Where did that horse come from and why is it here today?

Yesterdays SP returns might have you thinking there were some shock wins on the Kempton Park All Weather card, while earlier in the day Southwell played host to 5 winning favourites including 1-7 on Stand Guard.

In what became a farcical 2 runner race after 5 of the original 7 absconded, Stand Guard notched up its 26^th win on the All Weather, beating China Castles long standing record of 25. A victory somewhat marred by questions over the grounds given to the stewards by the 5 Trainers withdrawing their horses, some at very short notice. This once again made a complete mockery of the Rule 4 imposed!

I am sure that there were not many that felt the 1-7 on offer constituted any value but £700 to win £100 in a race that barring mishap was a fore gone conclusion constitutes value to me. The odds of a mishap befalling Stand Guard would have been far smaller.

There is obviously better returns for your money if you know where to look and Kempton Park did justice to that theory last night. Nubar Boy winning the opener at 12-1 would have left many scratching their heads but perhaps if you were made aware that 50% of horses that have Nubar Boy’s LTO profile have won when competing in races of this nature at Kempton Park, he must be considered a lively candidate. 

Profiling horses in this way would need further consideration with regard to quality of opposition and my speed figures prior to adjustment denoted by the * were sufficient to get involved. The nearest profile rival in the race Hierarch weighed in with a score of 26%.

Again in the 8:25, The Actuary top rated after adjustment Adiynara (102.0%) was well clear of its nearest rival Ssafa (100.8%), Adiynara also carried the best profile rating of 42.9% with Ssafa, its nearest rival recording 25%.

Needless to say I have no intention giving away the criteria's I am using alongside my speed handicap ratings but the use of some imagination wont leave you far adrift. As an example: It is unlikely you would want to get heavily involved in a horse with a high speed rating LTO over two miles in a Class 6 Maiden who is turned out 2 days later in a 10 furlong Class 5 Handicap.

The wins of Nubar Boy 12-1 and Adiynara at 16-1 were both hard fought victories, but if you believe that understanding the connections intentions with a horse are critical, start looking at where they have come from and why are they here today. The connections are not always spot on so there will always be some bumps and bruises along the way but when winners come at these prices you can afford them ;)

There is one horse at Wolverhampton tonight with a profile score of 50% and is highly rated on my speed figures. If you would like its name leave your email address below and it SHOULD direct you to the horse :)

Name:

Email:

We respect your email privacy

Have a great day :)