A Fitting end to a year that exceeded expectations!

A fitting 100% end to 2012 with two out of two from the Lingfield Park card. 2 point selection Sherinn (Evens) got the ball rolling with a 2.1/4 length success, returning at an SP of 4-6.

The final race saw our second selection Storm Runner (15-8 15p rule 4) equal the feat of our previous selection with another 2.1/4 length success returning at 4-5.

Unfortunately even with our 7-1 winning selection from yesterday we just failed to pass the +400 point profit for the year. What we have done is set the bar high to beat or repeat the success in 2013. I am up for the challenge! 

Happy New Year to you all 

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips - Timed to perfection!

With few good opportunities of any note over the Christmas period the minimum expectation from those rare forays in to the betting market is getting a run for your money and we got that in spades today.

I am referring to our first of two races of interest and the masterful ride from Adam Beschizza and  Guarda Pampa who returned at 7-1 after a massive gamble on Marco Botti’s newcomer Golden Share and sustained support for Dusty Red resulting in our selection drifting from 5-1.

Pre race, Simon Mapletoft made it quite clear that in his eyes Guarda Pampa would not be winning, shortly followed by the commentator who stated that the selection would not be able to hold on after leading from a wide draw and breaking clear by a good 10 lengths lite-up by first time blinkers.

In practice, Adam Beschizza had timed the ride to perfection and appeared to be pulling away from the field again in the closing stages.

The Actuary selection Guarda Pampa (7-1) clear of its rivals as they begin the sweep for home

You always expect these horses to come back to the field but there was something in the manner of the ride and the pace which left me hopeful that Guarda Pampa would see the race out in the style achieved. 

      

The Actuary small gift of appreciation to all subscribers

As a token of appreciation and continued support, all subscribers should check their PayPal accounts for a small Christmas gift from The Actuary.

Hopefully you will find the gift enough to fill your glasses and raise a toast to the year that was and the year that beckons for us.

We are sure to post another profitable month for December and even though we have been flat lining a little this past week I am still hopeful of reaching that 400 point profit for 2012.

I hope you all enjoy your Christmas break in whatever way you see fit :)

Feliz Navidad to you all

The Actuary: Having to playing God with the figures!

I haven’t written to the blog for awhile as there has been little to report of any consequence (until yesterday) and for those that are of the view that I only report on winning days, I would like to point out that we have continued to profit albeit in a small way.

For the record since 12^th December we have seen 18 winners from 35 selections giving us a strike rate of 51.43%. As rewarding as that may sound we have seen only another +5.39 profit!

What I would like to share with you today is how I played god with the figures yesterday!

On Wednesday 19^th December I was interested in two rides from Willie Twiston-Davies, the first aboard Pharoh Jake (12:00 Lingfield Park) and the second on Sherman McCoy (13:00 Lingfield Park). Both top rated on last time out performances. Pharoh Jake was given no run as they turned for home and was unable to extricate its self due to being caught in a pocket. A fairly insignificant event, until you become aware the horse is already entered on the following day at Kempton Park.

The ratings I published for the Kempton Park race on the following day were as follows:

The figures published for Pharoh Jake was obviously not from its last time out 5.1/2 lengths 9^th to Temple Road on the previous day. Had I published figures based upon LTO the race would have been.

As accurate as I would like the figures to be, there are times when I have to play god in order for a more sensible figure to be published. Although Pharoh Jake was not a selection for the Lingfield Park race, using the rating from its penultimate run in compiling Kemptons 7:30 made it a ‘Speed and Class’ selection, a winning ‘Speed and Class’ selection.

The same applies to Sherman McCoy who was hemmed in on the rail at a critical stage after a prominent start. I had the advantage of seeing the head on, live on the day where Sherman McCoy makes up an enormous amount of ground to finish 6^th beaten 8 lengths and should be considered on its penultimate run next time out and NOT its LTO.

Ahern to carry on riding during BHA corruption investigation

Eddie Ahern will return to action at Lingfield on Wednesday for the first time since the news broke that he is being investigated by the British Horseracing Authority and is under suspicion of a serious but unspecified breach of its rules. The Newmarket-based jockey intends to pursue a "business as usual" policy according to his agent, who nevertheless feels that Ahern has been placed in a terrible position by news of the case leaking out before the BHA has decided whether or not to pursue charges.

"I'm not very happy about it," said Gavin Horne, who has booked Ahern's rides for the past three months and hopes that trainers will not now be reluctant to use the 34-year-old. "It caught me by surprise as much as anyone." Horne was annoyed at the suggestion in a report on Saturday that the jockey had "given up" his rides at Wolverhampton the previous evening rather than face the press.

"He was signed off with flu," Horne said, "and then his only ride on Saturday was a non-runner. It was nothing to do with him giving up any rides. We're carrying on, business as usual, and he'll be at Lingfield on Wednesday."

Ahern has four booked mounts at the Surrey track, two of them trained by Sir Henry Cecil. One is the debutant Demonic, owned by Khalid Abdulla, whose racing manager, Teddy Grimthorpe, said of Ahern: "If Henry's happy to use him, we're happy to use him."

Ahern will also ride for Paul D'Arcy, whose wife, Sue, said: "He's been put in a difficult position. Innocent until proven guilty, I thought that was the general rule. He's never caused us any problems."

James Fanshawe said he was "very happy" with the work Ahern has done for him this year, winning on six of 19 rides. While Fanshawe wouldn't comment on the investigation, knowing none of the relevant facts, he added: "It's unfortunate when these things get leaked in the press. Some people always seem to take a 'no smoke without fire' view of it."

News of the investigation broke after Ahern applied for a licence to ride in India this winter, prompting the local racing authorities to check his status with the BHA. Saturday's Racing Post quoted a spokesman for the Bangalore Turf Club as saying: "We got a communication from the BHA stating that he would probably be charged with a serious offence."

The BHA refuses to comment, as is its policy on current investigations. However, it is understood that officials value their ability to trade information about cases with fellow racing authorities overseas. This is done on the understanding that any such news would not be shared with the press and the Bangalore Turf Club is likely to be reminded of that principle.

The Actuary top rates 6 from 8 at Lingfield Park - with 5-4, 8-13, 6-1, 11-8, 6-1 and 7-2

It was a memorable day at Lingfield Park today for The Actuary Horse Racing Tips and for the art of speed handicapping.

I appreciate that the first two winners on the card were not to difficult to find and both were supported accordingly. I am not sure whether even a clairvoyant could have predicted Calypso Magic or Sir Trader but the figures did the magic on the other six races with 5-4, 8-13, 6-1, 11-8, 6-1 and 7-2 top rated winners. 

Below are the figures posted up for subscribers the evening before racing.   

12th December 2012 Lingfield Park 

12:00 atrvirtualowner.com Claiming Stakes Cl6 7f
100.1% * Secret Symphony 1ST 5-4  TA 
98.5% Opus Cactus 2ND 6-1
98.1% Ilsa Lund
96.2% Sally Bruce
Lady Lunchalot 3RD 6-1
Krupskaya

12:30 Follow Us On Twitter @LingfieldPark Selling Stakes Cl6 7f
100.8% * Majuro 99.6% (3) 1ST 8-13  OTM   S+C 
99.6% Abhaath 97.1% (1) 3RD 7-1
99.3% Memphis Man 96.9% (1)
99.3% Divine Rule 99.3% (3)
98.2% The Dancing Lord
97.3% Irish Heartbeat 2ND 7-2
95.7% Prophet In A Dream 98.8% (1)
95.5% El Dececy

1:00 Marsh Green Handicap (Div I) Cl6 1m2f
100.7% * Sail Home 98.8% (4)
99.5% Lady Arabella 99.2% (2)
99.0% Mafi 99.7% (5)
98.9% Mount Abora 98.9% (1)
98.8% Thecornishcowboy 99.5% (2)
98.6% Calypso Magic 1ST 16-1
98.6% Conducting 99.3% (5) 2ND 9-2
97.8% Byrd In Hand 98.6% (4)
96.6% Saint Irene
96.4% With Hindsight 3RD 8-1

1:30 Marsh Green Handicap (Div II) Cl6 1m2f
100.4% * Zenarinda 99.7% (4) 1ST 6-1
100.4% Hawaana 99.7% (4) 3RD 4-1
100.0% Maz 
99.4% Landesherr 99.3% (1)
99.2% Wordiness 99.1% (1)
99.2% Resplendent Alpha 99.1% (5) 2ND 5-1
99.1% Ellie In The Pink 99.9% (1)
98.6% Salient
96.9% Dolly Colman
96.4% Grace And Beauty

2:00 Felbridge Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 1m2f
99.6% * Syncopate 99.6% (1) 1ST 11-8
99.4% Roe Valley 97.9% (2)
99.3% Heezararity 3RD 5-2
98.6% Grand Theft Equine 99.3% (3) 2ND 6-1
97.3% Handsome Molly
96.7% Sugar Lips
95.2% Buckley Boy 97.5% (1)
Johns Porridge
Phantom Prince
Tiny Thompson

2:30 Bryan Arthur Crawford Memorial Handicap Cl4 7f
101.7% Roy The Boy 2ND 6-4
101.2% * Prime Exhibit 
101.1% Jack Who´s He 
100.6% Piceno 99.4% (1)
100.0% Avonrose 97.1% (1)
99.9% Schoolmaster 100.2% (1)
96.3% Stir Trader 1ST 14-1
Waking Warrior 3RD

3:00 Breathe Spa At Lingfield Marriott Handicap Cl5 1m4f
101.6% Stand Guard 100.4% (1) 1ST 6-1
101.6% Miss Blink 
100.4% Sherman McCoy 99.4% (1)
99.4% Winning Spark
99.0% Port Charlotte
99.0% * Flying Trader
98.7% Focail Maith 98.6% (1) 2ND 8-1
98.4% Standpoint 98.3% (1) 3RD 8-1
97.8% Beat Route 99.8% (5)
96.1% Any Given Dream
My Guardian Angel
Ordensritter

3:30 Tandridge All-Weather "Hands And Heels" Apprentice Series Handicap (Racing Excellence Initiative) Cl6 1m
100.6% * Refreshestheparts 1ST 7-2
99.7% The New Black 3RD 16-1
99.5% Breakheart 98.9% (1)
99.3% West Side
99.1% Bloodsweatandtears 100.7% (1)
99.0% Exopuntia 99.0% (1)
98.9% Schoolboy Champ
98.7% Aquilifer 99.3% (9)
98.5% Hierarch 100.1% (3) 2ND 10-1
Captain Kendall

On the eighth day at Lingfield.......

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips racked up the winners and delivered a perfect 3 out of 3 at Lingfield Park before repeating a similar feat at Kempton Park.

Although we delivered 3 out of 3, the prices on offer still left me counting what was required to secure a profit and it was not until Kempton Park that we delivered that guarantee.

Secret Symphony (15-8) got the ball rolling and chalked up just short of two points followed by 2 point selection Majuro (Evens) taking the tally to 4 points. The third and final Lingfield selection Syncopate (7-4) gave us +5.64 points profit heading to Kempton Park where we had 6 points at stake.

At last! Kalokgathia 6 times the bridesmaid wins with ease

Whipper Snapper was first up and first down for the day before our other 2 point selection KALOKAGATHIA (EVENS). I could hear the moans of derision coming down the internet when I put the selection up last night.

With 6 x 2^nd placing in a row and the weight of our money being carried on most of those occasions, 2 points at Even money was scant reward should we be victorious.

Kalokagathia delivered and in style and I couldn't think of a more fitting winner to put us +6.64 points up with 3 selections to run, therefore guaranteeing another winning day. The question was know how much J

Next up, Ningara’s victory (7-2) took us to +10.14 points profit before Run It Twice robbed us of a point (+9.14)

The Actuary selection Mr Knightley advised overnight at 5-1 takes Kemptons 5:15

Mr Knightley (advised overnight at 5-1) rounded off the day and took us to a +14.14 points profit. +12.12 on the 12/12/12 would have been more fitting so apologies ;{)

      

On the seventh day at Lingfield........

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips got off to a flyer with the first selection Thecornishcowboy advised at 3-1 taking the opener in emphatic style. We did have to suffer a 15p rule 4 but better that than the 5-4 SP.

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips selection Thecornishcowboy advised at 3-1 turns in ahead

Unfortunately that was the end of the fun with Work Ethic passing the post third in a three way photo beaten shd, nk, and in the one race I felt quietly confident in returning the winner, having selected Swiss Cross (5-1) and Seeking Magic (4-1), only Swiss Cross gave its true running to finish second after Seeking Magic ridden by Graham Lee backed down to 6-4 took the scenic route home.

So we end the day 0.45 points down which was a little disappointing given the nature of the loss but after such a lengthy spell of success I guess a loss of 0.45 is tolerable.

We have the eight day of Lingfield to endure, sorry I meant enjoy tomorrow with Kempton joining the fray at 2:15 and the change of scenery will be a breath of fresh air.

We have 2 x 2 point selections for subscribers tomorrow one of which is sure to raise eyebrows, plus 6 x 1 point selections, so, a busy day with the emphasis more at Kempton Park.
 

      

On the sixth day of Lingfield.....

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips had little room for error today with 2 x 1 point selections and a long winning run to protect.

It is a rarity for me to be in a position where I want to criticize a Leonna Mayor ride but when our first selection, Divine Angel, was cut to the inside rail and was closing with sufficient impetus to swallow up the long time leader, there seemed to be a moment of indecision and a lack-luster effort from Leonna to push the horse out leaving me feeling robbed and a 1/2 length second.

The Actuary selection Viewpoint advised overnight at 5-1 strikes the front for a 1.1/4 length victory

The weight of expectation now fell on to the shoulders of the second of our two selections Viewpoint.  Advised at 5-1 overnight, Viewpoint got the ideal split up the rail after sitting in mid division and simply outstayed its rivals up the straight to score by 1.1/4 lengths providing The Actuary Horse Racing Tips subscribers with another day of profit.

A little busier tomorrow as we head in to day seven at Lingfield Park with 4 x 1 point selections in three races of interest.

      

On the fifth day of Lingfield........

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips delivered another day of profit. A small profit but a profit nevertheless!

Failure by our first two selections left us 2 points down with Ada Lovelace running to freely to be able to put in a challenge to winner Freddy With A Y and Dewala’s attempt to make all over a mile and a half failing.

All hopes on delivering another day of profit fell on the shoulders of 2 point selection Harry Buckle (11-10) and Jimmy Fortune.  The SP of 8-15 suggested that this was the only horse of interest after opening at 11-10 with Bet365.

The Actuary 2 point selection Harry Buckle (white blaze) advised at 11-10 strikes the front

Quite simply Harry Buckle trounced the opposition and as short as 11-10 is, if I could find this kind of bet everyday I would be forced to thank the bookmaking fraternity for their generosity.

The Lingfield marathon continues on with day 6 tomorrow with 2 x 1 point selections.

      

On the fourth day of Lingfield............

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips ends the day with honours even!

Not too dissimilar to yesterday, we started with a lack luster performance from our first selection Walter White.  We drew another parallel with yesterday's performance in having two selections in a race that provided our first winner.

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips selection Omar Khayyam and David Probert sprint away from their rivals

In Lingfield Park's 14:15, subscribers were given Elysian (4-1) and Omar Khayyam (3-1) and as they turned for home that was the order of things. The odds on favourite Hepworth chasing the front two had been given several wake-ups from Rob Havlin and we looked on for another one, two. The preference for Elysian to be victorious unfortunately did not come to fruition as the shorter price of our two selections Omar Khayyam injected a burst of speed that could not be matched to win by 2 lengths.

1 point up, our final selection, short priced favourite Silly Billy (9-4), relinquished that advantage finishing 3^rd by 5 lengths. Nothing lost and nothing gained!

We go in to the new week with the fifth day of Lingfield Park beckoning and 3 selections including a 2 pointer mid card.