Do not get suckered by the Southwell cliches!

It is easy to fall in the the trap when hearing something enough from different quarters to start believing what you hear. How many times do we hear the statement:

'Southwell favour those horses with previous form on the surface'. 

Since September 2013 we have seen 44% of winners having NEVER previously having raced on the surface and a further 11% of winners attempting a trip for the first time. This leaves only the remaining 44% having previously run on the surface. With the vast majority of of races full of horses that HAVE previously raced on the surface only helping to devalue the statement further!

Today: Both Belle Bayardo and FALASTEEN in the Lingfield Park 12:00 have acquitted themselves well in better company but for some reason the former has not backed that form up whereas FALASTEEN has put up its best performances over this trip. The market support for Two In The Pink is notable and I would be expected to be in the mix with the favourite Joyous yet to be tested on the surface.

Outrageous Request has to be respected heading the handicap in the 12:30 but the record over C&D of SWIFT BLADE, Honest Strike and Lacey look more appealing. Lacey has more to do than when scoring LTO and Honest Strike has 100% 2 from 2 over C&D. The superior form looks to be that of SWIFT BLADES 1 length 3^rd over C&D to Bramshill Lass.

I feel the market order it just about right in the 2:00 and LANCELOT DU LAC is a worthy favourite having done little wrong over this trip. I would argue that the race is more competitive than prices suggest and with the likelihood of traffic problems offers poor value.

Cayuga being withdrawn opens up the 3:10 and preference goes to RAKAAN, at 14-1 offers great value if it can live up to its previous C&D form. This is a step up for the favourite Ishikawa and Silver Dixie and Scottish Star and Syncopate offer the greatest threat.

http://horse--racing--tips.blogspot.com/2013/12/do-not-get-suckered-by-southwell-cliches.html