Today was the first time I would see whether my theory on adjusting 3yo ratings, based upon potential improvement since its LTO, would hold any water in real-time rather than a retrospective view.
The race in question, Wolverhampton’s 6:10; the horse, 7-2 favourite Shestheman. To say I was supremely confident was an understatement. Having taken all the 7-1 available earlier in the day I would have felt reasonably comfortable in spending my winnings before the race - Yes, that confident! The bet wasn't made on the strength of filling the above criteria but as one of today’s Actuary selections.
There are times when watching a race when you instinctively know from the horses’ position that things are not going to work out. Shestheman broke on terms but Father Ted made little effort to hold a positive position. At the 3 furlong pole he could be seen to be bouncing up and down like a rubber ball before dropping to the rear of the field. Race over!
BUT that’s not the end of the story. Not known for my spontaneity as I am more the careful, calculating type, moments before the off in the last race I noted the following.
Above in the last column are the figures that I published to the blog. In the middle, the 3yo adjusted figures. We have a tie between 4+ Yungaburra and 3yo Flamborough Breeze. Who should be riding the latter but Father Ted! With speed and dexterity I never knew I had I had logged in to my Bet365 account and placed a bet large enough to soothe the pains of the day away and give me some happy at 10-1.
As they turned for home I had lost any hope of a return. After falling out the stalls and with two furlongs to race Father Ted had managed to beat only the pulled up Green Mountain. In a 6f sprint, from the 5 draw, 2 furlongs out , coming 8 horses wide at the back of the field, does little to inspire any confidence in getting a positive result.
At the furlong pole we had passed two horses and had started to fly but surely too late.
Half a furlong out Flamborough Breeze could have been Pegasus and at the line, a comfortable neck success.
If you are ever asked the question ‘What is the difference between abject misery and happiness?’ I can tell you the answer is a neck!
The race in question, Wolverhampton’s 6:10; the horse, 7-2 favourite Shestheman. To say I was supremely confident was an understatement. Having taken all the 7-1 available earlier in the day I would have felt reasonably comfortable in spending my winnings before the race - Yes, that confident! The bet wasn't made on the strength of filling the above criteria but as one of today’s Actuary selections.
BUT that’s not the end of the story. Not known for my spontaneity as I am more the careful, calculating type, moments before the off in the last race I noted the following.
As they turned for home I had lost any hope of a return. After falling out the stalls and with two furlongs to race Father Ted had managed to beat only the pulled up Green Mountain. In a 6f sprint, from the 5 draw, 2 furlongs out , coming 8 horses wide at the back of the field, does little to inspire any confidence in getting a positive result.
At the furlong pole we had passed two horses and had started to fly but surely too late.
Half a furlong out Flamborough Breeze could have been Pegasus and at the line, a comfortable neck success.
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