THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 26th March KEMPTON PARK- 27th March WOLVERHAMPTON- 29th March WOLVERHAMPTON - 30th March LINGFIELD PARK, KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 31st March WOLVERHAMPTON & CHELMSFORD CITY - 1ST aPRIL LINGFIELD PARK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 2nd April KEMPTON PARK -

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips - Taking a different view


After a great start to the week we have seen a decline in fortunes as the week draws to an end. We will be ending the week in profit but it was clear to see how much more speculative selections became when judged against the competitiveness of the races we played in.

Before I elaborate further let me make it clear that a top rating is NOT a pre-requisite for any of the four selection methods.

Firstly, let’s take look at a few of those races where we were successful in a graphical format.



Not only is there significant daylight between the top rated and second rated but there is little to no competitive depth in any of these races.  I appreciate that the winners were taken at 1-5, 7-4 & 4-5 and all returned somewhat shorter but just to dispel any fears on prices...

   
4 length winner Murcar returned at 16-1 and was available at higher but we are digressing from the point I would like to make.

If we now look at some of this week’s failures in the same format:




Selections; Lastkingofscotland, One Way Or Another and Hittin’The Skids were in much more competitive races and I could show several similar examples. This not to say these races should be given a wide birth as we did find winners in races with a similar make-up,  while others failed by differing degrees as shown above.

When looking for opportunities outside of The Actuary HorseRacing Tips which are posted to your inbox each evening, viewing the figures from this perspective should be the first consideration, where the top rated = 100% and the bottom rated = 0% will give you a measurement that can be used in consideration of value or for use with the Kelly Criterion.

Taking this view may have delivered....

Stormy Morning won at 10-1


Murcar as previously discussed won at 16-1

Which leads us nicely on to consider tomorrow’s cards where you can draw your own conclusions.......








Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Saturday, January 05, 2013

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips - Taking a different view


After a great start to the week we have seen a decline in fortunes as the week draws to an end. We will be ending the week in profit but it was clear to see how much more speculative selections became when judged against the competitiveness of the races we played in.

Before I elaborate further let me make it clear that a top rating is NOT a pre-requisite for any of the four selection methods.

Firstly, let’s take look at a few of those races where we were successful in a graphical format.



Not only is there significant daylight between the top rated and second rated but there is little to no competitive depth in any of these races.  I appreciate that the winners were taken at 1-5, 7-4 & 4-5 and all returned somewhat shorter but just to dispel any fears on prices...

   
4 length winner Murcar returned at 16-1 and was available at higher but we are digressing from the point I would like to make.

If we now look at some of this week’s failures in the same format:




Selections; Lastkingofscotland, One Way Or Another and Hittin’The Skids were in much more competitive races and I could show several similar examples. This not to say these races should be given a wide birth as we did find winners in races with a similar make-up,  while others failed by differing degrees as shown above.

When looking for opportunities outside of The Actuary HorseRacing Tips which are posted to your inbox each evening, viewing the figures from this perspective should be the first consideration, where the top rated = 100% and the bottom rated = 0% will give you a measurement that can be used in consideration of value or for use with the Kelly Criterion.

Taking this view may have delivered....

Stormy Morning won at 10-1


Murcar as previously discussed won at 16-1

Which leads us nicely on to consider tomorrow’s cards where you can draw your own conclusions.......