I hope this article will offer a different stance and
approach as well as highlighting inadequacies in how we consider and measure a draw
bias.
The racecourses with draw biases are well documented and
attempts are made to unravel how a race is likely to unfold based upon statistical
analysis of stall numbers. This information in isolation is more likely to
muddy the waters than provide a definitive crystal clear solution.
Recent articles I have written on the subject highlighted
the need to know the calibre of horse that went into the stall before we are
truly able to take measurement.
In previous examples I sited a scenario where over a period
of time strongly fancied horses appeared in unfavourable stalls and went on to
win. Against poor opposition, this would give rather a skewed view on the true
draw bias. Equally the reverse, where poor horses are housed in what appear to
be unfavourable stalls will again dilute the accuracy of any analysis.
Measuring the quality of horse going in to a stall would indeed
be a major improvement on blindly accepting a runner’s to winner’s ratio for
each stall but the means used in attempting to measure the quality of a horse will always
be contentious. Although the theory is
sound, unless we can ensure the integrity of the end product the time and
effort will be wasted.
My personal stance has also moved on regarding both cause
and effect.
I will take for granted that we all accept that a selection should
be made prior to considering the draw and not as a result of the draw. The true
cause and effect are in reality a product of the running style of our selection
and its opponents.
As an example, a horse drawn 10,11,12,13 or 14 at any of the
four All Weather courses in the UK would be viewed as disadvantaged by varying
degrees dependant on distance. Would we still feel disadvantaged if the horse’s
running style was to be held up? I would
suggest not. Alternatively, if the horse
had a prominent running style, the effect of the draw would be decided by the
running style of those to its inside. The more prominent runners, the more
difficult it will be for the horse to adopt its usual running style without expending
a great deal of energy.
This can never be an exact science as trainers chop and
change the tactics on horses, but you will find that in most races the vast
majority of horses will adopt their usual running styles. Armed with the running style of each horse, we
are able to paint a picture of the degree our horse may be disadvantaged.
The method I have devised as a potential solution and to
provide a definitive view on whether a selection is likely to be penalised by
the draw is to apportion points to each horse.
3 = Lead
2 = Prominent
1 = Held Up
This information is input into my
database with each day’s results. When preparing future races my spreadsheet
calculates an average for each horse’s likely running style.
8:35 32REDPOKER.COM HANDICAP
|
|||
1
|
100.5%
|
Elusive Warrior
|
2
|
2
|
98.2%
|
St Ignatius
|
2
|
3
|
98.4%
|
Gracie´s Gift
|
1
|
4
|
98.7%
|
Tenancy
|
3
|
5
|
101.7%
|
Amtired
|
1
|
6
|
Prices Lane
|
1
|
|
7
|
96.7%
|
Bishopbriggs
|
1
|
8
|
98.8%
|
Scruffy Skip
|
1
|
9
|
100.8%
|
Crocodile Bay
|
1
|
10
|
98.1%
|
Vogarth
|
2
|
11
|
98.0%
|
Minortransgression
|
2
|
12
|
100.3%
|
Clever Omneya
|
2
|
13
|
100.5%
|
Norcroft
|
1
|
14
|
98.7%
|
Caldermud
|
1
|
In the example above we have a 7 furlong handicap at
Southwell with the draw to the left of each horse’s name followed by my speed
figures. To the right of the horse’s name we have our draw data.
Tenancy is the likely pace with Elusive
Warrior, St Ignatius, Vogarth, Minortransgression and Clever Omneya having a preference to be
prominent. If you know Southwell like I know Southwell (no I am not going to
burst in to song!) you would have to agree that the number of hold up horses
points to potential traffic problems and those on the front end likely to hold
a distinct advantage on this surface.
In practice Elusive Warrior lead chased
by Clever Omneya who had to use little reserves to get across from stall 12 with
only 5 horses with a prominent racing style inside.
I cannot profess to having backed
Clever Omneya but I was prevented from backing my top rated, Amtired, who did not get daylight until the
leaders had flown!
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