The Actuary Horse Racing Tips - Timing is everything!

With few good opportunities of any note over the Christmas period the minimum expectation from those rare forays in to the betting market is getting a run for your money and we got that in spades today.

I am referring to our first of two races of interest and the masterful ride from Adam Beschizza and  Guarda Pampa who returned at 7-1 after a massive gamble on Marco Botti’s newcomer Golden Share and sustained support for Dusty Red resulting in our selection drifting from 5-1.

Pre race, Simon Mapletoft made it quite clear that in his eyes Guarda Pampa would not be winning, shortly followed by the commentator who stated that the selection would not be able to hold on after leading from a wide draw and breaking clear by a good 10 lengths lite-up by first time blinkers.

In practice, Adam Beschizza had timed the ride to perfection and appeared to be pulling away from the field again in the closing stages.

The Actuary selection Guarda Pampa (7-1) clear of its rivals as they begin the sweep for home

You always expect these horses to come back to the field but there was something in the manner of the ride and the pace which left me hopeful that Guarda Pampa would see the race out in the style achieved. 

      

Horse Racing Tips - Timing is everything!

With few good opportunities of any note over the Christmas period the minimum expectation from those rare forays in to the betting market is getting a run for your money and we got that in spades today.

I am referring to our first of two races of interest and the masterful ride from Adam Beschizza and  Guarda Pampa who returned at 7-1 after a massive gamble on Marco Botti’s newcomer Golden Share and sustained support for Dusty Red resulting in our selection drifting from 5-1.

Pre race, Simon Mapletoft made it quite clear that in his eyes Guarda Pampa would not be winning, shortly followed by the commentator who stated that the selection would not be able to hold on after leading from a wide draw and breaking clear by a good 10 lengths lite-up by first time blinkers.

In practice, Adam Beschizza had timed the ride to perfection and appeared to be pulling away from the field again in the closing stages.

The Actuary selection Guarda Pampa (7-1) clear of its rivals as they begin the sweep for home

You always expect these horses to come back to the field but there was something in the manner of the ride and the pace which left me hopeful that Guarda Pampa would see the race out in the style achieved. 

      

The Actuary small gift of appreciation to all subscribers

As a token of appreciation and continued support, all subscribers should check their PayPal accounts for a small Christmas gift from The Actuary Horse Racing Tips.

Hopefully you will find the gift enough to fill your glasses and raise a toast to the year that was and the year that beckons for us.

We are sure to post another profitable month for December and even though we have been flat lining a little this past week I am still hopeful of reaching that 400 point profit for 2012.

I hope you all enjoy your Christmas break in whatever way you see fit :)

Feliz Navidad to you all

      

The Actuary: Having to playing God with the figures!

I haven’t written to the blog for awhile as there has been little to report of any consequence (until yesterday) and for those that are of the view that I only report on winning days, I would like to point out that we have continued to profit albeit in a small way.

For the record since 12^th December we have seen 18 winners from 35 selections giving us a strike rate of 51.43%. As rewarding as that may sound we have seen only another +5.39 profit!

What I would like to share with you today is how I played god with the figures yesterday!

On Wednesday 19^th December I was interested in two rides from Willie Twiston-Davies, the first aboard Pharoh Jake (12:00 Lingfield Park) and the second on Sherman McCoy (13:00 Lingfield Park). Both top rated on last time out performances. Pharoh Jake was given no run as they turned for home and was unable to extricate its self due to being caught in a pocket. A fairly insignificant event, until you become aware the horse is already entered on the following day at Kempton Park.

The ratings I published for the Kempton Park race on the following day were as follows:

The figures published for Pharoh Jake was obviously not from its last time out 5.1/2 lengths 9^th to Temple Road on the previous day. Had I published figures based upon LTO the race would have been.

As accurate as I would like the figures to be, there are times when I have to play god in order for a more sensible figure to be published. Although Pharoh Jake was not a selection for the Lingfield Park race, using the rating from its penultimate run in compiling Kemptons 7:30 made it a ‘Speed and Class’ selection, a winning ‘Speed and Class’ selection.

The same applies to Sherman McCoy who was hemmed in on the rail at a critical stage after a prominent start. I had the advantage of seeing the head on, live on the day where Sherman McCoy makes up an enormous amount of ground to finish 6^th beaten 8 lengths and should be considered on its penultimate run next time out and NOT its LTO.

      

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips - Selections 6th January 2012

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips - Taking a different view

After a great start to the week we have seen a decline in fortunes as the week draws to an end. We will be ending the week in profit but it was clear to see how much more speculative selections became when judged against the competitiveness of the races we played in.

Before I elaborate further let me make it clear that a top rating is NOT a pre-requisite for any of the four selection methods.

Firstly, let’s take look at a few of those races where we were successful in a graphical format.

Not only is there significant daylight between the top rated and second rated but there is little to no competitive depth in any of these races.  I appreciate that the winners were taken at 1-5, 7-4 & 4-5 and all returned somewhat shorter but just to dispel any fears on prices...

   

4 length winner Murcar returned at 16-1 and was available at higher but we are digressing from the point I would like to make.

If we now look at some of this week’s failures in the same format:

Selections; Lastkingofscotland, One Way Or Another and Hittin’The Skids were in much more competitive races and I could show several similar examples. This not to say these races should be given a wide birth as we did find winners in races with a similar make-up,  while others failed by differing degrees as shown above.

When looking for opportunities outside of The Actuary HorseRacing Tips which are posted to your inbox each evening, viewing the figures from this perspective should be the first consideration, where the top rated = 100% and the bottom rated = 0% will give you a measurement that can be used in consideration of value or for use with the Kelly Criterion.

Taking this view may have delivered....

Stormy Morning won at 10-1

Murcar as previously discussed won at 16-1

Which leads us nicely on to consider tomorrow’s cards where you can draw your own conclusions.......

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips - Selections 5th January 2012

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips - Selections 4th January 2012

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips - Selections 3rd January 2012

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips - Selections 2nd January 2012

The Actuary Horse Racing Tips - Selections 1st January 2012