Even after a 4 year history of profit, when results are less than satisfactory for an extended period I continually beat myself up, question and query what I am doing, where improvements can be made, where things may be going wrong.
The dilemma and danger is that in making changes to compensate for short poor periods may undo the hard work and success seen over longer periods.
Although I feel that what I am currently doing will last the annals of time I am yet to exhaust new angles to exploit and I still come down my stairs each morning with fresh ideas. Some merely fanciful, others deserve closer scrutiny and invariably lead me on in to different directions.
Last night and this morning I was looking at what part the change in the race type by calendar plays in the make-up of a races.
The above chart references ONLY those races we played in NOT every race run during that particular month.
Although August shows a profit through each age group with the glut of races falling under the heading 3yo+ it is interesting to see that a small volume of 4yo+ races show a disproportion profit. It comes as no surprise that 2yo and 3yo races deliver the smallest profit with 2yo races delivering 0.61 point profit per race (11 points profit from 18 races) and the poorest performer, 3yo races delivering only 0.36 points per race.
September also sees 2yo and 3yo races as the worst performers but we are now looking at a loss. 3yo+ and 4yo+ both continue to profit. The most noticeable shift is the 3yo+ race volumes rises to 88 but delivers a much smaller ratio profit.
In hindsight perhaps it should not be so surprising that Octobers increase in 2yo and 3yo race types result in the current deficits. More disappointing is the performance in 3yo+ race types as this race type seems to mirror our fortunes.
I do not want to pre-empt what I think I am going to find as I analyse 3yo+ races in isolation today but expect to see an increase in 3yo winners as the possible cause.
I will post my findings with a full list of favourable race types tomorrow which currently highlight Eastern Hills, Veloso and Miss Dashwood as the best potential among the selections sent out last night.
The dilemma and danger is that in making changes to compensate for short poor periods may undo the hard work and success seen over longer periods.
Although I feel that what I am currently doing will last the annals of time I am yet to exhaust new angles to exploit and I still come down my stairs each morning with fresh ideas. Some merely fanciful, others deserve closer scrutiny and invariably lead me on in to different directions.
Last night and this morning I was looking at what part the change in the race type by calendar plays in the make-up of a races.
Although August shows a profit through each age group with the glut of races falling under the heading 3yo+ it is interesting to see that a small volume of 4yo+ races show a disproportion profit. It comes as no surprise that 2yo and 3yo races deliver the smallest profit with 2yo races delivering 0.61 point profit per race (11 points profit from 18 races) and the poorest performer, 3yo races delivering only 0.36 points per race.
September also sees 2yo and 3yo races as the worst performers but we are now looking at a loss. 3yo+ and 4yo+ both continue to profit. The most noticeable shift is the 3yo+ race volumes rises to 88 but delivers a much smaller ratio profit.
In hindsight perhaps it should not be so surprising that Octobers increase in 2yo and 3yo race types result in the current deficits. More disappointing is the performance in 3yo+ race types as this race type seems to mirror our fortunes.
I do not want to pre-empt what I think I am going to find as I analyse 3yo+ races in isolation today but expect to see an increase in 3yo winners as the possible cause.
I will post my findings with a full list of favourable race types tomorrow which currently highlight Eastern Hills, Veloso and Miss Dashwood as the best potential among the selections sent out last night.
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