For the record since 12th December we have seen
18 winners from 35 selections giving us a strike rate of 51.43%. As rewarding
as that may sound we have seen only another +5.39 profit!
What I would like to share with you today is how I played
god with the figures yesterday!
On Wednesday 19th December I was interested in
two rides from Willie Twiston-Davies, the first aboard Pharoh Jake (12:00
Lingfield Park) and the second on Sherman McCoy (13:00 Lingfield Park). Both top rated on last time
out performances. Pharoh Jake was given no run as they turned for home and was
unable to extricate its self due to being caught in a pocket. A fairly
insignificant event, until you become aware the horse is already entered on the
following day at Kempton Park.
The ratings I published for the Kempton Park race on the
following day were as follows:
The figures published for Pharoh Jake was obviously not from
its last time out 5.1/2 lengths 9th to Temple Road on the previous
day. Had I published figures based upon LTO the race would have been.
As accurate as I would like the figures to be, there are
times when I have to play god in order for a more sensible figure to be
published. Although Pharoh Jake was not a selection for the Lingfield Park race,
using the rating from its penultimate run in compiling Kemptons 7:30 made it a ‘Speed
and Class’ selection, a winning ‘Speed and Class’ selection.
The same applies to Sherman McCoy who was hemmed in on the
rail at a critical stage after a prominent start. I had the advantage of seeing
the head on, live on the day where Sherman McCoy makes up an enormous amount of
ground to finish 6th beaten 8 lengths and should be considered on
its penultimate run next time out and NOT its LTO.
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