THIS WEEKS ALL WEATHER FIXTURES - 26th March KEMPTON PARK- 27th March WOLVERHAMPTON- 29th March WOLVERHAMPTON - 30th March LINGFIELD PARK, KEMPTON PARK & SOUTHWELL - 31st March WOLVERHAMPTON & CHELMSFORD CITY - 1ST aPRIL LINGFIELD PARK & WOLVERHAMPTON - 2nd April KEMPTON PARK -

Don't we all love a happy ending?

Today was the first time I would see whether my theory on adjusting 3yo ratings, based upon potential improvement since its LTO, would hold any water in real-time rather than a retrospective view.

The race in question, Wolverhampton’s 6:10; the horse, 7-2 favourite Shestheman. To say I was supremely confident was an understatement. Having taken all the 7-1 available earlier in the day I would have felt reasonably comfortable in spending my winnings before the race - Yes, that confident! The bet wasn't made on the strength of filling the above criteria but as one of today’s Actuary selections.

Shestheman_7-1

There are times when watching a race when you instinctively know from the horses’ position that things are not going to work out. Shestheman broke on terms but Father Ted made little effort to hold a positive position. At the 3 furlong pole he could be seen to be bouncing up and down like a rubber ball before dropping to the rear of the field. Race over!

BUT that’s not the end of the story. Not known for my spontaneity as I am more the careful, calculating type, moments before the off in the last race I noted the following.

Flamborough_breeze_10-1

Above in the last column are the figures that I published to the blog. In the middle, the 3yo adjusted figures.  We have a tie between 4+ Yungaburra and 3yo Flamborough Breeze. Who should be riding the latter but Father Ted!  With speed and dexterity I never knew I had I had logged in to my Bet365 account and placed a bet large enough to soothe the pains of the day away and give me some happy at 10-1.

As they turned for home I had lost any hope of a return. After falling out the stalls and with two furlongs to race Father Ted had managed to beat only the pulled up Green Mountain. In a 6f sprint, from the 5 draw, 2 furlongs out , coming 8 horses wide at the back of the field, does little to inspire any confidence in getting a positive result.
At the furlong pole we had passed two horses and had started to fly but surely too late.
Half a furlong out Flamborough Breeze could have been Pegasus and at the line, a comfortable neck success.

Flamborough_breeze

If you are ever asked the question ‘What is the difference between abject misery and happiness?’ I can tell you the answer is a neck!  




      

Horse Racing Tips: 14-1 or 13-2?

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Don't we all love a happy ending?

Today was the first time I would see whether my theory on adjusting 3yo ratings, based upon potential improvement since its LTO, would hold any water in real-time rather than a retrospective view.

The race in question, Wolverhampton’s 6:10; the horse, 7-2 favourite Shestheman. To say I was supremely confident was an understatement. Having taken all the 7-1 available earlier in the day I would have felt reasonably comfortable in spending my winnings before the race - Yes, that confident! The bet wasn't made on the strength of filling the above criteria but as one of today’s Actuary selections.

Shestheman_7-1

There are times when watching a race when you instinctively know from the horses’ position that things are not going to work out. Shestheman broke on terms but Father Ted made little effort to hold a positive position. At the 3 furlong pole he could be seen to be bouncing up and down like a rubber ball before dropping to the rear of the field. Race over!

BUT that’s not the end of the story. Not known for my spontaneity as I am more the careful, calculating type, moments before the off in the last race I noted the following.

Flamborough_breeze_10-1

Above in the last column are the figures that I published to the blog. In the middle, the 3yo adjusted figures.  We have a tie between 4+ Yungaburra and 3yo Flamborough Breeze. Who should be riding the latter but Father Ted!  With speed and dexterity I never knew I had I had logged in to my Bet365 account and placed a bet large enough to soothe the pains of the day away and give me some happy at 10-1.

As they turned for home I had lost any hope of a return. After falling out the stalls and with two furlongs to race Father Ted had managed to beat only the pulled up Green Mountain. In a 6f sprint, from the 5 draw, 2 furlongs out , coming 8 horses wide at the back of the field, does little to inspire any confidence in getting a positive result.
At the furlong pole we had passed two horses and had started to fly but surely too late.
Half a furlong out Flamborough Breeze could have been Pegasus and at the line, a comfortable neck success.

Flamborough_breeze

If you are ever asked the question ‘What is the difference between abject misery and happiness?’ I can tell you the answer is a neck!