The Actuary 20-1 selection Toymaker takes Wolverhampton 5:00

When The Actuary Horse Racing Tips emailed selections to subscribers last night I am sure there were moans of derision on viewing three ‘Speed and Class’ selections for Wolverhampton's 5:00

With the field down to 7 we were still able to back all three to level stakes for a profit so hopefully there were few who decided to leave the race alone.

James Sullivan drives The Actuary 20-1 'Speed and Class' selection Toymaker to the front

And for those that showed the conviction to follow the instruction a massive result and payday as one of the three, 20-1 shot Toymaker took the race by a comfortable 1.1/4 lengths being chased up by the second of the three selections One Way Or Another at 4-1.   

      

Kempton and Lingfield both set to race

Todays racing on the all-weather tracks at both Kempton and Lingfield is set to go ahead.

Plans for an inspection at Kempton were scrapped with the racing set to go ahead on ground described as standard to slow. It will be dry and cloudy there with a similar forecast for Lingfield where temperatures are above freezing.

Wolverhampton Horse Racing Tips - Monday 21st January 2013

21st January 2013 Wolverhampton

2:35 Exclusive Free Bets At bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Cl5 5f20y
101.2% * Strong Man 3RD 9-4
100.8% Passionada 100.8% (1)
100.5% Cardinal 1ST 6-1
99.7% Master Of Disguise 100.1% (4)
99.5% No Mean Trick 99.5% (6)
98.8% You´relikemefrank 98.1% (9)
98.7% Shawkantango 97.8% (13)
98.7% Crimson Queen 98.1% (5)
98.6% Desert Strike 99.9% (13) 2ND 14-1

3:05 coral.co.uk Handicap Cl5 1m5f194y
101.3% Volcanic Jack
101.2% Rapid Heat Lad 1ST 13-2
99.7% Priors Gold 94.6% (1)
99.5% * Sohcahtoa 99.4% (1)
99.1% Mediterranean Sea 99.1% (1)
99.1% Alborz 2ND 9-2
98.2% Thundering Home 99.1% (1) 3RD 13-2
97.7% All The Winds

3:35 Get The Inside Track At bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Cl6 7f32y
98.4% Maypole Joe 1ST 4-1
98.1% Frans Hals 3RD 7-1
98.0% Devout
98.0% Annalova
97.7% Armada Bay 98.2% (1) 2ND 10-1
97.4% * Chelsea Grey
97.2% Firey Sally
97.0% Jonny Wombat
96.4% Fat Bottom Girl 96.4% (1)

4:05 Winners Love bookmakers.co.uk Selling Stakes Cl6 1m141y
100.4% * Red Somerset 100.6% (10) 1ST EVENS
100.0% Jack Who´s He 100.7% (1) 2ND 11-10
99.5% Faithful Ruler 100.0% (9) 3RD
99.2% Imprimis Tagula 99.6% (1)

4:35 Casino At coral.co.uk Handicap Cl6 1m141y
100.4% Meglio Ancora 100.5% (2) 3RD 3-1
100.2% This Ones For Eddy 100.2% (1) 2ND 13-2
99.5% Monzino 1ST 12-1
99.0% Athletic
98.3% Harvest Mist 98.9% (5)
97.7% Justcallmehandsome 99.4% (40)
92.4% Johnson´s Cat

5:05 Free Bets Galore At bookmakers.co.uk Maiden Stakes Cl5 1m1f103y
101.3% * Exning Halt 1ST 2-7
96.3% Kuraanda 96.2% (1)
Yojojo 2ND 12-1
Pullmen 3RD 4-1
Miss Chardonay
Gallant Leader

5:35 Download coral.co.uk Mobile App Handicap Cl5 1m1f103y
100.8% Honey Of A Kitten 100.7% (4)
100.8% On The Hoof 2ND 15-2
100.7% * Noble Jack 99.4% (1) 1ST 11-4
100.6% Lean On Pete 100.1% (5)
100.5% Follow The Flag 99.4% (8)
100.0% Aviso 98.7% (5)
100.0% Dakota Canyon 100.8% (2) 3RD 7-1
99.7% Standpoint 100.0% (8)
99.7% Spanish Plume 99.6% (8)
99.0% Scamperdale 99.5% (10)

Kempton Park Horse Racing Tips - Saturday 19th January 2013

19th January 2013 Kempton Park

1:45 William Hill - Download The App Fillies´ Handicap Cl5 7f
101.0% Glastonberry 101.0% (1)
100.6% * Big Sylv 1ST 11-4
100.1% Climaxfortackle 98.7% (1) 3RD 7-2
100.0% Chambles 99.1% (4)
100.0% Dancing Welcome 100.1% (5)
99.7% Amosite 2ND 12-1
98.3% Ishiamiracle 98.1% (1)

2:20 William Hill - iPad App Now Available Handicap Cl4 1m
101.9% * Angelic Upstart 99.6% (4)
101.7% Light From Mars 101.1% (1) 3RD 3-1
101.3% Toga Tiger 98.8% (1) 1ST 4-1
101.3% Avertis 100.7% (1)
101.0% Storm Runner 99.3% (8)
100.8% Haftohaf 100.8% (1)
99.5% Diplomatic 99.5% (6) 2ND 25-1

2:55 William Hill - iPhone, iPad, iPad Mini Handicap (London Middle Distance Qualifier) Cl3 1m3f
Gaelic Silver
102.2% * Aquilonius
101.6% Kames Park 100.7% (3)
101.5% Spifer 1ST 9-2
100.9% Greylami 102.3% (4) 2ND 8-1
99.2% Fluctuate
98.7% Noble Silk 3RD 11-4

3:30 William Hill - No.1 Downloaded Betting App Handicap Cl6 7f
99.7% Michael´s Nook 94.9% (2)
99.3% * Rogue Reporter 99.1% (1)
99.2% Spinning Ridge 99.6% (2) 3RD 5-1
99.1% Jackie Love 98.9% (8)
98.6% Justbookies Dotnet
98.5% Dvinsky 99.9% (19)
97.9% Welsh Inlet 98.9% (2) 1ST 5-1
97.1% Katmai River 99.1% (10) 2ND 12-1
97.0% Mambo Spirit 99.8% (8)
96.4% Back For Tea

4:05 William Hill - iPad App Now Available Maiden Fillies´ Stakes Cl5 1m3f
99.4% Easy Life 2ND 7-1
99.3% Taming The Tweet
99.2% Gertrude Versed 1ST 4-5
98.6% Too Difficult
97.5% Narla
97.1% Lea Valley 95.0% (1)
Lascaux 3RD 10-1
Santorini Sunset

4:35 William Hill - Download App Handicap (Div I) Cl6 6f
100.3% * Valdaw 99.1% (1) 1ST 10-11
99.2% Glennten 98.8% (3)
98.8% Lord Buffhead 96.3% (1) 2ND 8-1
98.2% Brandywell Boy 99.5% (9)
98.0% Summer Sun 98.0% (1)
97.0% The Bendy Fella 95.5% (1)
96.2% Takajan 97.0% (1)
96.0% Venetias Dream 3RD 14-1

5:05 William Hill - Download App Handicap (Div II) Cl6 6f
99.6% * Whipphound 98.0% (4) 1ST 7-2
99.1% Ryedale Dancer
99.0% Dingaan 99.0% (7)
98.9% Rightcar 99.1% (8)
98.9% Slatey Hen 99.3% (5)
98.8% Jonnie Skull
98.6% Sherjawy 99.7% (19) 3RD 10-1
98.5% Fantasy Fighter 99.3% (5)
98.2% Flying Kitty 98.5% (4)
97.9% Artful Lady 2ND 11-2

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips note the market move for Handicap debutante The Bendy Fella.

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips noted that after the decimation of yesterday and today’s racing fixtures, we are left with a fairly uninspiring card at Kempton Park which if nothing else gives rise to hope we will be racing there again tomorrow.

With our highest price selection at 9-1 it is noticeable that that there has been little in the way of major movement in the Kempton Park markets with a nibble here and a nibble there. Even where a major contender has been withdrawn the prices have remained fairly static with the exception of one race.

What has taken my eye is Handicap debutant The Bendy Fella who has shortened from an opening show of 20-1 last night with Bet365 and is generally half the price. Befair looks to be the best option hovering around 13.5.

In a race where most are exposed Class 6 performers, the Bendy Fella is a 5yo with only three runs in Class 5 Maidens back in March 2012 to its name. This would suggest that Mark Usher felt there was something worth persevering with in this horse.

It is also notable that the jockey on all three of those previous runs and Mark Ushers usual poison of choice 5lb claimer Lee Newnes finds himself riding Sylvester Kirks Glennten while George Baker takes the ride on The Bendy Fella.
 

      

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips Top Rated wins opener

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips top speed rating M J Woodward (9-2) available at 8-1 during the day held on gamely to repel all to take the 14:20 Wolverhampton.

      

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips Tale of Two Meetings

The Actuary Horse Racing tips saw a remarkable contrast with the figures and results from Wolverhampton and Kempton Park yesterday (7^th January 2013)

Wolverhampton played second best in more ways than one after a promising start with Actuary Top Rated Spark of Genius (13-8) and One Way Or Another (7-4) taking the first two races. We were then plagued by a host of placed horses with Arabian Flight (2^nd) Landown Littlerock (3^rd) Liberty Love (2^nd) Climaxfortackle (2^nd) and Rapscallion Deep (2^nd)

Meanwhile, the afternoon was also playing host to a Kempton Park afternoon fixture where we were blessed with a rare phenomenon of four horses running all having exceeded the top rated over C&D.

The meeting started with a blank followed by top rated Compton Rainbow (9-2) winning before we came to the four races of note.









Smilewithiseyes (9-4) winning, Dark Lane (9-4) winning, Moderator running moderate to poor and Tinkerbell Will (14-1) finishing second in a storming finish. This is without a doubt a desirable trait, so do keep your eye out for future runners with a similar make-up.

The meeting culminating in Actuary Top Rated Lastkingofscotland (4-6) winning in what looked an interesting race if the previous days winner Khawatim had lined-up

From a quality of participants perspective today at Wolverhampton is a sexier day but Cosmic Halo is the nearest I can find in meeting the above criteria but Honoured is rated a little to close for comfort.

      

 

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips - Taking a different view

After a great start to the week we have seen a decline in fortunes as the week draws to an end. We will be ending the week in profit but it was clear to see how much more speculative selections became when judged against the competitiveness of the races we played in.

Before I elaborate further let me make it clear that a top rating is NOT a pre-requisite for any of the four selection methods.

Firstly, let’s take look at a few of those races where we were successful in a graphical format.

Not only is there significant daylight between the top rated and second rated but there is little to no competitive depth in any of these races.  I appreciate that the winners were taken at 1-5, 7-4 & 4-5 and all returned somewhat shorter but just to dispel any fears on prices...

   

4 length winner Murcar returned at 16-1 and was available at higher but we are digressing from the point I would like to make.

If we now look at some of this week’s failures in the same format:

Selections; Lastkingofscotland, One Way Or Another and Hittin’The Skids were in much more competitive races and I could show several similar examples. This not to say these races should be given a wide birth as we did find winners in races with a similar make-up,  while others failed by differing degrees as shown above.

When looking for opportunities outside of The Actuary HorseRacing Tips which are posted to your inbox each evening, viewing the figures from this perspective should be the first consideration, where the top rated = 100% and the bottom rated = 0% will give you a measurement that can be used in consideration of value or for use with the Kelly Criterion.

Taking this view may have delivered....

Stormy Morning won at 10-1

Murcar as previously discussed won at 16-1

Which leads us nicely on to consider tomorrow’s cards where you can draw your own conclusions.......