Justification for 20-1 selection and a BRIGHT light at the end of the tunnel

Relief after a torrid week was short lived yesterday after watching 2 point selection, undoubtedly the horse that should have won Lingfields 3:20, Duke Of Destiny fall out the stalls and come the car park route down the straight closing to finish fourth, we had the joy of ARMS (11-2) beating odds on Musaddas before a luckless run from 20-1 TRINITY LORRAINE. Out with the washing in the early stages TRINITY LORRAINE was stopped almost to a standstill as she was getting in to full gear coming down the straight but still managed to recover and pickup enough momentum to regain third.

Both DUKE OF DESTINY and TRINITY LORAINE should be in the winner’s enclosure before long and their finishing times will not necessary do justice to their respective performances. The run of the latter I feel justified her selection even in defeat as we racked up another 5 placed horses.

The bright light at the end of the tunnel for the day came from the ‘Pace and Going’ tables. Acutely aware of the complicated form lines in most of the races overnight, I spent yesterday morning breaking down the performances further by creating tables based upon ‘Distance’, hence no post yesterday! Due to the anomalies Wolverhampton distances create I decided on a tolerance of .5 furlong (110 yards)

What I was looking for were horses that had run above standard over the distance they were competing over today (red bold). Before I am accused of a bad case of after-timing I will also cover today’s races J

NO QUALIFIERS LINGFIELD PARK 12:20, 12:50, 1:20

1:50 The original table for the 1:50 looked like this:

 Considering only runs over the distance the table looked like this:

Although Zugswang wins at 6-1, my view is that as the rating was in a race that fell below the expected 'Pace and Going' required today Zugswang is a 'no bet'

2:20 Original table:

 Considering only runs over the distance the table looked like this:

Although Billy Red has a poor rating at -1.0, having exceeded expectation either side suggest a 66% chance of running above expectations. Speedyfix has also ran above standard at 1.5 but ratings each side gives an indication of the class it needs to run in to be competitive over this trip. Billy Red wins at 8-1.

2:50 Original table:

Considering only runs over the distance the table looked like this:

Sonnetation looks as close to a certainty as you get get and duly wins at 5-2  

   

3:20 Original table:

Considering only runs over the distance the table looked like this:

You may need to watch the video replay of this race to understand why Duke Of Destiny didn't win this race. My view is that the best horse in the race lost it in the tardy start but clearly should have won. Equally the original table clearly defines the winner Scottish Glen as a danger.

3:50 Original table:

Considering only runs over the distance the table looked like this:  

With the 1st, 2nd and 4th unrated a race where we would not have found the winner and with little to choose between Solvanna, Lybica and Barnaby Brook perhaps to competitive to have been involved. Solvanna would have been preferred with the distance rating within the expected 'Pace and Going'

NO QUALIFIERS WOLVERHAMPTON 4:20, 4:50

5:20 Original table:

Considering only runs over the distance the table looked like this:  

Dancing Sal has run above standard in what appears to be a lesser race but by the same criteria that ruled at backing Zugswang, Dancing Sal is a no bet.

5:50 Original table:

Considering only runs over the distance the table looked like this:

As with Dancing Sal, Jolly Red Jeanz is a 'no bet' endorsed further by the higher expectation in this race.

6:20 Original table:

 Considering only runs over the distance the table looked like this:

Wilhana just fails to qualify as per previous two races but you may take the view has sound place claims.

6:50 Original table:

Considering only runs over the distance the table looked like this:

And we have a qualifier in Fortinbras! Fortinbras wins at 13-2

7:20 Original table:

 Considering only runs over the distance the table looked like this:

Chookie Royale qualifies and finishes 2nd beaten 7 lengths but we do have extenuating circumstances and it was a surprise to many that after a hard race on the previous day that Chookie Royale took its place in the line up.

In summary: Throwing out 6-1 winner Zugswang, pin pointed were Billy Red 1st 8-1, Sonnetation 1st 5-2, Duke Of Destiny 4th 5-2 (should have won), Fortinbras 1st 13-2.

So, what of today?

Good luck and have a GREAT weekend