Shock and Surprise for The Actuary Horse Racing Tips

There are several questions that followers of horse racing feel they know the answer to without doing any research to ensure that their assumptions are correct. These conclusions are drawn from experience and common sense. Sometimes you find that these hard held common sense beliefs carry no validity on closer scrutiny!

        

Having seen Rosie’s Lady winning with consummate ease on 1^st January over Wolverhampton’s extended mile at the 17^th time of asking, returning at a price (11-2) that would suggest that this was no surprise, then following up on the 7^th January over 12 furlongs, winning in a even more impressive style than previously, clearing away from the field with little more than a shake of the reins. I was surprising to me that David O’Meara went to the well yet again on the 8^th January, even more surprised by the return to Wolverhampton’s extended mile.

It did leave me asking the question what is the optimum recovery time for a horse running middle distances. A sprinter running on successive days seems plausible but middle distances I am not so sure.

Rosie’s Lady went in to the race 7^th January on the back of running to standard over the extended mile on the 1^st. She then showed marginal improvement over 1.1/2 miles in a weak race with un-rated Seawood, who could be anything and Actuary top rated Landown Littlerock taking the places.   

The race on the following day (8^th January) looked a different proposition with more competitive depth on LTO ratings and C&D. As Rosie’s Lady was smashed in to during the day I had commented to a colleague how attractive the 8-1 price of Kyllachykov was becoming.

Last night I spent the evening looking at days between runs in relation to The Actuary selections and was dumb founded by my findings.

·         There were a total of three horses in the last year that had run the following day that were Actuary selections including Rosie’s Lady, none had won.

·         From four selections that ran within two days there was only one winner.

Here is where it gets interesting!

·         Of the thirteen horses that ran again between 3 and 5 days 9 had won. That is 69%!

BUT here is the total shocker,

·         Of the thirteen horses that ran again between 3 and 5 there was  one winner from five selections over sprint distances (5f-6f) compared to a perfect 100% record from 7 furlongs and up. 5 of them were in the last month!