Welcome to a wet and windy Southwell and 2014

I was unable to make head or tails of some of yesterday’s results at Lingfield Park and it wasn't until I did the returns for the meeting that all became clear. The last three meetings at the course have seen times get progressively faster (easier to manage) and this is borne out when you consider that the 3:30 had 7 horses finishing within 3 lengths of each other: The 3:00 had 6 horses finish within 3 lengths of each other: The 2:30 had 9 horses finish within 3 lengths of each other: The 2:00 had 4 horses finish within 1.75 lengths of each other: The 1:30 saw 4 horses finish within 2.25 lengths of each other: The 1:00 had 4 horses finish within 3 lengths of each other.

You would think that results like this would lend themselves nicely to laying the field but even in the 2:30 where 9 horses finished within 3 lengths in running prices didn't collapse to the degree expected.

Today: With Persian Peril taken out of the 12:15 Southwell we are left with only Push Me with previous here and as it has not pulled up any trees I would be happier siding with PERIVALE who’s Sire Street Cry has a least seen a winner over the trip in this grade.

The 1:25 looks a match between Masterful Act and RETURNTOBRECONGILL on my figures, but we do have the unknown quantities of Layl, Mica Mika and Magika to consider and breeding looks to offer nothing to assist in weighing up their respective chances. RETURNTOBRECONGILL has the advantage of putting in its best performances over today’s trip and gets the nod on that basis.

Previous performances on this surface would suggest that several appear to be punching above their weight in Southwells 2:00. We have the unknown quantities of Jiroft, Prohibit and Tax Free. Even Stevens and ROYAL BAJAN make the most appeal for me with the later having raced creditably in this grade when beaten by Bedloes Island ½ length on its pen-ultimate start. With Bedloes Island being withdrawn ROYAL BAJAN has sound claims if able to reproduce that form.

It would be stretching the imagination somewhat to think that The Dandy Yank or Highland Princess could take this on past performances and why the former is favourite of the back of a 12 length beating in to second when last seen here beggars belief. I am happier to side with JALEBI at a more attractive price and breeding in its favour on this surface.

We have a 50-50 split in the 3:10 with 3 having run previously here and 3 débutantes. Little Big Man looks to set the bar but although I would be happier with another furlong I am hopeful that TRINITY LORRAINE can show enough early speed to stay on their coat-tails and finish with a flourish.

Have a great day and everything you wish for yourselves in 2014 BUT be careful what you wish for ;)

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