.
The Marias, HTTP://HORSE--RACING--TIPS.BLOGSPOT.COM THE ACTUARY The Actuary, HTTP://HORSE--RACING--TIPS.BLOGSPOT.COM THE ACTUARY Speed & Class, HTTP://HORSE--RACING--TIPS.BLOGSPOT.COM THE ACTUARY Trip Handicap, HTTP://HORSE--RACING--TIPS.BLOGSPOT.COM THE ACTUARY
The profitablity of each subscription service above is taken from 1st October 2011 and is based upon £20 level stakes

IMPORTANT NOTICE!

From 1st March 2012 The Actuary Speed Figures have become available ONLY to subscribers of any one of the above tipping services.

Horse Racing Tips: Kempton Park 11th January 2011

All Weather horse racing is set to take place at Kempton Park racecourse on the evening of Wednesday 11th January 2012. A card of eight races is scheduled to begin at 16:15. The ground is officially described as Standard. Weather at Kempton Park is forecast to be mostly cloudy. Below are betting tips and speed handicap figures for each of today’s races compiled by The Actuary our resident horse racing tipster.Today's horse racing results will appear alongside the first three shortly after the meeting ends!
4:15 Free Entry For Betdaq Members Handicap Cl7 5f
98.5% * Pavement Games 98.7%
98.4% Lisselton Cross 98.9%
98.3% Brian Sprout 99.6%
98.2% Deveze 1ST 12-1
97.5% Porthgwidden Beach 99.1% 3RD 4-1
97.1% Pharoh Jake 2ND 14-1
96.7% Cara Carmela 97.0%
96.6% Papageno 97.6%
96.3% Lady Royal Oak 97.2%
94.4% Avonvalley
91.2% Lois Lane 95.2%

4:45 Betdaq Multiples Handicap Cl5 1m2f
101.3% Dazzling Valentine
101.1% * Nibani 101.8% 1ST 5-2  S+C 
101.0% Megalala 101.1% 3RD 6-1
99.8% Cheylesmore
99.6% Lisahane Bog 101.4%
99.0% Focail Maith 2ND 9-2
98.1% Bengal Tiger 98.1%
97.7% Rocky Elsom
Sergeant Troy

5:15 Back Or Lay At betdaq.com Handicap Cl4 5f
100.7% * Earlsmedic 99.5%
100.4% Diamond Charlie 100.7% NON RUNNER
100.1% Desert Strike 99.9%
99.4% Titus Gent
99.3% Island Legend 99.6%
98.7% Sir Geoffrey 99.9% 3RD 12-1
98.5% Cadeaux Pearl 1ST 7-1
97.9% Best Trip 99.2%
97.2% Kylladdie 99.3%
90.7% Volcanic Dust 99.9%
West Coast Dream 2ND 12-1

5:45 Betdaq Mobile Apps Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 6f
98.7% Mister Mackenzie 3RD 4-1
98.7% Gabrial´s Bounty 2ND 8-1
98.3% * Maria Montez
97.8% Dark Castle 1ST 6-5
97.7% * House Limit 95.2%
96.9% Sleepy Lucy
95.9% Gem Of Wizdom 95.2%
Abi Scarlet
Casa Bex
Cats Eyes

6:15 Book Now For Saturday Handicap (Div I) Cl6 6f
101.2% * Meia Noite
99.9% Belinsky 100.6% 1ST 9-2
99.6% Dvinsky 100.1% 3RD 11-1
99.5% Ermyntrude
99.4% Welsh Inlet
98.9% Dingaan 100.1%
98.9% Shawkantango 98.9%
98.8% Replicator 99.7%
98.5% Dickie Le Davoir 100.6%
97.1% Memphis Man 99.3% 2ND 25-1
95.3% Darwin Star 97.5%

6:45 Book Now For Saturday Handicap (Div II) Cl6 6f
100.2% * Diamond Vine 99.2% NON RUNNER
99.7% Mack´s Sister 99.8%
99.6% Welcome Approach 100.0%
99.6% Vhujon 99.8% 1ST 14-1
99.4% Microlight
99.2% Demoiselle Bond 97.5%
99.2% Smoky Cloud
98.8% First In Command 99.5%
98.7% White Shift 99.1%
98.4% Torres Del Paine 99.7% 2ND 4-1
96.8% Rapid Water 98.9% 3RD 11-2

7:15 skysports.com Fillies´ Handicap Cl5 7f
100.5% * Nina Rose
100.3% Gold Tobougg 3RD 11-4
99.4% Efisio Princess
99.3% Perfect Ch´I 99.7%
99.0% Fedora 99.5% 1ST 8-1
97.1% Bold Ring 99.8% 2ND 10-1
96.4% Toms River Tess 97.1%
Casternova

7:45 skysports.com Racing Handicap Cl7 7f
99.0% Blueberry Fizz 97.2% 2ND 11-4
98.4% Welsh Dancer
98.0% Lovat Lane 97.0%
97.8% * Heading To First
97.7% Evening Pinot
97.7% My Best Man 98.5% 1ST 12-1
97.2% Royal Envoy 98.7%
97.1% Cairanne 97.3%
96.9% Kenswick 98.4%
96.5% Jackie Love 98.5%
96.4% Raimond Ridge
95.8% Ocean Countess 98.8% 3RD 10-1
Noinformation


Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Hello The Actuary

I must admit it's the first time I've seen this thread & personally I don't get involved too much in all-weather racing but I must commend you on the tremendous effort you put in & clearly you have a great knowledge & understanding of all-weather racing. I am certain that loads off gg.com members are finding this to be incredibly useful & benefitting from your work and this again illustrates the strengths & qualities of gg.com - all members prepared & willing to put time & effort in with the aim of helping fellow members achieve betting success & improve their knowledge. You have clearly had some very good results with your work & I commend you for that as I am sure all my fellow gg.com members do. You commented on

"it being a very disappointing last week. if it teaches me anything it will be to take nothing for granted" -

Now you said you made a profit in October so there is no need to worry or feel disappointment at a poor last week because that is the way when you study in depth because you can spend hours working on something only for it to all go wrong in a couple of minutes in a football match or matter of seconds in a horse race - I spend hours studying my football selections each week & yet in recent weeks it has been very frustrating with some poor results but that is not down to me doing things wrong but more to do with the random nature of football dictating that ultimately anything can & will happen. Horse races & football matches are random events that however much we assess & how much detailed analysis we do, the ultimate event is completely out of our control & as you quite rightly said you can take nothing for granted - horses that look certain to win easy run poorly, teams that look certain to win 3 or 4-0 lose 1-0 - that is the nature of sport & that is the nature of betting.As I said, I think the work you are doing is very informative & useful to gg.com members, so on behalf of my fellow members, here is a gg.com salute for you to show our appreciation.

THE ACTUARY - WE SALUTE YOU!!!

All the best with your all-weather bets & if I am considering having a bet on the all-weather I will definitely look for your work first to help me make my mind up.

Tommy

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Horse Racing Tips: Kempton Park 11th January 2011

All Weather horse racing is set to take place at Kempton Park racecourse on the evening of Wednesday 11th January 2012. A card of eight races is scheduled to begin at 16:15. The ground is officially described as Standard. Weather at Kempton Park is forecast to be mostly cloudy. Below are betting tips and speed handicap figures for each of today’s races compiled by The Actuary our resident horse racing tipster.Today's horse racing results will appear alongside the first three shortly after the meeting ends!
4:15 Free Entry For Betdaq Members Handicap Cl7 5f
98.5% * Pavement Games 98.7%
98.4% Lisselton Cross 98.9%
98.3% Brian Sprout 99.6%
98.2% Deveze 1ST 12-1
97.5% Porthgwidden Beach 99.1% 3RD 4-1
97.1% Pharoh Jake 2ND 14-1
96.7% Cara Carmela 97.0%
96.6% Papageno 97.6%
96.3% Lady Royal Oak 97.2%
94.4% Avonvalley
91.2% Lois Lane 95.2%

4:45 Betdaq Multiples Handicap Cl5 1m2f
101.3% Dazzling Valentine
101.1% * Nibani 101.8% 1ST 5-2  S+C 
101.0% Megalala 101.1% 3RD 6-1
99.8% Cheylesmore
99.6% Lisahane Bog 101.4%
99.0% Focail Maith 2ND 9-2
98.1% Bengal Tiger 98.1%
97.7% Rocky Elsom
Sergeant Troy

5:15 Back Or Lay At betdaq.com Handicap Cl4 5f
100.7% * Earlsmedic 99.5%
100.4% Diamond Charlie 100.7% NON RUNNER
100.1% Desert Strike 99.9%
99.4% Titus Gent
99.3% Island Legend 99.6%
98.7% Sir Geoffrey 99.9% 3RD 12-1
98.5% Cadeaux Pearl 1ST 7-1
97.9% Best Trip 99.2%
97.2% Kylladdie 99.3%
90.7% Volcanic Dust 99.9%
West Coast Dream 2ND 12-1

5:45 Betdaq Mobile Apps Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 6f
98.7% Mister Mackenzie 3RD 4-1
98.7% Gabrial´s Bounty 2ND 8-1
98.3% * Maria Montez
97.8% Dark Castle 1ST 6-5
97.7% * House Limit 95.2%
96.9% Sleepy Lucy
95.9% Gem Of Wizdom 95.2%
Abi Scarlet
Casa Bex
Cats Eyes

6:15 Book Now For Saturday Handicap (Div I) Cl6 6f
101.2% * Meia Noite
99.9% Belinsky 100.6% 1ST 9-2
99.6% Dvinsky 100.1% 3RD 11-1
99.5% Ermyntrude
99.4% Welsh Inlet
98.9% Dingaan 100.1%
98.9% Shawkantango 98.9%
98.8% Replicator 99.7%
98.5% Dickie Le Davoir 100.6%
97.1% Memphis Man 99.3% 2ND 25-1
95.3% Darwin Star 97.5%

6:45 Book Now For Saturday Handicap (Div II) Cl6 6f
100.2% * Diamond Vine 99.2% NON RUNNER
99.7% Mack´s Sister 99.8%
99.6% Welcome Approach 100.0%
99.6% Vhujon 99.8% 1ST 14-1
99.4% Microlight
99.2% Demoiselle Bond 97.5%
99.2% Smoky Cloud
98.8% First In Command 99.5%
98.7% White Shift 99.1%
98.4% Torres Del Paine 99.7% 2ND 4-1
96.8% Rapid Water 98.9% 3RD 11-2

7:15 skysports.com Fillies´ Handicap Cl5 7f
100.5% * Nina Rose
100.3% Gold Tobougg 3RD 11-4
99.4% Efisio Princess
99.3% Perfect Ch´I 99.7%
99.0% Fedora 99.5% 1ST 8-1
97.1% Bold Ring 99.8% 2ND 10-1
96.4% Toms River Tess 97.1%
Casternova

7:45 skysports.com Racing Handicap Cl7 7f
99.0% Blueberry Fizz 97.2% 2ND 11-4
98.4% Welsh Dancer
98.0% Lovat Lane 97.0%
97.8% * Heading To First
97.7% Evening Pinot
97.7% My Best Man 98.5% 1ST 12-1
97.2% Royal Envoy 98.7%
97.1% Cairanne 97.3%
96.9% Kenswick 98.4%
96.5% Jackie Love 98.5%
96.4% Raimond Ridge
95.8% Ocean Countess 98.8% 3RD 10-1
Noinformation


Posted by at 9:30 PM
Labels: ,
Horse Racing - Trip Down Memory Lane

As there is no AWT racing until Monday 13th I decided to do some research and while thumbing through some old racing books found an old page from Raceform which bought back a great memory from my past carefully folded within the pages.
How attractive a proposition was Pipssalio. Still a Maiden after 4 outings, its 3 outings as a 2yo read beaten 16 lengths in Class 5 3k Novice, beaten 16 lengths in a Class 6 2k Maiden, Beaten 14 lengths in a Class 4 3k Maiden. 1 outing as a 3yo beaten ½ length in a Class 4 4k Handicap. Looked to be way out of its depth being entered in a Class 3 14k Handicap. Pipssalio was 10lb out of the handicap and the jockey (Francis Norton) was putting up 2lb over weight.

My speed figures told me a different story. In fact I can remember being so bullish I was nailing my colours to the mast on all the forums and to the Raceform. This for me was the outstanding bet of the following day, the outstanding bet of the week and of the month. I went to bed unable to sleep with anticipation for the following day fully confident I would be making a lot of money. As soon as I got up on the day of the race I started checking the prices to ensure the tissue given the evening before was correct. Pipssalio was still 20-1.

The time of the race had arrived and in horror I watched as Pipssalio fell out of the stalls. By the time they had reached half-way in the 1 mile contest it was flat to the boards well adrift of the rest of the field with Franny Norton rowing away and beating the horse to death!

My feelings at the time were partly embarrassment due to the comments I had made on various forums , partly anger and all confidence in my ability to create meaningful speed figures gone in 60 seconds but being the eternal optimist still a slither of hope.

With 2 furlongs to go Pipssalio started to reduce the gap. With a furlong to go the rest of the field started to paddle and Pipssalio appeared to have sprouted wings and was closing on the leaders at an unbelievable rate. As they flashed passed the post Franny Norton had driven Pipssalio between the two leaders to make a three way photo finish. Even though I believed Pipssalio had got there it was going to be on the nod. Pipssalio got the verdict beating 2nd Everest by a short-head who in turn had beaten 3rd Tumbleweed Tor by a short-head.

That is the margin between winning or losing. The difference between the feeling of abject failure and believing you can walk on water.