Continuing on from yesterdays post, below is a breakdown by age group with a view to highlighting whether there is a shift as 3 yo horses continue to mature.
August is showing more or less a 50-50 split between 3yo winners and older horses in 3yo+ races with a majority of the profit coming from the older age group.
September sees a slight shift towards winning older horses (42) but not of any major significance whereas there is a dramatic shift in the P&L in favor of the 3yo group.
In October we see the biggest shift where almost 2 of every 3 3yo+ races being won by a 3yo. I do not want to pre-empt what is happening regarding the negative P&L but I am sure I will find this will be inline with trainers starting to drop horses that have not previously run on the surface in to weak races where they believe their charge will be more than competitive.
I have made some considerations in removing races where a 3yo+ race has only 3yo entrance and also where 3yo+ races have no 3yo entrance but some allowance needs to be made, a measurement taken on the balance between 3yo and older horses appearing in any month.
Today my task will be to see whether the winning frequency of horses un-raced on the surface (unrated) increase at this time of the year and more importantly based upon previous years, when does this trend plateau.
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