Lingfield Park Speed Figures - Tuesday 28th May 2013

28th May 2013 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 5:50 British Stallion Studs Supporting British Racing EBF Maiden Fillies´ Stakes Cl5 6f
95.9%	*	Queen Of The Tarts
		Amontillado
		Anya´s Angel
		Atheera
		Dancealot
		Joyeuse
		Pieman´s Girl
		Prisca
		Who Splashed Me

Mo to mow them down at Lingfield Park on Tuesday

If tomorrows Lingfield Park 6:20 was on the All Weather and not turf I would be all over Sulis Minereva like a rash in this company. Instead my pick outside of those provided to subscribers runs in the 8:20.

Ignoring the last two attempts over hurdles where it was soundly beaten on both occasions, the return here over 2 miles looks like good placement of MOHANAD by Philip Hide.

MOHANAD’s last run on the flat was here at Lingfield Park over an inadequate 13 furlongs which is endorsed by three of its four wins coming over Tuesdays trip and surface.  Over 13 furlong MOHANAD attempted to make good use of its stamina leading the field until the final furlong beaten by 3 lengths by two horses with official ratings of 80.

With nothing of that ilk here, over the right trip, on the right surface I am expecting MOHANAD to win with a bit in hand.

Haydock Parks short comings cost Bergin 28 days!

I have little time for a jockey that fails to ride a horse out to the winning line but have some sympathy when it is hard to distinguish where the winning line is.

  

My immediate response to yesterdays David Bergin incident in the Haydock Park 14:10 was sympathetic. As Channel 4 showed a re-run of the race I was quizzical as to when Bergin had dropped his hands as I had also assumed that the ½ furlong pole was the winning line.

If I can make that mistake from the comfort of my living room it must be a whole lot easier a mistake to make in the heat of battle on the racecourse.

As the race continued, like David Bergin I became aware that the race was still to be won but only by the continued vigorous urging's of Robert Tart on Albaqaa who was alongside Bergin’s Classic Calori.

As they flashed past the post together the one thing that became abundantly clear is that the ½ furlong pole looked far more visibly prominent than the winning pole, with only a mowed strip of grass and a headless pole to set them apart. A strip of grass that is probably hard to distinguish when travelling at 35 miles an hour on the back of a race horse.

David Bergin got his entry level 28 days for his failure to ride out to the line but the real failure in my opinion is Haydock Park not making the finishing line easily distinguishable. Hopefully something they will rectify in light of this event.        

Choking on my cornflakes

I nearly choked on my cornflakes yesterday morning reading through a few emails on my IPod, one of which was a ATR Tracker Notification.

For those of you not familiar with the ATR Tracker, it allows you to make a comment on individual horses and then sends you a notification on any subsequent runs.

The horse I had noted was Villa Royale and here is the comment to the letter that I had made on 5th December 2011.

Curious ride from Eddie Ahern not riding the horse out when in contention and went down by a small margin.

Eddie and Villa Royale never met again in eight subsequent runs. I cant imagine why! However I do know that they are unlikely to meet again for the foreseeable future.

Constant Dream still a bit of a nightmare!

Being more resilient than most when shrugging of losers I am surprised to find that a race from Mondays Southwell card is still playing on my mind. Four days have lapsed since and even Wednesday’s very profitable day hasn't removed the feeling that something needs to be addressed in the Sport of Kings.

The race in question was the Southwell 16:00 where I had provided subscribers with Constant Dream as a selection the evening before at 11-1. The weight of market support saw Constant Dream vying for favouritism at various stages during the morning and I am sure that this would be the horse that bookmakers wanted beaten.

As they swung off the last bend market rival Hidden Asset ridden by A Mullen, intentionally, in my opinion tightened up Constant Dream who was prominent enough to be in Mullen’s peripheral vision at minimum. Not so much as a look over the shoulder by Mullen as this would have only acted as proof of his awareness.

Hidden Asset then faded in the straight to be a poor third while Constant Dream after regaining its momentum chased home the winner Fossa going down by ¾ length. There was no doubt that the momentum lost cost Constant Dream far more than ¾ length and on that basis believe that the selection would have won.

Here lies the problem: If Mullen had been found guilty of reckless riding he would face a couple of day’s suspension, and as the horse hampered finished in front of the horse that caused the interference the result would stand. The issue I have is that jockeys can ride with reckless abandon knowing that in the vast majority of cases the finishing order will remain unaltered regardless of the means used to achieve their position.

I am not suggesting that bookmakers might ask favours of jockeys to hinder a rival but the rules of racing as they stand would allow for it. In this case it was probably no more than Mullen trying to get a march on a market rival by intentionally hindering its progress which many might view as tactically astute. I ask you to look at the picture in this article, bearing in mind that Constant Dream was little more than a head behind Hidden Asset at the time of the interference and reassess! (G.Lee - Constant Dream - light blue and black)

Me, I would rather adopt rules similar to those in operation in America where the horse causing the interference is automatically thrown out. This would add to the safety of the sport, help to stop any behind the scenes malpractices and we would see fairer results to races.

Is 10 years long enough for Eddie Ahern?

With the news that Jockey Eddie Ahern has been banned for 10 years after being found guilty of breaching three British Horse Racing Authority rules. I am asking myself that if there is no shadow of doubt over his guilt is 10 years long enough.

As two of the horses in question carried my money it is hard to take a sympathetic view and I feel that if you bring the sport that provides your livelihood in to disrepute with a contemptuous disregard to the consequences being warned off for life is a more fitting punishment!

Ahern was found guilty of conspiring to commit a corrupt or fraudulent practice, intentionally failing to ensure a horse was ridden on its merits and of passing information for reward. Former footballer turned owner Neil Clement was banned for 15 years.

Eddie Ahern intends to appeal against the BHA's findings In a statement, the 35-year-old's solicitor said: "Eddie Ahern is absolutely devastated by the BHA panel's findings. He did not breach the rules of racing as found by the panel or at all and he will be appealing both the findings as well as the very harsh penalties imposed on him."

Ex-Footballer Neil Clement was also found guilty of conspiring to commit a corrupt or fraudulent practice, placing a lay bet on a horse which he then owned and failure to provide phone records to the inquiry. He was also fined £3,000 for the offences.

Ahern was charged with conspiring to commit a corrupt practice relating to the 'laying' of five horses between September 2010 and February 2011. He was also found guilty of preventing his ride Judgethemoment from obtaining the best possible position at Lingfield in 2011.

Clement was found guilty of breaching rules relating to the five Ahern races, with the jockey believed to have passed on information for the ex-footballer to use for lay betting. The former Baggies defender was also found guilty of the laying of Hindu Kush, which he then owned, when the horse finished last out of six runners at Kempton in February 2011.

Adam Brickell, the BHA's director of integrity, legal and risk, said: "The clear message from this, and other cases heard in the last 18 months, should be that the BHA is better equipped than ever at pinpointing and prosecuting malpractice. This investigation was another landmark in terms of our intelligence and evidence gathering capabilities as it was the first occasion on which we have received assistance from a spread betting company to bring a successful prosecution."

Former registered owner Michael Turl, who admitted conspiring with Clement and/or others to commit a corrupt or fraudulent practice, was disqualified in April for two years and fined £10,000  in connection with the laying of Stoneacre Gareth in March 2011.

James Clutterbuck, son of and assistant to Newmarket trainer Ken Clutterbuck, was handed a 30-month disqualification in April  after also admitting to conspiring with Clement.

Unlicensed individuals Martin Raymond and Paul Hill were charged in relation to the Stoneacre Gareth race but were cleared of conspiring to commit a corrupt or fraudulent practice.

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Wednesday 22nd May 2013

22nd May 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 6:00 £200 Free Bets At Betdaq Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m2f
101.6%		Velvetina
101.2%		Punditry	98.5%	(2)		❶
99.1%	*	Loved One				❶
99.0%		Money Talks				❶
98.7%		Atlantis City				❸
98.6%		Jareeda
97.8%		Fenton
97.6%		Mrs Mann				❶
97.1%		Solvanna	97.1%	(1)		❶
92.4%		We´Re In The Red
		Brave Helios				❶
		Parker Ridge
		Pursivere
		Violet Dancer				❶

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Wednesday 22nd May 2013

22nd May 2013 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 2:00 Mail Publisher Solutions Handicap Cl6 1m3f106y
101.1%		El Libertador				❶
100.7%		Mr Lando
100.6%		Uncle Roger				❷
100.1%		Glens Wobbly
100.1%		Iguacu				❶
99.9%		Minority Interest				❶
99.8%		Notabadgirl
99.8%		The Yank
99.6%		Irons On Fire				❶
99.6%	*	Astroscarlet				❷
99.2%		Sassi Sioux
98.4%		Mariet				❶
96.4%		Major Buckley				❷
94.5%		Lindsay´s Dream				❶

Southwell All Weather Speed Figures - Wednesday 22nd May 2013

22nd May 2013 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 1:50 £25 Free Bet At BetVictor.com Handicap (Div I) Cl6 7f
100.3%		Just Five	98.6%	(5)
100.2%		Jebel Tara	100.4%	(1)
98.9%		Master Of Song	97.6%	(1)		❸
98.8%		Heidi´s Delight				❷
98.5%		Chez Vrony	98.5%	(2)		❶
98.3%		Mucky Molly	98.8%	(4)		❶
98.2%		Upper Lambourn	98.9%	(2)		❶
98.1%	*	Jackie Love	98.1%	(1)		❶
97.4%		Captain Cavallo
95.9%		Tenancy	97.7%	(11)		❶
95.0%		Mistress Shy
94.3%		Visions Of Johanna				❷
93.6%		Elusive Warrior	99.3%	(35)		❶

Waiting for the next All Weather meeting and three turn up together!

Well two and a half to be precise. After much deliberation in where to stick The Actuary pin today while avoiding the race with subscribers selections in, I have opted to put forward one at each of today’s All Weather meetings for your deliberation.

  

Starting at Southwell, and in particular the 4:20. I won’t throw in too many clichés like ‘trappie little race’ but it would be easy to make claims for half the field here and The Lock Master makes obvious appeal, but what has taken my eye is a horse yet to try the surface.

HALLING DANCER currently trading at 16-1 (Coral) has been pushed up in class in each of its three previous races 14/14 in October 2012 btn 15 ½ lengths in a Class 5, 14/16 in April 2013 beaten 23 lengths in a Class 4 and then 3/8 beaten ¾ length in a Class 3 with horses in the mid 80’s behind it and no question marks on a sire of Halling taking to the surface. I would be hopeful of a big run at a big price.

Finding something outside of the race selections sent to subscribers on the Lingfield Park card was a challenge and I have opted to put up SIR MIKE in the 5:30. I would have liked to have got this posted in time for you to take advantage of the 5-1 opening price but we are now faced with a price which has now halved.

This is the easiest opportunity SIR MIKE has had in recent outings and there is no surprise in the drop back in trip after failing to get home over 9f last time out after travelling well throughout the contest. Whether there is any value at taking 5-2 on a horse that is a 11 race maiden but I wouldn't back against it.

And finally we come to Kempton Park and focus on the last race of the card at 9:00. With Pour La Victoire taken out earlier this morning the horse that has taken my eye is BEAUCHAMP SUNSET currently trading at 22-1 for its first run in a Handicap.

With what looks like woeful form after running in three Class 5 Maiden races over sprint distances BEAUCHAMP SUNSET find itself in a Class 6 1 mile Handicap. Bred for middle distances, dropped in class and with Nicole Nordblad in the plate I am expecting this horse to lead pillar to post.    

Southwell All Weather Speed Figures - Monday 20th May 2013

19th May 2013 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 2:30 Follow Us On Twitter @BetVictorRacing Amateur Riders´ Classified Claiming Stakes Cl6 1m6f
103.1%	*	Scribe	99.6%	(1)
101.8%		Dontpaytheferryman	98.3%	(1)
101.3%		Activate
97.8%		Bubbly Braveheart				❷
95.6%		Turjuman	96.6%	(1)
92.0%		Usquaebach
		Barnacle
		Underwritten

One to Follow at Southwell take two!

Having had reservations over the trip on backing last time (SEE ARTICLE), this time the reservation come in the form of the jockey. If none of Alan McCabe’s usually choice of jockey were present the reservations would not be so great. Robert Winston appears out of favour with the stable of late with Andrew Mullen getting the pick of the McCabe rides.

Mullen rides the favourite and we have 7lb claimer Aaron Jones taking the ride on FOLLOW THE FLAG in Southwells’ 3:30. Stepped up to a more favourable 11 furlongs after being outpaced early and closing to a 4 length fourth over 1 mile I am hopeful that at 14-1 FOLLOW THE FLAG can at least make the frame at minimum.

Looking for a good Lay!

I feel compelled to interrupt my little break after a busy schedule to respond to several emails that have taken my last post a little too literally.

Although I made the sweeping statement of ‘laying ALL favourites’  I went on to qualified the statement with ‘to capitalize further we have the tools and data available today to refine this further’ and I had suggested that by using other criteria and a little imagination you could find angles to exploit.  

To take things a little further in the hope I can vindicate what was previously written, it would be reasonable to assume the more competitive the race the more likely we are to get a return. It is commonly accepted that Handicaps are the most competitive race type so focusing our attention there will go a long way in putting the odds in our favour.

Of course there are some non-competitive Handicaps so a rule of thumb way of assessing the competitive

nature of a race can be made from the prices on offer. In a 10 horse race the true odds or chances of any horse should be 9-1. By taking account of the number of horses that fall below that price we can assess how competitive the race is.

Here are a few examples taken at random from today’s Handicaps to get you in the swing:

•         LUDLOW 16:05 8 RUNNERS - 1 HORSE BELOW 7-1 = 8/1
•        LUDLOW 16:40 8 RUNNERS – 5 HORSES BELOW 7-1 = 8/5 this is a competitive race and I would be happy to lay the favourite.
•       NEWMARKET 15:55 13 RUNNERS – 6 HORSES BELOW 12-1 = 13/6 not as competitive as 16:40 LUDLOW and a debatable lay dependant on the price of the favourite and the likely liability!

This is just a simple idea and quick to execute. I would suggest using bookmakers pricing on Oddschecker or similar sites so as not to be continually scanning up and down Betfair as the prices fluctuate in real-time. I emphasise this is just a simple idea and I am sure that with a little imagination there are many more angles you can devise for yourselves when it comes to laying.

What doesn’t work can be as profitable as what does work!

As we have a day of rest today after the success of 2 from 3 subscriber’s selections yesterday I thought I would provide a little food for thought today!

Prior to the option of betting exchanges and our ability to lay a horse to lose, we all became aware of those methods that didn’t work if you were looking for long term profits from Horse Racing.

What the introduction of the betting exchanges has allowed us to do is reverse ‘what doesn't work’ in the form of a lay bet to make a profit.

Example:

It is commonly accepted that favourites win 30% of races and that backing favourites will result in a long term lose. It therefore makes sense that if you laid all favourites, in the long term you will profit.

To capitalize further we have the tools and data available today to refine this further with draw analysis, horse running style, going and a host of other criteria to put our odds well above 70% of those failing favourites.

If you have a working winning finding formula you back. If you have a losing winner finding formula don’t throw it out with the rubbish. Simply lay!