100 winners, 321.52 points profit from a 31.4% strike rate since 1st January 2015 from sectional times (continued)

My initial objective in compiling sectional times was primarily a recognition of the vulnerability in the speed figures currently compiled off a weak pace. To move things forward there was a requirement to put ourselves in a position where we are able to assess the likely pace in any given race. From a retrospective view, we will also have the ability to expose the weakness or strengths of what at face value appear to be good figures.

In the example above, although the subsequent winner You’re Cool takes its place at the top of the ratings pre-race, Kodiac Lady further down the ratings would tend to be ignored on ratings, as it was in the market as the 20-1 outsider of the 5.

The sectional times (final two columns) tell a different story. Off a weak pace (96.3%), Kodiac Lady is the only horse left in this field that ran above standard LTO (103.6%). 

In practice, 20-1 Kodiac Lady closed down on You’re Cool all the way to the line failing by only a neck. The question we need to be asking ourselves, given that You’re Cool set the 100.9% pace in its LTO run, is ‘how much will the likely faster pace detract from Kodiac Lady’s finishing burst?’

As attractive as 103.6% looks in this field, refer back to the race sited in yesterday’s post and consider how keen you would be to back Celestial Bay who returned a finish of 109.6% after its Chelmsford City win on Thursday 5th March without considering that the pace of the race returned was 94.5%.

Tomorrow I will cover what appear to be the safe pace boundaries by age group.