THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 26th March KEMPTON PARK- 27th March WOLVERHAMPTON- 29th March WOLVERHAMPTON - 30th March LINGFIELD PARK, KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 31st March WOLVERHAMPTON & CHELMSFORD CITY - 1ST aPRIL LINGFIELD PARK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 2nd April KEMPTON PARK -

Horse Racing Tips: Badly Drawn Horse

Although this article was written specifically for my area of expertise, UK All Weather horse racing courses, I am sure that its application can be used at other race courses.

I hope this article will offer a different stance and approach as well as highlighting inadequacies in how we consider and measure a draw bias.

The racecourses with draw biases are well documented and attempts are made to unravel how a race is likely to unfold based upon statistical analysis of stall numbers. This information in isolation is more likely to muddy the waters than provide a definitive crystal clear solution.

Recent articles I have written on the subject highlighted the need to know the calibre of horse that went into the stall before we are truly able to take measurement.  

In previous examples I sited a scenario where over a period of time strongly fancied horses appeared in unfavourable stalls and went on to win. Against poor opposition, this would give rather a skewed view on the true draw bias. Equally the reverse, where poor horses are housed in what appear to be unfavourable stalls will again dilute the accuracy of any analysis.

Measuring the quality of horse going in to a stall would indeed be a major improvement on blindly accepting a runner’s to winner’s ratio for each stall but the means used in attempting to measure the quality of a horse will always be contentious.  Although the theory is sound, unless we can ensure the integrity of the end product the time and effort will be wasted.

My personal stance has also moved on regarding both cause and effect.  

I will take for granted that we all accept that a selection should be made prior to considering the draw and not as a result of the draw. The true cause and effect are in reality a product of the running style of our selection and its opponents.

As an example, a horse drawn 10,11,12,13 or 14 at any of the four All Weather courses in the UK would be viewed as disadvantaged by varying degrees dependant on distance. Would we still feel disadvantaged if the horse’s running style was to be held up?  I would suggest not.  Alternatively, if the horse had a prominent running style, the effect of the draw would be decided by the running style of those to its inside. The more prominent runners, the more difficult it will be for the horse to adopt its usual running style without expending a great deal of energy.

This can never be an exact science as trainers chop and change the tactics on horses, but you will find that in most races the vast majority of horses will adopt their usual running styles.  Armed with the running style of each horse, we are able to paint a picture of the degree our horse may be disadvantaged.

The method I have devised as a potential solution and to provide a definitive view on whether a selection is likely to be penalised by the draw is to apportion points to each horse.

3 = Lead
2 = Prominent
1 = Held Up
This information is input into my database with each day’s results. When preparing future races my spreadsheet calculates an average for each horse’s likely running style.

8:35 32REDPOKER.COM HANDICAP
1
100.5%
Elusive Warrior
2
2
98.2%
St Ignatius
2
3
98.4%
Gracie´s Gift
1
4
98.7%
Tenancy
3
5
101.7%
Amtired
1
6

Prices Lane
1
7
96.7%
Bishopbriggs
1
8
98.8%
Scruffy Skip
1
9
100.8%
Crocodile Bay
1
10
98.1%
Vogarth
2
11
98.0%
Minortransgression
2
12
100.3%
Clever Omneya
2
13
100.5%
Norcroft
1
14
98.7%
Caldermud
1

In the example above we have a 7 furlong handicap at Southwell with the draw to the left of each horse’s name followed by my speed figures. To the right of the horse’s name we have our draw data.

Tenancy is the likely pace with Elusive Warrior, St Ignatius, Vogarth, Minortransgression  and Clever Omneya having a preference to be prominent. If you know Southwell like I know Southwell (no I am not going to burst in to song!) you would have to agree that the number of hold up horses points to potential traffic problems and those on the front end likely to hold a distinct advantage on this surface.

In practice Elusive Warrior lead chased by Clever Omneya who had to use little reserves to get across from stall 12 with only 5 horses with a prominent racing style inside.

I cannot profess to having backed Clever Omneya but I was prevented from backing my top rated,  Amtired, who did not get daylight until the leaders had flown! 

Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Horse Racing Tips: Badly Drawn Horse

Although this article was written specifically for my area of expertise, UK All Weather horse racing courses, I am sure that its application can be used at other race courses.

I hope this article will offer a different stance and approach as well as highlighting inadequacies in how we consider and measure a draw bias.

The racecourses with draw biases are well documented and attempts are made to unravel how a race is likely to unfold based upon statistical analysis of stall numbers. This information in isolation is more likely to muddy the waters than provide a definitive crystal clear solution.

Recent articles I have written on the subject highlighted the need to know the calibre of horse that went into the stall before we are truly able to take measurement.  

In previous examples I sited a scenario where over a period of time strongly fancied horses appeared in unfavourable stalls and went on to win. Against poor opposition, this would give rather a skewed view on the true draw bias. Equally the reverse, where poor horses are housed in what appear to be unfavourable stalls will again dilute the accuracy of any analysis.

Measuring the quality of horse going in to a stall would indeed be a major improvement on blindly accepting a runner’s to winner’s ratio for each stall but the means used in attempting to measure the quality of a horse will always be contentious.  Although the theory is sound, unless we can ensure the integrity of the end product the time and effort will be wasted.

My personal stance has also moved on regarding both cause and effect.  

I will take for granted that we all accept that a selection should be made prior to considering the draw and not as a result of the draw. The true cause and effect are in reality a product of the running style of our selection and its opponents.

As an example, a horse drawn 10,11,12,13 or 14 at any of the four All Weather courses in the UK would be viewed as disadvantaged by varying degrees dependant on distance. Would we still feel disadvantaged if the horse’s running style was to be held up?  I would suggest not.  Alternatively, if the horse had a prominent running style, the effect of the draw would be decided by the running style of those to its inside. The more prominent runners, the more difficult it will be for the horse to adopt its usual running style without expending a great deal of energy.

This can never be an exact science as trainers chop and change the tactics on horses, but you will find that in most races the vast majority of horses will adopt their usual running styles.  Armed with the running style of each horse, we are able to paint a picture of the degree our horse may be disadvantaged.

The method I have devised as a potential solution and to provide a definitive view on whether a selection is likely to be penalised by the draw is to apportion points to each horse.

3 = Lead
2 = Prominent
1 = Held Up
This information is input into my database with each day’s results. When preparing future races my spreadsheet calculates an average for each horse’s likely running style.

8:35 32REDPOKER.COM HANDICAP
1
100.5%
Elusive Warrior
2
2
98.2%
St Ignatius
2
3
98.4%
Gracie´s Gift
1
4
98.7%
Tenancy
3
5
101.7%
Amtired
1
6

Prices Lane
1
7
96.7%
Bishopbriggs
1
8
98.8%
Scruffy Skip
1
9
100.8%
Crocodile Bay
1
10
98.1%
Vogarth
2
11
98.0%
Minortransgression
2
12
100.3%
Clever Omneya
2
13
100.5%
Norcroft
1
14
98.7%
Caldermud
1

In the example above we have a 7 furlong handicap at Southwell with the draw to the left of each horse’s name followed by my speed figures. To the right of the horse’s name we have our draw data.

Tenancy is the likely pace with Elusive Warrior, St Ignatius, Vogarth, Minortransgression  and Clever Omneya having a preference to be prominent. If you know Southwell like I know Southwell (no I am not going to burst in to song!) you would have to agree that the number of hold up horses points to potential traffic problems and those on the front end likely to hold a distinct advantage on this surface.

In practice Elusive Warrior lead chased by Clever Omneya who had to use little reserves to get across from stall 12 with only 5 horses with a prominent racing style inside.

I cannot profess to having backed Clever Omneya but I was prevented from backing my top rated,  Amtired, who did not get daylight until the leaders had flown!