THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 26th March KEMPTON PARK- 27th March WOLVERHAMPTON- 29th March WOLVERHAMPTON - 30th March LINGFIELD PARK, KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 31st March WOLVERHAMPTON & CHELMSFORD CITY - 1ST aPRIL LINGFIELD PARK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 2nd April KEMPTON PARK -

Methodical Processes v Human Intuition

With a very profitable August to date and one of our two selections winning at Wolverhampton advised at 6-1 yesterday, you would easily be forgiven for thinking all was smiling faces at El Actuary Casa.

Having spent the vast majority of the day out clutching a dead Blackberry; my only form of communication with the outside world, I was blissfully unaware of the day's horse racing results until arriving back home. As always, my first port of call was to check results and watch the re-runs. Watching the 3:45 my heart sank and the day took on a new perspective.

When compiling the figures for the meeting the day before I had been given a dilemma in the 3:45. With only 8 runners (later reduced to 7) I had three horses all qualifying under the 'Speed and Class' criteria and was left pondering on whether to simply put up 3 selections in the race or, to select what I believed to be the strongest of the three.

Considering that my whole Horse Racing ethos is centered around methodical processes which take poor human judgement out of the equation I opted to do completely the reverse!

The Three horses and ratings were: Summer Dream 40.0, Miss Avonbridge 35.3, Al Freej 34.8 with 30.0 being the qualifying rating. Although I was aware that at the opening prices at level stakes a profit could be made by taking all three, further endorsed by my figures suggesting the winner was likely to come from one of them, I felt uncomfortable with how 3 selections in such a small field would be viewed by subscribers.

My intuition: opt for the highest rated. This decision and poor judgement was compounded as I watched all three, almost in a line as they flashed past the post with Al Freej winning at 7-1 and potentially providing a 5 point profit with the selection finishing the poorer of the three.

Never again! If I put up three selections in a 7 horse race, understand the reason. God forbid that all three should fail to land the prize!

Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Methodical Processes v Human Intuition

With a very profitable August to date and one of our two selections winning at Wolverhampton advised at 6-1 yesterday, you would easily be forgiven for thinking all was smiling faces at El Actuary Casa.

Having spent the vast majority of the day out clutching a dead Blackberry; my only form of communication with the outside world, I was blissfully unaware of the day's horse racing results until arriving back home. As always, my first port of call was to check results and watch the re-runs. Watching the 3:45 my heart sank and the day took on a new perspective.

When compiling the figures for the meeting the day before I had been given a dilemma in the 3:45. With only 8 runners (later reduced to 7) I had three horses all qualifying under the 'Speed and Class' criteria and was left pondering on whether to simply put up 3 selections in the race or, to select what I believed to be the strongest of the three.

Considering that my whole Horse Racing ethos is centered around methodical processes which take poor human judgement out of the equation I opted to do completely the reverse!

The Three horses and ratings were: Summer Dream 40.0, Miss Avonbridge 35.3, Al Freej 34.8 with 30.0 being the qualifying rating. Although I was aware that at the opening prices at level stakes a profit could be made by taking all three, further endorsed by my figures suggesting the winner was likely to come from one of them, I felt uncomfortable with how 3 selections in such a small field would be viewed by subscribers.

My intuition: opt for the highest rated. This decision and poor judgement was compounded as I watched all three, almost in a line as they flashed past the post with Al Freej winning at 7-1 and potentially providing a 5 point profit with the selection finishing the poorer of the three.

Never again! If I put up three selections in a 7 horse race, understand the reason. God forbid that all three should fail to land the prize!