40-1 boil-over in Wolverhampton opener

There was little to be gleaned on the backing exercise discussed in my post ‘Excellent Puck at a reasonable price!‘ on Saturday’s Wolverhampton card.  With two boil-overs in four of the races of interest to subscribers: Magical Speedfit 40-1 taking the opener and Idol Deputy 20-1 in the 8:45, the one thing that was immediately evident from the exercise was under-cooking my Betfair orders.

No surprise that there was insufficient liquidity in the place markets at the overnight stage to have any of my orders matched but I was surprised to find them matched early morning (Pre 07:00 a.m.)  having gone in at ¼ of the BOG win odds.

This proved costly in the case of Going French who placed at 16-1 after drifting from an overnight price of 11-1. I appreciate this will never be an exact science but having been matched so early would suggest that perhaps we should set the bar higher than ¼ of the BOG win odds.

I am sure that putting an order in at 1/3 of the BOG win price will be over optimistic so I will aim for a happy medium of 2/7 on tomorrow’s selections.