A day of Much Promise at Southwell and Kempton Park

How can a horse that can run competitively over 2 miles at 13.34 seconds per furlong fall in to a big black hole after a mile running in a race over 1m ½ won at 13.94 seconds per furlong. I woke this morning still scratching my head over the performance of Argaum at Wolverhampton yesterday.

With the inform Alan Kirby on board chasing possibly his fourth win on the card, the performance seems inexplicable. Here we have a horse that as a 3yo was last seen on the All Weather competitively going down by 2.1/2 lengths after making most of the running in a Class 4 of a mark of 72. It then goes to Paul Maloney as a 4yo to race over obstacles and picks up its first mark of 88. Three wins later, wins a 0-95 before returning to the All Weather.   

As it has not won on the flat the horse is legible to run in a maiden under the code and as it appears that there has been some improvement being dropped to a Class 5 you would expect the horse to at least be competitive if not winning. But Argaum is beaten by 35 lengths in a time slower than it has consistently achieved over obstacles. Perhaps I should simply move on rather than dwell on it!

After a lengthy All Weather absents Southwell returns today unlike some of the declared runners. Already we have four withdraws in the 1:40 where the inform Piceno is likely to be a warm order. My eye has been taken by one of the 3yo EMPERATRIZ, who has run in to a place on both previous occasions at the track and is well worth an EW shout. There are some unknown quantities in the race with interesting profiles so this will be a small stake wager.

 At Kempton Park I was hoping for a better price for MUCH PROMISE who sets a good standard for the opener but the opening show would suggest it unlikely to go odds against.

Handicap debutant CAERWYN ran very creditably in defeat over C&D last time out and although only in claiming company the time would suggest that it has the beating of rivals on these terms.

The ‘Pace and Going’ figures will be available for both Southwell and Kempton Park meetings in the subscribers area shortly.

Good Luck to you all