THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 26th March KEMPTON PARK- 27th March WOLVERHAMPTON- 29th March WOLVERHAMPTON - 30th March LINGFIELD PARK, KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 31st March WOLVERHAMPTON & CHELMSFORD CITY - 1ST aPRIL LINGFIELD PARK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 2nd April KEMPTON PARK -

The Actuary: Having to playing God with the figures!

I haven’t written to the blog for awhile as there has been little to report of any consequence (until yesterday) and for those that are of the view that I only report on winning days, I would like to point out that we have continued to profit albeit in a small way.

For the record since 12th December we have seen 18 winners from 35 selections giving us a strike rate of 51.43%. As rewarding as that may sound we have seen only another +5.39 profit!

What I would like to share with you today is how I played god with the figures yesterday!

On Wednesday 19th December I was interested in two rides from Willie Twiston-Davies, the first aboard Pharoh Jake (12:00 Lingfield Park) and the second on Sherman McCoy (13:00 Lingfield Park). Both top rated on last time out performances. Pharoh Jake was given no run as they turned for home and was unable to extricate its self due to being caught in a pocket. A fairly insignificant event, until you become aware the horse is already entered on the following day at Kempton Park.

The ratings I published for the Kempton Park race on the following day were as follows:


The figures published for Pharoh Jake was obviously not from its last time out 5.1/2 lengths 9th to Temple Road on the previous day. Had I published figures based upon LTO the race would have been.


As accurate as I would like the figures to be, there are times when I have to play god in order for a more sensible figure to be published. Although Pharoh Jake was not a selection for the Lingfield Park race, using the rating from its penultimate run in compiling Kemptons 7:30 made it a ‘Speed and Class’ selection, a winning ‘Speed and Class’ selection.

The same applies to Sherman McCoy who was hemmed in on the rail at a critical stage after a prominent start. I had the advantage of seeing the head on, live on the day where Sherman McCoy makes up an enormous amount of ground to finish 6th beaten 8 lengths and should be considered on its penultimate run next time out and NOT its LTO.

Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Friday, December 21, 2012

The Actuary: Having to playing God with the figures!

I haven’t written to the blog for awhile as there has been little to report of any consequence (until yesterday) and for those that are of the view that I only report on winning days, I would like to point out that we have continued to profit albeit in a small way.

For the record since 12th December we have seen 18 winners from 35 selections giving us a strike rate of 51.43%. As rewarding as that may sound we have seen only another +5.39 profit!

What I would like to share with you today is how I played god with the figures yesterday!

On Wednesday 19th December I was interested in two rides from Willie Twiston-Davies, the first aboard Pharoh Jake (12:00 Lingfield Park) and the second on Sherman McCoy (13:00 Lingfield Park). Both top rated on last time out performances. Pharoh Jake was given no run as they turned for home and was unable to extricate its self due to being caught in a pocket. A fairly insignificant event, until you become aware the horse is already entered on the following day at Kempton Park.

The ratings I published for the Kempton Park race on the following day were as follows:


The figures published for Pharoh Jake was obviously not from its last time out 5.1/2 lengths 9th to Temple Road on the previous day. Had I published figures based upon LTO the race would have been.


As accurate as I would like the figures to be, there are times when I have to play god in order for a more sensible figure to be published. Although Pharoh Jake was not a selection for the Lingfield Park race, using the rating from its penultimate run in compiling Kemptons 7:30 made it a ‘Speed and Class’ selection, a winning ‘Speed and Class’ selection.

The same applies to Sherman McCoy who was hemmed in on the rail at a critical stage after a prominent start. I had the advantage of seeing the head on, live on the day where Sherman McCoy makes up an enormous amount of ground to finish 6th beaten 8 lengths and should be considered on its penultimate run next time out and NOT its LTO.