Using OR's to determine connections intentions

One of the key ingredients in form study has to be making an assessment of the connections intentions in placing their horse in any given race. Without having connections in every stable, the width and breadth of the land you might feel that this is an impossible task. As the driving force (in most cases) by connections is keeping the horse on an official rating that will keep it competitive. Using the OR is probably one of the most transparent tools we have in our arsenal and by monitoring how competitive a horse has been over any particular trip in comparison to the company it faces today will give you as good an insight as you can get.

Before looking at today’s cards lets take a retrospective look at yesterday’s Kempton Park All Weather card: Using the parameters of under 3 lengths = competitive and a tolerance of ½ furlong (110yds) as a tolerance on the trip (All Weather surface only).

3:00: Little to choose between Cathederal (66) Candy Kitten (67) RESULT: Cathederal 1ST 7-2

3:30 Only Dazzling Valentine (68) previously competitive over the trip RESULT Dazzling Valentine 1ST 11-2

4:00 (3yo) Only Crystallized (55) previously competitive over the trip RESULT Crytallized 4th 7-2

4:30 New Leyf (79) has been competitive of the highest OR RESULT New Leyf 4th 20-1

5:00 Castel Del Diablo (98) has been competitive of the highest OR RESULT Castel Del Diablo 1ST 6-1

5:30 Baltic Fire (58) and Byron Gala (58) RESULT Baltic Fire 2nd 10-1 btn nk

   

I would suggest that the better results will come when applid to 4yo+ Class 5-6 Handicaps (breads and butter race) where horses have reached a level of maturity and are not improving 2yo – 3yo’s. 

Kempton Park 1st April 2014

Have a great day ;)