Horse Racings ‘Holy Grail’ Summary of Week 1

With a week under our belts for ‘subscribers’ to enjoy the delights (and it has been a delight) of my newly published ratings based upon sectional times, I thought it would be ideal to do a quick summary and set some noticeable parameters to move forward with.

In the following tables I have the top rated horses for each day in order of LTO final furlongs which seems to highlight the best opportunities from the limited information we currently have at our disposal! 

Highlighted in grey are the top horses for their respective races. Added, after the race time, course and date, is a column showing LTO change in distance where ‘0’ = same trip, ‘-‘ = stepped down in trip and any figures in positive = stepped up in trip, all in a decimal format. i.e. 0.13 to a furlong.

  

Monday 26^th January 2015

Monday at Wolverhampton has been discussed before and was reasonably straight forward. On Tuesday 27th January we were at Southwell which we are yet to prepare sectional times for.

Wednesday 28^th January 2015

This looks particular ugly and if we can take anything out of these results, it was the success of Trojan Rocket at 20-1. Based upon the final furlongs Pretend looked well ahead but at some point we have to consider the pace of a race and decide at what point does a slow pace detract or enhance the speed in the closing stages. It is noticeable that Pretend, Nimble Kimble and Thecornishcowboy came of the lowest paced races at 97%, 97% and 96% respectively and all failed to make the frame.

Thursday 29^th January 2015

Back to Wolverhampton, and back to winning ways! Enriching takes the eye after the demise of 2 horses yesterday that come of a similar pace and failed to reach the frame. On the basis that the further the trip, the slower the pace becomes, it is worth considering whether Enriching, who was being stepped up in trip was likely to be advantaged.

Friday 30^th January 2015

      

With two successful days at Wolverhampton and after drawing a blank at Chelmsford City and Kempton Park, I though it wise to play 3 Canadians. 1: Lingfield Park 2: Wolverhampton 3: Mixed that culminated in three winners at Lingfield Park which lifted my fears that this was track specific and although only gathering in one winner at Wolverhampton, the run of Cayuga who was stopped in its tracks and should have won. The run of Company Secretary who also should have won but for an over confident ride, I was mildly pleased. We didn’t break the bank but we returned a small profit on all 3 Canadians.

Saturday 31^st January 2015

The success at Lingfield Park on Friday gave me great confidence for a good result on Saturday. What I was dubious about was how low I was going with ‘With Approval’ and ‘Spiritual Star’ rating just below standard. As I was already questioning anything at 97% or below after Tuesdays results Noble Gift and Billy Red had to be left alone based upon the pace of their respective races. Most encouraging was that for the second time this week, I have seen horse’s look like being swallowed up in the final stages of their races only for them to fight back. With Approval on this occasion only managed a dead heat but when you think your horse has lost, a dead heat is a good result ;)

Sunday 1^st February 2015

I had good reason to be dubious about Chelmsford City after Wednesday’s meeting and unfortunately was found to be right. As per Saturday Celestial Bay is not selected due to the meandering pace it came off.

After completing my sectional times last night, I find it somewhat inexplicable that a course with an almost 2 furlong straight should return times slower than Lingfield Park and Wolverhampton in the final stages. The runners come home like it is Southwell in clouds of dust and there should be no surprise that it is favouring prominent horses. That said, you have to admire the constitution of Karam Albaari’s who did come from the rear of the field to win but it did take the best part of 16 furlongs!

The highlight worth mentioning and worthy of note is Thanksgiving Day recorded the fastest finish AND off the fastest pace LTO! This is not something I have checked out yet but the manner of its pillar to post victory will have me checking through the past week to see if there have been others.

We are back at Lingfield Park and Wolverhampton today and barring more Cayuga’s and Company Secretary’s I’m expecting a BIG day.