The Actuary All Weather Horse Racing Tips 4 - 0 Bookmakers

An absolutely emphatic day of results yesterday where it was ‘The Actuary Subscribers’ 4 Bookmakers 0, and a great way to end a month where we had difficulty getting out of first gear and each step forward was followed by a step back.

Not only did yesterday secure another summer month of profit for The Actuary subscribers but was significant in so many other ways.

With a complete set regarding prices, 1 short, 2 mid and 1 long, I hope this can dispel thoughts from non-subscribers that this is NOT a tipping service that provides strings of short priced selections. The two drifters in among the selections firmly confirms that The Actuary All Weather service is not over subscribed and further prove, if required, that the All Weather Horse Racing is equally viable during the summer months.

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Saturday 26th June 2013

29th June 2013 Lingfield Park The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions
5:45 AB Coatings Supporting British Soldiers EBF Maiden Stakes Cl5 5f
96.1%	*	Global Explorer
96.0%		Narborough
		Banaadeer
		Finn Class
		Minley
		Taquka
		Movie Magic

Lay, Back, and enjoy the days racing

With a great day of racing ahead, both here at home and in Ireland, rather than find myself waiting for the three All Weather races on Lingfield Park’s evening fixture, I found myself going through each of today’s cards systematically looking for 'Back to Lay’ opportunities.

As a novice in this arena, I set out a strict criteria that has worked favourably over the past week but find myself questioning whether I am I opting for a false safety net that provides such a poor return. Yesterday was a stereotypical day with 9 selections of which 7 returned a 1 point profit leaving me 5 points ahead.

Here is the rub! Three selections went on to win at backed prices of 33-1, 11-1 and 8-1. In essence, I had turned what could have been a 46 point profit in to just 4 points by adopting a ‘Back to Lay’ approach.

Why Saturday is different than any other racing day

During my ‘Back to Lay’ considerations, it became apparent that there is a high number of what I would term as ‘Target’ races (where a trainer has campaigned a horse with a particular race in mind).

This is little help to us when making our selections as several trainers have the same races as an intended target. Perhaps it’s a day when the form book should be thrown out the window in favour of trends and patterns.

No doubt the toughest races of the day to predict will be the 30 runner 6f Paddy Power Sprint at 4:45 Curragh. Here patterns abound and I have plucked two from the pack at the bottom of the handicap that play a part in a ‘Back to Lay’ strategy and could go a lot closer than their odds might suggest in ARBITRAGEUR (33-1) and SPRINGINMYSTEP (25-1)    

Have fun today and good luck to you ALL

Great Leighs has once again failed to be included in the UK horse racing calendar!

As in 2013 the BHA has rejected an application from course owners MC Racetracks Limited to run fixtures at Great Leigh’s next year. The management team behind the racecourse have responded with fury to Thursday's decision by the sport's ruling body that the track should not be allowed to bid for fixtures for 2014. The formal reasons for that decision have been kept private.

Great Leigh's was the first horse racing venue to open in Britain in 81 years when it put on its first card in April 2008. It was initially open for less than a year, between April 2008 and January 2009, but the course went into administration and had its racing licence revoked.

New owners MC Racetracks who took over the track in November 2011 had hopes of holding 35 to 45 races per year.

The BHA's director of integrity Adam Brickell said: "The application has been given careful and thorough consideration, but the Board was not in a position to approve Great Leigh’s participation in the 2014 fixture allocation process. The BHA remains open to new racecourse applications under our annual guidelines, and will continue to provide the necessary assistance and guidance to prospective applicants."

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Wednesday 26th June 2013

26th June 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 6:20 ORdigiNAL Partner Pacesetter Apprentice Handicap Cl6 1m
100.2%		Catchanova	99.4%	(10)		❷
99.7%		Wyndham Wave	99.5%	(4)		❶
99.5%	*	Piccolo Mondo	100.5%	(3)
99.3%		Deal Me In				❶
99.2%	*	Olynard	98.8%	(3)		❶
98.4%		Compton Bird	98.6%	(1)		❶
97.9%		Karate	99.2%	(9)		❶
97.9%		Vermeyen
97.9%		Spanish Trail				❶
97.7%		Just Five	98.4%	(2)
97.6%		Mcconnell	99.6%	(7)

First and last Kempton Park sandwich!

It is frequently a difficult task to find appealing horses outside of races involving subscriber’s selection and my usual modus operandi is to find some value and unusual profiles. There are a few days when I feel particularly bullish about a selection so when two turn up on the someday it is particularly satisfying.

Tomorrow is one of those days with what I believe to be two very good opportunities sandwiching the Kempton Park card and both at good prices.

In the opener PICCOLO MONDO (7-1) has been constantly knocking on the door on the All Weather this season after its 2 years off the track. 1.1/2 lengths 2^nd to Hill Of Dreams who has subsequently notched up another two victories and is now racing of a mark of 68 on reappearance. Beaten a neck by Bold Ring and most pleasing was 1.1/2 length 3^rd to Midnight Feast in a 0-70. This horse likes to lead and is gutsy enough to keep going over this trip if Shirley Birkett can make good use of him.

In the closing contest on the Kempton Park card, the lightly raced NET WHIZZ (11-2) returns to the scene of his sole victory from its 5 outings to date. You can deduce from the little form on offer that NET WHIZZ has a liking for the surface and is well capable of repeating it’s previous victory in this company.  

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Monday 24th June 2013

24th June 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 2:15 BetVictor.com Amateur Riders´ Selling Stakes Cl6 1m4f50y
101.5%	*	Waahej	101.7%	(1)		❷
101.1%		Silver Marizah	95.5%	(1)		❶
99.5%		Visions Of Johanna	99.8%	(8)		❶
98.6%		Dubai Emerald	99.2%	(2)
98.2%		Knox Overstreet
98.2%		Right Stuff				❶
98.1%		Kristallo
98.0%		Underwritten	98.0%	(1)
97.6%		Heading To First	97.9%	(1)

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Saturday 22nd June 2013

22nd June 2013 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 6:05 Vines BMW Maiden Auction Stakes Cl6 7f
98.8%	*	Cockney Bob				❶
96.7%		Plucky Dip
		Cotton Club				❶
		Double Point				❶
		Bright Society				❶
		Zambeasy				❶
		Cricklewood Green				❶
		Ifrika				❶
		Chance Of Romance				❶
		Indie Star				❶

Flying in the face of adversity

I might be flying in the face of adversity suggesting that a horse that has a form line of 42232 from its 5 races career is a likely candidate for the winners enclosure today at Lingfield Park. Add to the mix that there are 5 un-raced 2yo in the field of 9 perhaps taking too small a price would not be wise.

While recording 4223 over 5 furlongs it always appeared that COCKNEY BOB needed further as he was always finishing races well. Unfortunately when tried over 6f for the first time, last time out he gave the pace setting Talksalot to much rope but stayed on well to finish second by 1 length.

With what looked to be one of the key protagonists withdrawn from the race this could be the golden opportunity for COCKNEY BOB and taking an in-running price shortly after the off looks to be the most favourable play. 

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Thursday 20th June 2013

20th June 2013 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 5.40 Eden Brook Maiden Stakes Cl5 6f
97.1%	*	Clarice				❶
		Blue Bounty				❶
		Classified Weapon				❸
		Holystones				❷
		Mersad				❷
		Miracle Of Medinah
		Triple O Seven
		Neuf Des Coeurs

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Wednesday 19th June 1013

19th June 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 6:10 £200 Free Bets At Betdaq Apprentice Handicap Cl4 1m2f
102.1%		Purple ´n Gold	101.2%	(3)
101.7%		Mubtadi
100.7%		Xinbama
100.5%	*	Rezwaan	100.3%	(4)
100.2%		King Olav	97.4%	(4)
99.2%		Ishikawa
98.5%		Lady Macduff
97.5%		Tafawuk				❶
		Checkpoint				❷

Its been an age since we saw this gilded opportunity!

The biggest disappointment and the best performance on last night’s Kempton Park card starred in the same race with Hill of Dreams clearing away from the field in some style while Future Reference was only able to grind down the remainder of the field.

Taking a retrospective view of the race, you are left asking yourself how a horse that has a form line of 231241, with the two wins coming over the trip and one being over C&D, has gone off at 14-1! With winners on the card at 9-4, 12-1, 14-1, 50-1, 16-1, 7-4 and 12-1 I am sure the bookmakers are looking forward to this evening as the course continues to run slowly with only margin improvements towards standard each day.

Trying to avoid the four races with subscriber’s selections in and with two races with no form lines, I am left with the choice on the race to focus on. And given my previous comments regarded conditions of the course, who would be better than GILDED AGE to carry the colours in the 8:40.

Not seen on an artifice surface since March 2012 GILDED AGE has notched up a win on the turf and over obstacles and now find itself on a 3lb lower mark than when chasing The Absent Mare home over C&D in a Class 5 event.

The prevailing conditions will favour on grounds of stamina, the more favourable OR and the hope that Ian Mongan is jocked off in favour of Liam Keniry whose mount in the race has been declared a non-runner would be an added bonus for this 12-1 shot.     

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Tuesday 18th June 2013

18th June 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 6:10 Ladies Day At Kempton 07.09.2013 Apprentice Handicap Cl6 1m3f
99.9%	*	Aphrodite Spirit
98.6%		Duchess Of Dreams
98.5%		Alpine Mysteries
97.8%		Mastered				❶
97.4%		Running Bull
97.2%		See And Be Seen
97.1%		Dude Alert
97.1%		Mr Vendman
95.7%		Slip Of The Tongue

Is there racing at Ascot today?

Although not the fastest race for the grade on the card at Kempton Park: that honour surprisingly was recorded by Poyle Thomas in the 3yo+ Maiden: the most eye catching performance of the day has to go to 3yo Great Crested who showed a blistering turn of foot to blitz its rival in the 5:30

As my top rated, a winning performance was not unexpected but the

Princes Reward from the absent Skolar

It was good to see so many subscribers paying attention to the non-runners and a lesson for others to follow at Kempton Park yesterday afternoon when London Skolar came out of the 4:30.

I have to admit that I may have tried the patience of many with the infrequency and results of qualifiers for the

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Monday 17th June 2013

17th June 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 2:30 Conor Maynard Live At Kempton 14.09.13 Handicap Cl6 1m2f
102.1%		Time Square	99.6%	(3)
101.4%		Having A Ball	100.5%	(8)		❶
100.6%		Dolly Colman	98.0%	(1)
100.0%		Poetry Writer
99.5%		Minstrel Lad	98.5%	(1)		❶
99.5%		Barathea Dancer
99.1%	*	Buaiteoir
98.5%		Catchanova
98.4%		True Pleasure				❶
97.9%		Tyrur Ted	98.5%	(1)
97.9%		Bull Five	97.9%	(1)		❶
97.1%		Rasteau	98.4%	(1)
96.6%		Queenie´s Star
96.3%		Compton Bird				❶

Aye Aye Skipper Beschizza, Dead ahead to keep Kempton Park 100%

Having already completed a double here at Kempton Park, once over today’s course and distance and more recently showing plenty of dash to win over 6f, I am hopeful that ADMIRALOFTHESEA will sail past its rivals to maintain its 100% Kempton Park record.

ADMIRALOFTHESEAS’s 7f win was in a pedestrian paced race where it was still on the bridle while its three 0-65 rivals came under a drive. The 6f win came in similar company and once again ADMIRALOFTHESEA showed a good and sustained turn of foot under a strong drive by Adam Beschizza who did no more than to keep his mounts head in front at the line.

In two 7 furlong turf runs since ADMIRALOFTHESEA has finished 2^nd in a 0-75 and an excusable run over Leicester’s straight 7f. Back on a turning track on this surface I think will play to the strengths of the selection at a reasonable 8-1     

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Saturday 15th June 2013

15th June 2013 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 5:55 Complete Plumbing Median Auction Maiden Fillies´ Stakes Cl6 5f
96.6%	*	Oxlip
		Boston Alex
		Cockney Belle
		Disko
		Green Music
		Hatti
		Local Flier
		Senorita Guest
		Spider Lily
		Tautira

Those that get rolling late wont gather Moss

Having won both of its last two starts I am sure that Resonare will look very appealing in Lingfield Parks 18:55. There was little depth in the field when winning over a straight 6f on the turf at York last time out and there was little depth to the field when winning over Wolverhampton’s 5f and I personally wouldn't want to take the 9-4 available, tackling 7f for the first time.

My preference would be to side with the consistency offered over this trip by MOSS HILL and think the course will play to its strengths.

Forgetting and forgiving MOSS HILL’S last turf run which subsequently saw its mark back to where it was when finishing second twice over Wolverhampton’s 7f after leading on both occasion only to be caught in the final strides.

Both races returned respectable times for the grade against a standard of horse a higher caliber than that encountered by the favourite. With the bonus of 7-1 currently on offer and form over the trip, I fully expect MOSS HILL to keep its head in front at the line.  

Willy Twiston-Davies gets on top and beats maiden!

After a meeting of miserable results at Kempton Park last night it came as no surprise when compiling my speed figures to find the course to have been running on the testing side. This was more surprising given that rain that fell prior to the meeting!

We witnessed a long term maiden just failing to hold on to record the ultimate goal in Princess Willow and three horses winning on their first appearance on an artifice surface.

It was in Princess Willow’s race that we saw the performance of the evening in Golden Jubilee. The field were strung out very early due to the fast pace set by Jack Firefly before Princess Willow struck for home turning in to the straight. Golden Jubilee at that stage appeared to be floundering and dropping back from a prominent position under William Twiston-Davies.

At the two furlong pole Golden Jubilee found space and picked up to outstayed Princess Willow scoring only its second victory in 17 runs by a comfortable 2.1/4 lengths at the line. This is a horse that be well suited to Southwell and fast run handicaps.    

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Figures - Wednesday 12th June 2013

12th June 2013 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 6:10 Irish Night On 10.07.13 Apprentice Handicap Cl5 1m
100.8%		Tartan Trip	101.2%	(5)		❶
100.3%	*	Jake The Snake	100.5%	(7)		❶
99.9%		Spitfire
99.8%		Midnight Feast				❶
99.7%		Mataajir	97.8%	(1)
99.1%		Edgewater	100.0%	(4)
98.5%		High On The Hog	98.5%	(3)		❷

Putting our faith in Saints and Princess's at Kempton Park tonight!

Without a doubt the performance of yesterday evenings Lingfield Park card was that of Press Room. Not just in terms of my pocket, but in recording a very admirable time when considering conditions and grade of race. There would be no surprise in seeing Press Room stepped up in trip or equally effective back over this trip on a course with a longer straight allowing this Street Cry colt to get fully in to stride.

On what looks to be a very attractive card at Kempton Park it would be hard to pin point a single selection in favour of others, so avoiding races with subscribers selections would like to offer three horses that take my eye.

The first of which appears to be an extremely enticing price at 10-1 in Kempton Park’s 19:40. A model of consistency and very capable in this company, PRINCESS WILLOW chased home Cape Alex on its last turn on the surface before returning to turf, running poorly on soft ground. The return to the All Weather over 11 furlongs is more appealing for this 18 race maiden!

In the next (8:40) I have several plays in including a back to lay but will bring your attention to another 10-1 in the form of ST PAUL DE VENCE. Excusing the two turf runs, this selections winning Maiden has thrown up 5 winners from the 5 horses nearest at the finish. Given that the victory was a fascicle success against such company would suggest coming back to this surface may have the desired re occurrence of that performance.

Last, but not least, it is hard to ignore the claims of the favourite in Kempton’s 20:40. Having opened at 10-3, there have already been nibbles for FLEXIBLE FLYER. This looks to be marginally easier company than FLEXIBLE FLYER has met on turf on the last two outings and returning to this surface where it is already a distance winner is key to the chances.

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Figures - Tuesday 11th June 2013

11th June 2013 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets, the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions 6:00 Three Bridges Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl5 5f
99.5%	*	Go Glamorous				❶
97.7%		Flying Bear				❷
		Red House
		Vanvidd
		Faye Belle				❶
		Oakley Dancer				❻
		Umneyati				❶