Could this be the ‘Holy Grail’ for Horse Racing? (Part 2)

I can’t remember having so much mail in one day after posting Could this be the ‘Holy Grail’ for Horse Racing? and publishing the figures to subscribers for the first time. As much I have tried to respond to each email individually, I fear that if I continue in that attempt the response would be less than timely so apologies in advance to those who will be getting a link to this post as a response.

Most important first! Can I re-emphasise that this is in its infancy and we don’t at this stage have the depth of history that is ideal. As you can appreciate having data on how a horse has performed over (or round-about) the distance it is competing over today is essential. There is no coincidence that in the ‘Canadian’ example I sited, with the exception of one horse, ALL had recorded a fast finish over the distance they were competing over on the day.

Although at present we are faced with (in most cases)  LTO performances, this is not by design, and is more to do with the lack of maturity of my sectional times data. Although I am happy enough at present to get involved with horses that have performed exceptionally LTO over the distance. Being able to rule out horses on the same criteria is key.

You can also glean from the example I provided, the weakness in the opposition, with selection made being emphatic. 

Waterloo Dock (104.4) with its nearest rival Lazy Sioux (101.2) competing over a furlong further which was always likely to deplete its finishing kick. 

Bush Beauty (102.0) with its nearest rival Mops Angel (100.4) and as with Lazy Sioux competing over a furlong further. 

Classic Seniority (104.6) and although there were plenty of unknown quantities regarding sectional time data, Loti (98.2) was its nearest rival again stepping up in trip (is there a theme here). 

Finally Apparatchika (102.6) although not over the day’s trip, with its nearest rival Celestial Bay (98.0) the gap was such that it demanded attention in a race where none of its rivals faced this trip LTO.

There were NO races that I was willing to play yesterday using sectional time data that put a single horse emphatically ahead (as enticing as Trojan Rocket and Pretending looked), and I fear the same is true today at Wolverhampton with only the 7:10 as a real contender, albeit very tentative and the price is generous enough for Win, Place and 4 TBP if evens can be got.

The statement in the original post ‘Yesterday’s card at Wolverhampton was exceptional in the number of opportunities’ shouldn't fall on deaf ears. It’s very much a case of choosing your battles carefully and being patient. Tomorrow could be the day ;)