85-1 by a flared nostril. How to back a winner and end up miserable!

A non-de-script days racing came to life in the finale at Wolverhampton last night and just for a fleeting moment there was a feeling of landing the big prize. With the money already down having tipped up Aldeburgh to subscribers at 11-2 the previous evening, there was another play I was willing to make in the race that had been exciting me all day. 

Here are the figures that were posted for subscribers last night:

On the base figures it looks a race of many chances with 3 horses equally matched on their LTO performances. Captain Swift comes in to the equation based upon his 2 C&D runs and Noguchi with the highest competitive OR.

In comparison, looking at the sectional times, none of the afore mentioned have corroborating credentials with Aldeburgh, Sheriff Of Nawton and particularly Den Maschine taking the eye. I have already stated in a previous post, for negative reasons, that any horse with a pace figure of below 97% needs deeper investigation, so let’s investigate Den Maschine and see what excited me.

Having been off the track since 16^th October 2012, Den Maschine reappeared on 23rd January 2015 coming 4th of 4 by 3.5 lengths. A race in which it led and set the poor fractions that we are investigating.

It is what happened before its LTO which carries most interest. Its record over last night’s C&D reads 2nd, 1st, 1st 1st. Its last win was under the same jockey as last night and excusing its last run after a prolonged break, was never out of the money, or the first 2 in its previous 8 runs. Remember, this horse was 50-1 and even higher on the exchanges.

Of the other two candidates with high finishing speed LTO, we can discount Sherriff Of Nawton with its inferior ‘Pace’ and ‘Finish’ figures to Den Maschine. Aldeburgh looks the rival coming out of a race superior in ‘Pace’ and although my supposition that Den Maschine would lead did not come to fruition, the expectation led me to believe that Aldeburgh could improve its final burst off the slower fractions likely to be set by Den Maschine.

Having initial placed a 4 TBP bet at 5.3 Den Maschine the 85-1 exchange odds for the win drew me in shortly before the start. The adrenalin rush of watching your horse break free at 10-1 is a magical experience. Times it by 8.5 and you are on a rush so high that nothing can compare.

A snap of the fingers and I'm back at my desk! I truly can’t remember being as crestfallen after a race before as I received the result of the tight finish.

My 11-2 pay out on the winner and my 4 TBP @ 5.3 provided no solace as I re-ran the race over and over in my mind as I slept. It might only be Horse Racing but the emotions run deep and last far longer than the race itself. When I woke this morning my stomach dropped like I had just remembered losing a loved one!