Hot bet for Wolverhamptons 4:30

As we are taking a trip to Wolverhampton today it is well worth noting the slow times recorded from the last meeting on Friday 13th September. The times returned would suggest that the course will be running on the testing side of standard today and it would be wise to factor this in to any selections.

The one race I believe where conditions may play a major part in deciding the outcome is the 4:30.  

Avatar Star's neck beating of Marmalady over 7 furlongs back in August may appear solid form given the latter has racked up two wins since, but Marmalady's subsequent wins came over 6 furlongs in class 6 casting some doubt over the form value in this company.  

The Great Gabrial has been bounced around all over the place regarding trip in 2013 having tackled 6 furlongs to 12 furlongs on the All Weather. There is no doubt that today's 7 furlongs looks its optimum trip and I believe The Great Gabrial offers the most threat to the selection. 

The horse that takes my eye is BURNING DAWN who put in its best effort over C&D last time out. Unlike Avatar Star and The Great Gabrial who are stepping up to Class 5, BURNING DAWN is stepping down from Class 4. 

For a horse that has won over 6 furlongs Jamie Spencer found it hard going over 7 furlongs from the off before BURNING DAWN came back on to the bridle and was seen doing its best work in the closing stages. If getting involved expect to have your heart in your mouth and a late flourish from this selection.     

Also worthy of note, on the previous day MEGALEKA in Wolverhampton's 8:30 came from the rear of the field and continued to close all the way to the line to finish 3rd over the minimum trip. MEGALEKA has an entry on 19th over 5 furlongs at Ayr on what is likely to be testing ground which may play to its strengths. When this horse re-appears on the All Weather I will only be interested when tackling 6 furlongs.