Could this be the ‘Holy Grail’ for Horse Racing?

When I first embarked on the time consuming exercise of compiling sectional times at the start of this year, it felt like this was no more than a natural progression. A requirement to eliminate potential selection in cases where a false time may be recorded and to make sense of what was being seen visually. As with anything I do, I do it my way and I seemed to have found something quite different than anticipated!

My current ‘modus operandi’ is to compile sectional times for each current day while working back through past results when time will allow. As things stand, I have not, as yet, arrived at a workable ‘standard’ for each course and distance. I have gaps galore pre-race based upon LTO performances, next to NO history in regard to any horses distance preference (based upon sectional timings). Yet, over the past couple of weeks, the results, based upon the information I DO have, have astounded me.

Not only have they astounded me but they have put a whole new perspective on the speed figures I have been compiling to good effect since 2008.

Below, added to the customary layout of LTO Rating, Horses Name, Competitive OR, C&D Average and number of C&D runs, I have added two columns. The first representing LTO pace and the second LTO finishing speed.

26th January 2015 Wolverhampton
2:40 Unibet Offer Daily Jockey/Trainer Specials Amateur Riders´ Handicap (Tapeta) Cl6 5f216y
100.9%	*	Kodafine	65	99.4%	(2)		101.4%		100.0%
100.2%		Amis Reunis	54	99.7%	(1)		101.5%		92.9%
99.8%		Masked Dance	52
99.8%		Lazy Sioux					98.9%		101.2%
99.7%		Master Of Disguise	69	99.8%	(2)		100.0%		98.0%
99.6%		Steel City Boy	51	99.5%	(2)		101.1%		96.5%
99.3%		Waterloo Dock	59				96.9%		104.4%
99.1%		Prigsnov Dancer	52	99.3%	(4)		101.0%		94.4%
98.5%		Two Turtle Doves	64				98.7%		98.2%
98.5%		La Danza					101.0%		89.7%
97.4%		Volito	59	96.7%	(2)		100.0%		92.9%
88.4%		Rich Harvest
3:10 Daily Enhanced "´Magic Multiples" At Unibet Handicap (Tapeta) Cl6 5f20y
99.6%	*	Sky Steps	49	98.7%	(2)		100.2%		97.2%
99.2%		Colombia		98.5%	(2)		98.9%		100.0%
99.1%		Penalty Scorer	49	98.9%	(2)		98.7%		99.8%
97.1%		Devilution		97.6%	(1)		98.5%		95.1%
96.2%		Miss Jonh		98.8%	(1)
95.8%		Majenski					99.9%		88.3%
		Swift Susie
		Bushtiger
3:40 Ladbrokes Handicap (Tapeta) Cl5 7f32y
101.3%	*	Mops Angel					101.2%		100.4%
100.6%		Al´s Memory	74	100.8%	(1)
100.4%		Rememberance Day	61	101.2%	(1)		101.0%		99.0%
100.2%		Queen Aggie	70	101.5%	(3)
100.1%		Bush Beauty	66	100.4%	(2)		99.6%		102.0%
100.1%		Piddie´s Power	74	100.1%	(2)		101.9%		95.9%
99.9%		Smalljohn	70	99.6%	(3)		101.9%		95.3%
99.9%		Dream Scenario	72	100.0%	(3)		99.8%		99.1%
99.2%		George Fenton	71
99.1%		Al Muheer	88	100.2%	(3)		101.9%		92.5%
4:10 Ladbrokes Maiden Stakes (Tapeta) Cl5 7f32y
100.1%	*	Sciustree		99.1%	(2)		100.3%		99.2%
98.5%		Cantankerous		97.1%	(1)		100.3%		93.7%
98.4%		Ainslie					97.9%		100.2%
		After The Sunset
		Regal Bond
		Beat Goes On
		Regards
		Sir Keating
		Super Moon
		Tarleton
		Yeah Cool
		Auntie Elsie
4:40 £32 Free At 32Red.com Claiming Stakes (Tapeta) Cl6 5f216y
100.1%	*	Classic Seniority	73	100.8%	(1)		98.0%		104.6%
99.3%		Millar Rose
98.4%		Essaka
97.9%		Tamarin	64	99.6%	(1)		100.5%		93.9%
97.3%		Loti					96.7%		98.2%
97.1%		Commander Patten
		Doppler Effect
5:10 32Red Fillies´ Handicap (Tapeta) Cl5 1m4f50y
100.6%	*	Toptempo	66				101.9%		93.5%
100.6%	*	Apparatchika					100.1%		102.6%
100.0%		Celestial Bay	66				100.3%		98.0%
81.1%		The Blue Dog	64				100.0%		39.4%
5:40 32Red Casino Handicap (Tapeta) Cl5 1m1f103y
99.6%		Miss Minuty	67				99.7%		99.3%
97.7%		Monein					97.4%		98.8%
		Austin Friars

Ignoring the pace element and concentrating purely on ‘LTO finishing speed’ Waterloo Dock (1st 16-1) Bush Beauty (1st 12-1) Classic Seniority (1st 5-4) Apparatchika (1st 10-11) and Ainslie come to the fore in their respective races. Although it has to be said that Ainslie is a marginal selection having only just crept over standard. Had Colombia been a tad quicker than Ainslie LTO I would have been much happier with my 10p Canadian which can be seen below for no other reason than to prove this is not 'after timing' :)

If you have an expectation that ‘Pace’ + ‘Finishing Speed’ = LTO Rating, it is important to understand that as each courses configuration is different, there is a need to create independent standards for each element. I.e. The finishing speed at Kempton Park, as a rule of thumb, will be faster due to a 3 furlong straight (on the outer loop) than Lingfield Park and Wolverhampton. To enable cross comparison between the courses, and to pin point exceptional finishing speed an independant ‘standard’ needs to be arrived at.

Yesterday’s card at Wolverhampton was exceptional in the number of opportunities that it highlighted and this isn't the case for every card. From the limited information I have at present, there also tends to be greater accuracy in 3yo+ and 4yo+ races which should come as no surprise!

Although this is a work in progress, I think that it would be remiss of me not to share these ratings with subscribers going forward. BUT please don’t expect them today for Southwell as at present my focus is purely on Chelmsford City, Lingfield Park, Kempton Park and Wolverhampton.

Although I am able to endorse these figures further by rattling of several similar winners over the past couple of weeks, I feel it wiser to put things in to perspective. This avenue is in its infancy for me and the manner of some of the victories (Waterloo Dock in particular) is playing to the strength of horses that tend to stay on at the end of a race. I am sure there will be plenty more winners, equally, there will be those that fail, sometimes by the narrowest of margins. A 10p Canadian just about sums up my level of commitment and caution at this stage.