100 winners, 321.52 points profit from a 31.4% strike rate since 1st January 2015 from sectional times (continued)

A sectional time for finishing speed put in to numerical format is fairly easy to interpret. What is more complicated is interpreting what part the pace played. While the maxim ‘able to quicken off a slow pace’ seems to gain most plaudits, my personal feeling is that this is not such a desirable trait.

As in the case of Celestial Bay, its preferable requirements are not likely to be met on the vast majority of races it competes in. Finding a horse able to quicken over a given trip regardless of pace is far more likely to be rewarding.

So, where does that mystical line on pace fall before we see a deterioration in a horses finishing speed? The reality is that it is probably wiser to find the answer on a horse by horse basis, making sure your answer considers the trip.

From the small data set we currently have, here are the ‘pace’ returns of the pre-race top rated on ‘finish’ since 1st January 2015.

As the most interesting figures appear in the 3yo column I have included adjacent to it, the size of the data set. If you consider that my standards are based upon 4yo+ races.  3yo’s able to run to the standard (100%) and above should be duly noted.

Looking at performances in retrospect is still only part of the equation and it is only when you marry the data up with the likely pace in the coming event that you can form a complete and coherent picture.

If you are at all quizzical as to where this is leading, for non-subscribers, here are the pre-race top rated ‘finish’ horses from yesterday’s evening meeting at Kempton Park. Although they didn't ALL manifest in to winners, the performances of ALL named are well worth watching.

Maison Brillet	KEMP	05:50	107.4%
Embankment	KEMP	06:20	103.2%
Cockle Town Boy	KEMP	06:50	98.2%
Skinny Love	KEMP	07:20	103.3%
Little Palaver	KEMP	07:50	104.6%
Polar Kite	KEMP	08:20	102.1%

If you take in to account the prices, that 3 off these horses were way off the pace at the back of the field, and one fell out of the stalls, covering your win stake on which ever option of either 4TBP or Place returns your stake can be very fruitful.

More tomorrow