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How to lose a race without having to go before the stewards

When we are looking at how a race is won and lost our focus centres primarily on the middle to the business end of a race. There is little doubt that this is also where the stewards focus their attention. I mean, have you ever heard of a jockey being given a day for removing a hood too late or for being asleep when the gate opens.

The sectional times introduced at Lingfield Park have been most enlightening on how a race can be lost in the first furlong. Whether by design or misfortune, I think the start of a race should be given greater scrutiny by the powers to be.

From a standing start you would expect the opening sectional time to be the slowest part of a race, but when you look at the range of times recorded in the first furlong and weigh them against the average range of times recorded over the final 3 furlongs you start to understand how mischief can be managed most affectively in the opening salvo.

I could provide several races from each day at Lingfield Park since sectional times have been returned at the course: 12th February 2014, but here is a typical example of what is happening on a daily basis:


Polar Express and Jazz Bay are heavily restrained in the opening furlong and concede upwards of 0.74 of a second to the leader. If we remove Polar Express first furlong from its sectional times it is fastest over the following 6 furlongs ( avg 12.61) and is fastest over the final 3 furlongs ( avg 12.97). You would have to conclude that it was the restraining of the horse in the first furlong that lost it the race.
  
If a jockey gives a horse a violent tug in the final furlong of a race, he goes before the stewards. Do it at the beginning of a race and you have a whole list of plausible excuses. I would seriously suggest if you are working with the sectional times to remove the opening furlong from any calculations and use them for reference only.

Have a great days racing and watch out for those tardy starters ;)


Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Wednesday, March 05, 2014

How to lose a race without having to go before the stewards

When we are looking at how a race is won and lost our focus centres primarily on the middle to the business end of a race. There is little doubt that this is also where the stewards focus their attention. I mean, have you ever heard of a jockey being given a day for removing a hood too late or for being asleep when the gate opens.

The sectional times introduced at Lingfield Park have been most enlightening on how a race can be lost in the first furlong. Whether by design or misfortune, I think the start of a race should be given greater scrutiny by the powers to be.

From a standing start you would expect the opening sectional time to be the slowest part of a race, but when you look at the range of times recorded in the first furlong and weigh them against the average range of times recorded over the final 3 furlongs you start to understand how mischief can be managed most affectively in the opening salvo.

I could provide several races from each day at Lingfield Park since sectional times have been returned at the course: 12th February 2014, but here is a typical example of what is happening on a daily basis:


Polar Express and Jazz Bay are heavily restrained in the opening furlong and concede upwards of 0.74 of a second to the leader. If we remove Polar Express first furlong from its sectional times it is fastest over the following 6 furlongs ( avg 12.61) and is fastest over the final 3 furlongs ( avg 12.97). You would have to conclude that it was the restraining of the horse in the first furlong that lost it the race.
  
If a jockey gives a horse a violent tug in the final furlong of a race, he goes before the stewards. Do it at the beginning of a race and you have a whole list of plausible excuses. I would seriously suggest if you are working with the sectional times to remove the opening furlong from any calculations and use them for reference only.

Have a great days racing and watch out for those tardy starters ;)