Dundalk All Weather Speed Ratings - Friday 31st January 2014

31st January 2014 Dundalk
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 5:45 Dundalk Stadium Racecourse Of The Year Handicap 5f
100.6%	*	Grey Danube	98.1%	(4)
99.3%	*	Queen Grace	98.5%	(7)
99.3%		Above The Law	97.3%	(3)
98.8%		Under Review	97.9%	(3)
98.5%		Antiquus	98.6%	(1)
97.6%		Ability N Delivery	97.4%	(7)
97.4%		Knock Stars	98.6%	(7)
96.2%		Sylvan Mist	98.2%	(2)
		Ask Dad

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Ratings - Friday 31st January 2014

31st January 2014 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 4:50 Coral Mobile "Just Three Clicks To Bet" Apprentice Handicap Cl6 1m1f103y
101.9%		Outlaw Torn	99.8%	(6)		❶
101.6%		Dubai Celebration	101.1%	(3)		❶
101.0%		Minstrel Lad	101.6%	(2)		❶
100.7%		Camerooney	99.7%	(1)
100.3%		Mosman	100.6%	(4)		❶
100.3%		No Win No Fee	99.3%	(1)
99.3%	*	Kindlelight Storm				❷
98.7%		Sixties Queen	99.0%	(1)
97.7%		Jumbo Prado				❶
95.6%		Yourinthewill	99.8%	(14)		❶

Lingfield Park All Weather Speed Ratings - Friday 31st January 2014

31st January 2014 Lingfield Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 1:00 Ladbrokes Claiming Stakes Cl6 7f
101.4%	*	Mr David	99.5%	(5)		❶
100.8%		Seek The Fair Land	100.4%	(13)		❶
100.3%		Capaill Liath	99.7%	(3)		❶
99.7%		Jubilee Brig	99.7%	(1)
99.5%		Bay Knight
99.2%		Kuanyao	100.1%	(4)		❸
98.1%		Niger				❶
97.8%		Prince Of Burma	99.3%	(7)
96.2%		The Mongoose	99.2%	(8)

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Ratings - Thursday 30th January 2014

30th January 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 4:50 BetVictor NonRunner No Bet Cheltenham 2014 Apprentice Handicap Cl5 1m
102.0%		Jewelled				❷
100.2%	*	Greensward	98.3%	(2)		❶
100.2%		Gracious George	99.8%	(1)		❶
100.0%		Queen Aggie
99.9%		Emman Bee	99.1%	(4)
99.8%		Just One Kiss				❶
99.2%		Hierarch	99.8%	(6)		❶
98.7%		Ancient Greece	100.6%	(1)
98.6%		Shaunas Spirit	99.1%	(11)		❶
		Collodi
		Vanvitelli				❶

Southwell All Weather Speed Ratings - Thursday 30th January 2014

30th January 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 1:30 Best Odds At bookmakers.co.uk Handicap Cl6 5f
100.5%	*	Ysper	100.5%	(1)		❷
99.8%		Dancing Freddy	100.0%	(12)		❶
99.8%		Sir Geoffrey	98.2%	(9)		❶
99.7%		Guishan				❷
99.0%		Cadeaux Pearl	99.5%	(7)
98.7%		Imjin River	99.7%	(3)		❶
98.2%		Fairy Wing	97.6%	(2)		❷
97.1%		Flirtinaskirt	98.6%	(2)		❶
		Iffranesia
		Catflap

The Actuary All Weather Horse Racing Tips - Week 4 Report

A week of consolidation as we moved our profit on to +£2,231.18 to £10 stakes. Week 4 definitely proved to be an interesting week where a few expected but unwelcome scenarios played out in the early days putting the strategy of Betfair ‘place’ bets on the exchanges to the test. We also experienced the first week where Betfair outperformed BOG Bookmakers. As this was also the first complete week of ordering on Betfair at 15% above Bookmakers opening shows it might be a sign of things to come. 

BOOKMAKERS: A poor return with the Bookmakers due to the string of horses that could only manage a place in the opening three days. In comparison the final four days provided us with just short of +£200 allowing us to put our nose in front on the line courtesy of Putin 12-1 and Cosquillos 11-1.

BETFAIR WIN: A pleasant surprise in that this week we made some inroads into what was an increasing gap over the first three weeks between Bookmakers returns and Betfair returns. No surprise that is was due to orders matched on winning outsiders with some of this ground being made up with the win of Putin and most notably Cosquillos who was available at 17.00 at the time of the opening Bookmakers show of 11-1.

BETFAIR PLACE: I have no intention to act on such a small snapshot but other than the highlight of Prince Of Passion being placed and returning a reasonable profit, all too frequently we are failing to return all of our lost win stake with 'place' bets. I would have been hopeful that during the opening three days we would have seen a return sufficient enough to at least half win loses where it has only compounded loses over the three days. Although we have seen a £292.32 profit on place bets over the 4 weeks I intend to monitor the in-play markets over the coming weeks to see if there is sufficient movement and liquidity to consider this as an alternative option.

WEEK 4 SUMMARY (£10 STAKES):

BOOKMAKERS   +£16.02

BETFAIR WIN:     +£61.18

BETFAIR PLACE: -£2.28

TOTAL:                          +£74.92

2014 SUMMARY (£10 STAKES):

BOOKMAKERS:  +£1034.75

BETFAIR WIN:     +£904.12

BETFAIR PLACE: +£292.32

TOTAL:                   +£2,231.18

Time to batten down the hatches with no fewer than 7 meetings over the next three days to finish the month :)

http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-actuary-all-weather-horse-racing.html

Kempton Park All Weather Speed Ratings - Wednesday 29th January 2014

29th January 2014 Kempton Park
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 4:50 kempton.co.uk Handicap Cl7 1m2f
100.2%		Catching Zeds
100.1%	*	Snowy Valley	98.2%	(1)
99.8%		Kyle Of Bute	99.3%	(2)
99.7%		Waving
99.7%		Bapak Pesta				❸
99.5%		Novel Dancer	98.4%	(1)		❶
99.0%		Guardi				❶
98.9%		Kindia	99.6%	(2)		❶
98.8%		Total Obsession
98.2%		Beauchamp Sunset
97.8%		Finlodex	99.8%	(1)		❶
97.7%		Vergality Ridge
96.7%		Addikt	100.7%	(3)
96.4%		Tammis				❷

Bookies get bloody nose while Stand Guard romps home,

What was likely to be the story from yesterday’s racing was the eagerly awaited race where 24 times All Weather winner La Estrella was pitted against 23 times All Weather winner Stand Guard. When you consider that the lack of quality is given so much emphasis in the world of horse racing, it seemed rather curious that the focus of attention was on the All Weather at Southwell in a Class 6 Seller. I was very mistaken in thinking I was alone in relishing the prospect since the declarations were made.

Not that I have a favourite but I had pinned my colours firmly to the mast of Stand Guard due to the race conditions and had availed myself of enough 11-10 to feel reasonably satisfied. Then came the Don Cantillon bombshell first through Simon Mapletoft of ATR and then live on camera. La Estrella had rolled over banging its head causing bleeding from the nose. By order of the BHA vet La Estrella was withdrawn from the race!

In all the anticipation it hadn’t escape my mind that one of the two would cry-off and after the bullish pre-race interviews from both trainers I was not overly surprised with events. It would appear that the BHA are equally sceptical. Here is the report from the BHA website:

The Stewards held an Enquiry into the circumstances leading to the late withdrawal of LA ESTRELLA (USA) by the gelding’s trainer, Don Cantillon, under a Veterinary Certificate issued by the BHA Veterinary Officer. They interviewed the Veterinary Officer, the Senior Veterinary Surgeon and an Equine Welfare and Integrity Officer. Having heard their evidence, the Stewards ordered a report to be forwarded to the British Horseracing Authority.

I am sure there was many a punter hoping that Stand Guard may be turned over by the one remaining runner of the original five, Bix but 7lb claimer Jordan Hibberd did little to help that cause ridding tight up against the rail and it took little effort for Stand Guard to canter by. If there was an upside, it was being paid out at around 1-2 after a Rule 4 on a horse returning at 1-66.

Have a great day with Kempton this evening and watch out for non-runners 

http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2014/01/what-was-likely-to-be-story-from.html

Southwell All Weather Speed Figures - Tuesday 28th January 2014

28th January 2014 Southwell
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 1:20 32Red.com Amateur Riders´ Handicap Cl5 1m6f
101.3%	*	Mediterranean Sea	99.4%	(8)
99.7%		Brunello	98.6%	(2)
99.6%		Royal Trooper				❻
98.6%		Adili
98.3%		Honest Strike
97.5%		Diamond Pro	97.5%	(1)
96.0%		Luctor Emergo
		Luckster

Backing two horses in a race and getting the ultimate result!

There is always that race where you find it impossible to separate two horses. When the prices are big enough the sensible solution is simply take them both and accept, as they both can’t win, you will be dropping a point on your return. Over the past couple of weeks having two selections in a race has been a common occurrence for subscribers to The Actuary All Weather Horse Racing Tips and I know from past experience that any attempt in settling for one or the other can be fool hardy and the odds are that you will only get it right 50% of the time.

As my four selection methods are mechanical, what tends to happen is that one method throws up one horse while another method throws up another. This was the case yesterday in Wolverhampton’s 3:40. One horse I took at 11-1 and between 16 – 14.5 on the exchanges (Cosquillos). The other 6-1 Bookmakers and 8’s on the exchanges (Warbrook).

Most of my work is carried out the day before so I seldom have to suffer the slings and arrows delivered by the racing pundits to stain my view, but it was poignant yesterday that pre-race ATR’s Simon Mapletoft is telling me that one of my two selections can’t win. ‘Warbrook racing of a mark of 66 and is in the sales next month’ dampened my thoughts of its chances.

To have the pair duelling, fighting out a head bobbing finish was more than any punter could ask for. To then have the good fortune where the bigger priced of the two prevails was even more satisfying. Hats off to Simon Mapletoft, Warbrook didn’t win, it was beaten a head by our other selection Cosquillos. Should I mind that my 11-1 became 10-1 and my 16 on the exchanges was worth only 15? I think not.

Now to sort out Stand Guard and La Estrella ;)

Have a great day Folks and may the best horse win

http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2014/01/backing-two-horses-in-race-and-getting.html

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Monday 27th January 2013

27th January 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 2:40 Compare Bookmakers At bookmakers.co.uk Amateur Riders´ Handicap Cl6 5f216y
99.8%		Consistant	99.2%	(12)
99.0%		Masked Dance
98.9%		Volito	98.7%	(3)
98.9%		Methaaly	99.7%	(39)
98.7%	*	Homeboy	99.0%	(2)
98.7%		Saktoon				❺
98.3%		Red Star Lady	98.1%	(3)
98.2%		Amis Reunis	99.0%	(4)
98.0%		Busy Bimbo	97.3%	(3)		❶
97.7%		Rose Garnet	100.9%	(1)		❶
97.0%		Kneesy Earsy Nosey				❶
95.7%		Lutine Charlie
		True That				❷

Wolverhampton All Weather Speed Figures - Sunday 26th January 2013

26th January 2013 Wolverhampton
The Actuary All  Weather speed ratings are based purely on a time perspective with  no weight adjustment and are compiled by The Actuary. To the left: Level of performance  on last run. To the right: Previous performances over course and distance, in brackets,  the number of course and distance runs considered. * denotes top rated horse prior to  any going adjustment. Figures are available to monthly subscribers the evening before  each UK All Weather meeting. ❶ Is The Actuary's 1-9 (9 being high) assessment of the  merits of the 'Sire' over today's conditions. 1:50 bookmakers.co.uk Median Auction Maiden Stakes Cl6 5f20y
98.1%		Cheeky Peta´S	96.8%	(3)
98.0%		Busy Bimbo	97.2%	(8)		❷
97.9%	*	Misty Sparkler
97.8%		The Doyle Machine				❶
97.5%		Avondream				❶
97.3%		Mahon Falls	97.3%	(1)
96.0%		Chuckamental	96.2%	(1)		❶
		Oriental Maid				❶