THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 26th March KEMPTON PARK- 27th March WOLVERHAMPTON- 29th March WOLVERHAMPTON - 30th March LINGFIELD PARK, KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 31st March WOLVERHAMPTON & CHELMSFORD CITY - 1ST aPRIL LINGFIELD PARK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 2nd April KEMPTON PARK -

The 33-1 shocker and yes I have emotions too!

As I frequently preach on the subject of temperament and self-control, I couldn't help retrospectively analysing the mixture of emotions that I went through yesterday on one particular bet on the Kempton Park card. No doubt, similar emotions that bedevil every punter to some degree on a daily basis.

At the time of placing the bet the evening before, there was no emotion, and there rarely is, as I go through the methodical process of placing my bets.

It wasn't until 10 minutes before the off that the doubt and indecision kicked in. Having taken 10-1 on the selection I noted that bookmakers were offering only 5-1. Ahead of it in the market were an 8-11 and 7-2. With the exception of my selection, the rest of the market was friendless with prices upward of 12-1.

Irrespective of all my hard work the evening before the market was now driving me. My first thoughts: I can lay it on the exchanges to cover my stake. The exchanges were showing a different shape with my selection steadily in free fall at 8.0. This strengthened my resolve in looking to get out and I placed a lay at 5.0 (4-1) to recover my stake. The price continued in its free-fall which strengthened my convictions on laying the horse.

Initially, the catalyst behind the lay was the short price offering the option. It is now based upon the strength of the two at the head of the market convincing me my selection can't win!  

In running, the selection was prominent throughout and took up the running in the final furlong. At this point my lay bet was matched and immediately my emotions were telling me I was a fool and should have had the courage of my convictions.

As the selection started to draw away from the two rivals that had battle with it up the straight my heart sunk. While my brain subliminally whizzed through the calculation of what my winnings would have been and how much I had put back in to the market.

But we aren't done yet as a closer comes out of the pack and nails the selection within yards of the line. A 33-1, first time out from Roger Varian's yard lands the prize. My selection is second by a neck at 12-1 with the two market leaders 1.3/4 lengths back in 3rd and 4th.

I am now numb! I have won nothing, I have lost nothing. Perhaps I should take pride in taking the right course of action. The stark reality is, I would have had greater pride in myself for just sticking to my guns on the win bet.  

They say pride comes before a fall! Oh! the conundrum that is horse racing :)

n.b. If you watch the race re-run on Sporting Life it is well worth watching Hughie's on Proximate in the final 1/2 furlong!  

Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Friday, September 06, 2013

The 33-1 shocker and yes I have emotions too!

As I frequently preach on the subject of temperament and self-control, I couldn't help retrospectively analysing the mixture of emotions that I went through yesterday on one particular bet on the Kempton Park card. No doubt, similar emotions that bedevil every punter to some degree on a daily basis.

At the time of placing the bet the evening before, there was no emotion, and there rarely is, as I go through the methodical process of placing my bets.

It wasn't until 10 minutes before the off that the doubt and indecision kicked in. Having taken 10-1 on the selection I noted that bookmakers were offering only 5-1. Ahead of it in the market were an 8-11 and 7-2. With the exception of my selection, the rest of the market was friendless with prices upward of 12-1.

Irrespective of all my hard work the evening before the market was now driving me. My first thoughts: I can lay it on the exchanges to cover my stake. The exchanges were showing a different shape with my selection steadily in free fall at 8.0. This strengthened my resolve in looking to get out and I placed a lay at 5.0 (4-1) to recover my stake. The price continued in its free-fall which strengthened my convictions on laying the horse.

Initially, the catalyst behind the lay was the short price offering the option. It is now based upon the strength of the two at the head of the market convincing me my selection can't win!  

In running, the selection was prominent throughout and took up the running in the final furlong. At this point my lay bet was matched and immediately my emotions were telling me I was a fool and should have had the courage of my convictions.

As the selection started to draw away from the two rivals that had battle with it up the straight my heart sunk. While my brain subliminally whizzed through the calculation of what my winnings would have been and how much I had put back in to the market.

But we aren't done yet as a closer comes out of the pack and nails the selection within yards of the line. A 33-1, first time out from Roger Varian's yard lands the prize. My selection is second by a neck at 12-1 with the two market leaders 1.3/4 lengths back in 3rd and 4th.

I am now numb! I have won nothing, I have lost nothing. Perhaps I should take pride in taking the right course of action. The stark reality is, I would have had greater pride in myself for just sticking to my guns on the win bet.  

They say pride comes before a fall! Oh! the conundrum that is horse racing :)

n.b. If you watch the race re-run on Sporting Life it is well worth watching Hughie's on Proximate in the final 1/2 furlong!