In a magnificent week with double digit winners at 50-1,
22-1, 20-1, and last night rowing in with an 11-1 winner to add to the haul,
the number one question from subscribers this week relates to the increase in
the number of races carrying multiple selections for the ‘On The Money’ method.
Last night was no exception with one race carrying 2
selections (7:20) and one race (8:50) carrying three selections. It was the 8:50
which provided us with Innoko @ 11-1 with another of the selections Bridge That
Gap (8-1) finishing 2nd. The race is an excellent example of why there
has been a slight shift in the selection process.
Of all the four methods of selection the margins for ‘On The
Money’ are the finest. What has been noticeable over the years (since 2008) is
that all too frequently we are missing out on winners, in most cases big priced
winners, by very narrow margins in selecting only the top qualifying horse.
With a qualifying score of 20% (what this relates to is
irrelevant but has been carefully crafted ;) ) pictured here is how the 8:50 broke down:
Qualifiers in order were Bridge That Gap 24.5%, Lola Montez
21.7% and Innoko 21.4% and as tight as the finish was between Bridge The Gap (8-1) and Innoko (11-1) we would have been left extremely disappointed under the old rules!
In what might have been a miserable day, hitting the post
with Kelamita (10-1), Humour (11-8) and in my opinion the horse that should
have won the 8:20 Classic Villager (3-1) who appeared to lug in behind the
winner Jamie Osborne’s Life Less Ordinary until you see the head on which shows
the latter continually edging in to Classic Villager for the whole of the final
furlong stopping it from going past, Innoko was the difference. Having stood
still and using the old method of selection we would have been looking at
hitting the post again with Bridge The Gap (8-1).
On a poor day the selection of Innoko turned what could have
a 9 point loss into 3 points gained at SP’s. A five year history would suggest
that these big priced winners are not a blip, more an example of what the
method is going to keep providing for us, more big priced winners and more selections. This will comprise strike rate With 5 races having ‘On The Money’
selections tonight I am hopeful of a very good evening ;)
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