THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 26th March KEMPTON PARK- 27th March WOLVERHAMPTON- 29th March WOLVERHAMPTON - 30th March LINGFIELD PARK, KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 31st March WOLVERHAMPTON & CHELMSFORD CITY - 1ST aPRIL LINGFIELD PARK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 2nd April KEMPTON PARK -

What are the odds for The Actuary returning a profit for the eight month in a row?

Another disappointing day with our only solace being we were obviously in good company as we watched the 8-1 advised on Inniscastle Boy knocked all the way down to 10-3 favourite at the off. Rather than inspire confidence when I see market moves of this nature, it fills my head with conspiracy theories before the race is even run.

How much would it cost to stop a horse in a Class 6 £1,700 Handicap?

Call me a skeptic but I am happier to see my horse drift than shorten.

After racing yesterday evening I received an email from a guy that joined the service just over a month ago asking

Hi Mark, this is a long losing run of the bigger prices other than a couple of favs. Whats your view?  

I dare say others are asking similar questions so rather than reply privately I thought it prudent to share my perspective on our current run and how psychological this plays a massive part in why most bettors do lose. 

After reading the email I went through my betting accounts to give real accuracy to the figures I am about to share with you so this is a warts'n'all view based upon points not pounds.

SEPTEMBER
-27.35
AUGUST
73.38
JULY
34.25
JUNE
41.24
MAY
23.45
APRIL
48.42
MARCH
12.58
FEBRUARY
62.79
JANUARY
-17.95

250.80

For those fairly new to the service you can multiplying your stakes by the above to get some idea of performance over 2012 i.e. August to £10 stakes would be £733.80, £20 stakes £1,467.60 and so on. The reason I wanted to put these figures up is to STOP any 'Glass is half empty' feelings and show that the glass is half full. We have come off the back of a long winning run but are not in a long losing run.  

Remember also that when we win, we win multiple points, when we are losing, we lose a point per bet. On the 28th August we had a 3 point selection Dubai Sunshine at 9-1 which provided a 27 point win. The current deficit, as undesirable and poor timed as it is can disappear over night. This is the psychological side of betting that bedevils most punters and an obstacle you have to overcome, safe in the knowledge that for seven months this methodical approach has provided a profit and has made a profit ever year since 2008. Unfortunately human nature causes us to view current events as the norm regardless of how infrequent they are.

We have 9 more meetings in September and I remain hopeful that we will return a profit for the 8th month in a row.


      

Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

What are the odds for The Actuary returning a profit for the eight month in a row?

Another disappointing day with our only solace being we were obviously in good company as we watched the 8-1 advised on Inniscastle Boy knocked all the way down to 10-3 favourite at the off. Rather than inspire confidence when I see market moves of this nature, it fills my head with conspiracy theories before the race is even run.

How much would it cost to stop a horse in a Class 6 £1,700 Handicap?

Call me a skeptic but I am happier to see my horse drift than shorten.

After racing yesterday evening I received an email from a guy that joined the service just over a month ago asking

Hi Mark, this is a long losing run of the bigger prices other than a couple of favs. Whats your view?  

I dare say others are asking similar questions so rather than reply privately I thought it prudent to share my perspective on our current run and how psychological this plays a massive part in why most bettors do lose. 

After reading the email I went through my betting accounts to give real accuracy to the figures I am about to share with you so this is a warts'n'all view based upon points not pounds.

SEPTEMBER
-27.35
AUGUST
73.38
JULY
34.25
JUNE
41.24
MAY
23.45
APRIL
48.42
MARCH
12.58
FEBRUARY
62.79
JANUARY
-17.95

250.80

For those fairly new to the service you can multiplying your stakes by the above to get some idea of performance over 2012 i.e. August to £10 stakes would be £733.80, £20 stakes £1,467.60 and so on. The reason I wanted to put these figures up is to STOP any 'Glass is half empty' feelings and show that the glass is half full. We have come off the back of a long winning run but are not in a long losing run.  

Remember also that when we win, we win multiple points, when we are losing, we lose a point per bet. On the 28th August we had a 3 point selection Dubai Sunshine at 9-1 which provided a 27 point win. The current deficit, as undesirable and poor timed as it is can disappear over night. This is the psychological side of betting that bedevils most punters and an obstacle you have to overcome, safe in the knowledge that for seven months this methodical approach has provided a profit and has made a profit ever year since 2008. Unfortunately human nature causes us to view current events as the norm regardless of how infrequent they are.

We have 9 more meetings in September and I remain hopeful that we will return a profit for the 8th month in a row.