Taking things to the next level!

After a great start to the day yesterday with the shortest price selections of the day winning, unfortunately we were left wanting with the later selections. Of the failures, all had been in promising positions during their races only to flattened out or just fail when closing.

This scenario is very poignant to the work I am currently undertaking in compiling sectionals (or times for the final furlongs) of races. The Betting Lab series highlighted in yesterday’s post led me to Simon Rowlands article on the subject ‘How to use sectional times for profitable betting’ which is well worth a read.

I do have my own thoughts on the topic which don’t necessarily concur in whole with Simon and there are some glaring omissions which aren’t covered, perhaps expecting us to come to our own conclusions. The most important omission being the need to arrive at a set of standards for the final furlongs to allow comparison between courses. As an example: Lingfield Park final 2 furlongs incorporates a bend whereas Kempton Park (outer loop) is entirely straight. In a raw format, these two configurations are incomparable as a horse is unlikely to reach full momentum while turning.

If you find yourself questioning the importance of such a task in taking things to the next level,

consider the three races over 7f at Kempton Park yesterday and draw your own conclusions:

3:50 7f Class 7 3yo+ Handicap: Overall time 86.97: final 2f 24.10: Early Pace 62.87

4:20 7f Class 6 2yo Maiden: Overall time 88.26: final 2f 22.20: Early Pace 66.06

6:50 7f Class 3 3yo+ Handicap Overall time 84.43: final 2f 22.70: Early Pace 65.73  

What I believe this will offer us once completed is the ability to make an accurate assessment pre-race of the expected pace, and to who it is most likely to benefit.