THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 26th March KEMPTON PARK- 27th March WOLVERHAMPTON- 29th March WOLVERHAMPTON - 30th March LINGFIELD PARK, KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 31st March WOLVERHAMPTON & CHELMSFORD CITY - 1ST aPRIL LINGFIELD PARK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 2nd April KEMPTON PARK -

VDW Ratings for Lingfield Park have now been published.

Firstly, apologies for the broken link in the previous post offering some detail and enlightenment, this has now been corrected.

I have now published tomorrows Lingfield Park card to the subscribers blog, follow the link MDB – VDW.

To put some meaning to the ratings I will use the last full All Weather card which was Kempton Park on 29th May 2013. In an effort to have no moving goal posts other than in the case of non-runners, the first element of using the first five in the betting (6 in Handicaps) is not being used. You are free to add this element to my figures if you so wish.  

The first race at 17:55 had no ratings with unraced (on an All Weather surface) Maidens.


The 6.25 has Desert Strike, Love You Loius and Where’s Reiley as the top three with our first rating which references distance beaten in the last three races. Desert Strike, Steelcut and Love You Lois are the top three on Class. Desert Strike and Where’s Reiley are top on my speed figures before and after adjustment. N.B. In this particular race the before and after adjustments are identical for all runners but this is not always the case. Finally Where’s Reiley is top rated on the retrospective OR. This has been arrived at by taking the new OR of all horses that finished in front of each horse LTO.

Desert Strike wins at 5-1
  


There are no definitive selections in the 6:55


Again there are no definitive selections in the 7:55. As strong as Spifer looks ‘almost’ a selection, we are not looking for horse that might almost win.


In the 8:25 we have a clean sweep with Prophets Pride who becomes a selection.

Prophets Pride wins at 6-4

    
For the same reason Spifer was not a selection in the 7:55, Attraction Ticket is not a selection in the 8:55 despite going on to win at 11-4.


This has all provoke several correspondents and I will do my upmost to reply to you all over the weekend. Any further questions can be addressed to TheActuary@ymail.com. 

Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Friday, May 31, 2013

VDW Ratings for Lingfield Park have now been published.

Firstly, apologies for the broken link in the previous post offering some detail and enlightenment, this has now been corrected.

I have now published tomorrows Lingfield Park card to the subscribers blog, follow the link MDB – VDW.

To put some meaning to the ratings I will use the last full All Weather card which was Kempton Park on 29th May 2013. In an effort to have no moving goal posts other than in the case of non-runners, the first element of using the first five in the betting (6 in Handicaps) is not being used. You are free to add this element to my figures if you so wish.  

The first race at 17:55 had no ratings with unraced (on an All Weather surface) Maidens.


The 6.25 has Desert Strike, Love You Loius and Where’s Reiley as the top three with our first rating which references distance beaten in the last three races. Desert Strike, Steelcut and Love You Lois are the top three on Class. Desert Strike and Where’s Reiley are top on my speed figures before and after adjustment. N.B. In this particular race the before and after adjustments are identical for all runners but this is not always the case. Finally Where’s Reiley is top rated on the retrospective OR. This has been arrived at by taking the new OR of all horses that finished in front of each horse LTO.

Desert Strike wins at 5-1
  


There are no definitive selections in the 6:55


Again there are no definitive selections in the 7:55. As strong as Spifer looks ‘almost’ a selection, we are not looking for horse that might almost win.


In the 8:25 we have a clean sweep with Prophets Pride who becomes a selection.

Prophets Pride wins at 6-4

    
For the same reason Spifer was not a selection in the 7:55, Attraction Ticket is not a selection in the 8:55 despite going on to win at 11-4.


This has all provoke several correspondents and I will do my upmost to reply to you all over the weekend. Any further questions can be addressed to TheActuary@ymail.com.