After a great start to the week we have seen a decline in
fortunes as the week draws to an end. We will be ending the week in profit but it
was clear to see how much more speculative selections became when judged
against the competitiveness of the races we played in.
Before I elaborate further let me make it clear that a top
rating is NOT a pre-requisite for any of the four selection methods.
Firstly, let’s take look at a few of those races where we
were successful in a graphical format.
Not only is there significant daylight between the top rated
and second rated but there is little to no competitive depth in any of these
races. I appreciate that the winners
were taken at 1-5, 7-4 & 4-5 and all returned somewhat shorter but just to
dispel any fears on prices...
4 length winner Murcar returned at 16-1 and was available at
higher but we are digressing from the point I would like to make.
If we now look at some of this week’s failures in the same
format:
Selections; Lastkingofscotland, One Way Or Another and
Hittin’The Skids were in much more competitive races and I could show several similar
examples. This not to say these races should be given a wide birth as we did
find winners in races with a similar make-up, while others failed by differing degrees as shown
above.
When looking for opportunities outside of The Actuary HorseRacing Tips which are posted to your inbox each evening, viewing the figures
from this perspective should be the first consideration, where the top rated =
100% and the bottom rated = 0% will give you a measurement that can
be used in consideration of value or for use with the Kelly Criterion.
Taking this view may have delivered....
Stormy Morning won at 10-1
Murcar as previously discussed won at 16-1
Which leads us nicely on to consider tomorrow’s cards where
you can draw your own conclusions.......
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