Is finding 9-1 winners always this easy?

Finding 9-1 winners isn't always this easy but it was staring readers in the face yesterday in Kempton Parks 8:15 just from looking at the figures and a quick form check.   

But first, before we get in to the nuts and bolts of why, I need to clear up a few things. One of the biggest misconception of The Actuary speed figures is the belief that the top rated on LTO (last time out) performance is the horse being championed. If only racing could be that simple!

Although the LTO may provide evidence of recent good, indifferent or bad form, it is important to remember that the LTO figure could have been achieved over any distance on any of the All Weather tracks, with the exception of Southwell which is compiled in isolation.

The ideal scenario would be to have collaborating evidence of whether a horse is likely to attain this figure over C&D (course and distance). This information is not always available and dependent on the make-up of the race with regard to the competition shouldn't be seen as a pre-requisite for a bet. But the information was available in Kempton Parks 8:15.

The ratings were::

Mishrif top rated with 101.6. Its C&D rating was short of this at 100.5. This rating was taken from 6 C&D runs so it is fairly conclusive that it will not run to 101.6. As its nearest rival on LTO was rated 100.4 perhaps it wouldn't need to to win the race.

What casts more doubt on Mishrif's potential in the race is that there are two horses, Silver Lace 101.3 and Bowstar 100.9 having superior C&D ratings. The latter is from 3 races and the former from 1 race.

With no more than a quick glance at Bowstar and Silver Lace's form line you can see that Bowstar has a tougher task than when recording the 100.9. OR 62 not 60, 8f, Class 6, 0-65 Handicap not 0-60 handicap. Silver Lace has the conditions exactly the same as its previous C&D win when the 101.3 figure was achieved i.e. OR 62, 8f, Class 6, 0-65 Handicap, having then raced in 4 consecutive Class 5's. Silver Lace is well down the order on LTO ratings which was recorded over 7f, but over 8f, with these race conditions looked the most likely winner, and given this evidence would YOU ignore it?

n.b. After compiling the returns for the meeting I must admit feeling rather smug when Silver Lace returned a 101.3 and equally smug that Bowstar finishing 3rd at 16-1. But life is seldom perfect and I am scratching my head on how Elusive Waters managed to split them!

Another similar opportunity looks likely this evening and has caught Paddy Power out after offering an opening show of 16-1! But I.m sure you can work this one out for yourselves ;)